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Oasisman

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Quote from: ?? on ??

well fuck

Im here to actually see some critics for this TA lol Cheesy

and the OP's reaction got me loled.

Quote from: boyptc on March 12, 2020, 05:35:45 PM

We don't see it coming and it's ok.

The pandemic sure is a big hit around the world making each market very much affectionate to it including bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market. Let's all wait until it stabilizes.

True that!
I was even thinking of some conspiracy theory about the corona virus as a biological weapon to destroy the world market. This whole panic causes the economy to fall, when in fact covid-19 has only small amount of mortality rate compared to the spreading viruses before. The media is overhyped, so does the people in the social media.
Bitcoin is somehow affected by the economic status.

buwaytress

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Quote from: buwaytress on March 10, 2020, 01:41:05 PM

2018 bottom: 3100 (just my memory or thereabouts)
2019 bottom: 3500 (same)

2020 bottom in my frail logic has to be somewhere between the lines of 4000-7000. Especially now with multiple economic pressures all coming together unexpectedly. And yes, it has an effect. People will not be buying/mining when stomachs are hungry and bills need getting paid. I'm not saying it's gonna crash and stay down. Just saying we should prepare to see more trying prices.

Not going to think I've become a genius overnight but yeah, even if we're discounting last night's flash crash to 3,867, we're definitely seeing the lows I'd be expecting from all this pressure that's coming and probably that's yet to come. That WHO announcement was just waiting to happen, and people and markets are reacting exactly as they should.

I do think it's heavily oversold though, and that Fear Index I bet has never seen such low zones as well, they've priced in worst-case scenarios for sure now. But don't expect the correction just so soon. It'll need the news from China to filter out (that cases are actually rapidly coming down) and tell others that you act fast and things get better eventually.

This does fit with the yearly higher low agenda, and if this is the worst that can happen, we're definitely long-term good.

boyptc

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Quote from: ?? on ??

well fuck

We don't see it coming and it's ok.

The pandemic sure is a big hit around the world making each market very much affectionate to it including bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market. Let's all wait until it stabilizes.

fabiorem

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STT

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I was going to add something true in general which is when conclusions and patterns are drawn over years, it does add confidence and accuracy to that conclusion however it also broadens the breadth of that estimate. To imagine we can call a pinpoint price when its taken years to arrive at that point would be massive over confidence.
TA is perfectly valid in a hundred different subjects including price action on competitive markets such as BTC, it can only give a range of probable results never absolute certainty. If you were to be gifted total certainty, you should be a millionaire by xmas with ease because of the sequence of bets you would be able to make. The benefit is to win more often then not were you to ignore statistics and historic data.

A graph such as this is to be taken over a month even a quarter possibly, we are a global market and there is no one unified perfect price imo.

buwaytress

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Well, there we go, the bottom hadn't been reached. Not a fault of the TA though. I mean, coronavirus was not expected and it's an affect-all economic event I keep telling people isn't good for Bitcoin (it's just not good for anything basically unless you buy into population thinning). I'm actually surprised the global pandemic announcement had such an impact (or was it Trump's ban as well compounding) or was this just all a final straw thing breaking the back? If so, we could be gathering a big bounce. All those buy orders triggered gonna be making lots of people happy, I wager.

Reatim

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Quote from: SwayStar123 on March 10, 2020, 07:47:18 AM

We all know the growth curves for bitcoin, but for some reason everyone forgot about them and got crazed by the recent dumps, well what actually was happening was that we were just going to retest the bottom growth curve! (Which is historically the reason for bullruns)

If you look in on smaller timeframes its even more apparent

so this was incorrect right mate,because we have been experiencing $5,500 price now it is more than @2000 below your speculations.

Bullrun won't be coming any time soon for this movement?we won't expect good market if this kind of trend continues.

Quote from: BrewMaster on March 12, 2020, 07:28:56 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

well fuck

don't worry about it. your analysis is still perfectly valid but when the market is dominated by fear and manipulation every logical sense goes out of the window and chaos starts driving the market up and down.

yeah agreed on this,and manipulation seems getting worst nowadays ,after pumping in 2 months now?taking all the bags of money?

Bossian

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Quote from: SwayStar123 on March 10, 2020, 07:47:18 AM

We all know the growth curves for bitcoin, but for some reason everyone forgot about them and got crazed by the recent dumps, well what actually was happening was that we were just going to retest the bottom growth curve! (Which is historically the reason for bullruns)

If you look in on smaller timeframes its even more apparent

Never realized there was such a chart.

Well, the trend is broken.

Charts are a little difficult to read right now, too much emotional decisions in the market. Best thing to do: nothing. Wait.

Next day when the price got somehow more stable, stand back and look left. Tongue

I am sure there are some similar patterns in 2014-2015. Will try to post my findings shortly.

BrewMaster

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Quote from: ?? on ??

well fuck

don't worry about it. your analysis is still perfectly valid but when the market is dominated by fear and manipulation every logical sense goes out of the window and chaos starts driving the market up and down.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on March 12, 2020, 06:26:17 AM

As I write this, bitcoin is at $6336--that's evidence that the market couldn't care less about your technical analysis.

It's true, the markets often enough don't "respect" TA, but this isolated scenario of dumping 25% within an hour (like in October when we pumped 40% in 24 hours) isn't natural what so ever, that much is obvious, whatever the catalyst or cause for dump. However, just because the minority of the time technical analysis "doesn't work", it doesn't invalidate it when it's a minority of the time, just saying Tongue

Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on March 12, 2020, 06:26:17 AM

I also seriously doubt that anyone would have predicted bitcoin being this low back in the very beginning of the year or at the end of 2019.

Actually, the notorious bear Tone Vays has been predicting $5.5K since the beginning of the year, as well as last year. Nearly everyone mocked him for thinking $6.4K wasn't the bottom, and we'd go lower to the 200 Week MA. Just goes to show how often the minorities of analysts will be right, the majority (such as myself) will be wrong.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 10, 2020, 06:17:16 PM

Quote from: exstasie on March 10, 2020, 04:06:23 PM

Quote from: SwayStar123 on March 10, 2020, 07:47:18 AM

We all know the growth curves for bitcoin, but for some reason everyone forgot about them and got crazed by the recent dumps, well what actually was happening was that we were just going to retest the bottom growth curve! (Which is historically the reason for bullruns)

Dragonvslinux beat you to the punch pointing out the logarithmic curve. Tongue

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-close-to-testing-logarithmic-growth-curves-around-74k-5231606

Shut up I didn't call no bottom, this guy did. Someone should send merit immediately for this call, I'm all out (as per).

I'm here to eat my own words Roll Eyes

The Sceptical Chymist

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As I write this, bitcoin is at $6336--that's evidence that the market couldn't care less about your technical analysis. I also seriously doubt that anyone would have predicted bitcoin being this low back in the very beginning of the year or at the end of 2019.

And what happened? The coronavirus scare, which is causing a lot of markets to tank. That's about as close to a black swan event as I can think of, which is something that isn't foretold in the charts. Charts are all past performance anyway. So yeah, $7650 was not the bottom. I'm not sure how low bitcoin is going to go, but I can only hope that it won't be that much lower. Something tells me that it might, however.

el kaka22

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I would totally agree and I don't even know how to read charts or how to do technically analysis or even know what indicators go for and so forth, not that I have no idea exactly but usually not a great expert at it.

I do agree without all of that because price of bitcoin goes down in steps and it has gone down already as much as it can and if you realized it has not gone down under this price for a while now which means the drop has ended 90% chance, and that means we are going to see the bottom at 7650 maybe once or twice more and bounce back again and eventually whales will take the hint and the price will start to go back up like craz yet again. I say 12-13 thousand would be the next logical step when the price bounces back to higher prices again.

STT

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Not sure we have a bottom pricing just yet, the price is indecisive and crossing back and forth across 2 day momentum. No strength, no volume selloff or buy just sideways which means we wait for much more time to tell us its outrun the sellers or we bump into further selling possibly but I dont exactly think its a bottom just from not going down. Sometimes the selling takes a rest and then continues some more. Depends if this recent low was significant longer term as OP suggests, not all of us see the same way I reckon we have to double check support for reasons like that.

Oasisman

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Quote from: Wysi on March 11, 2020, 05:08:59 PM

Yes we might see further fluctuations until the halving and I don't think it will stay at a same value for more than few days and there might be further dump but not as a correction but rather as a manipulation from big players in order to make the most out of it. We need to look at it from a broader point of view rather than going crazy about sudden pump or dump as nothing happens suddenly as its preplanned.

IMHO, this current price declination is more than just a manipulation alone, considering we are facing global economic threat. It could also be the traditional market was falling due to FUD in regard with the corona virus, and some analyst thinks it could be the alleged plustoken scam and dump.
Though, somehow I believed the OP's presentation as there were history about retesting the bottom before going for a surge.

Wysi

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Yes we might see further fluctuations until the halving and I don't think it will stay at a same value for more than few days and there might be further dump but not as a correction but rather as a manipulation from big players in order to make the most out of it. We need to look at it from a broader point of view rather than going crazy about sudden pump or dump as nothing happens suddenly as its preplanned.

BrewMaster

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Quote from: Febo on March 10, 2020, 07:57:51 AM

Whole chart that you presented happened in economic bull market. If recession happen then economic bull market will turn into economic bear market. If Dow Jones goes sub 15000, then $7650 for sure will not be the bottom.

and why do you think that is? bitcoin certainly has nothing to do with Dow Jones or the US stock market for that matter. not to mention that bitcoin was created after the biggest recession of our time and because of it. if anything bitcoin price should shoot up in case a recession happened.
that is not even taking into account US dollar losing value which means bitcoin should go up against it even without gaining any value.

Gozie51

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Quote from: hugeblack on March 10, 2020, 11:30:40 AM

I expect more collapse, because many who are optimistic about halving will start to lose hope and then sell, but I agree with you that this collapse is a new beginning for a wave of rise and prosperity ( this may not happen until the last quarter of this year or the first of next year.)

You have written what is in my mind. I'm also expecting that price will improve after the down side mostly because halving will hit on it and that increase can start happening around the ending of this year with the bear sentiment flying away.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: exstasie on March 10, 2020, 04:06:23 PM

Quote from: SwayStar123 on March 10, 2020, 07:47:18 AM

We all know the growth curves for bitcoin, but for some reason everyone forgot about them and got crazed by the recent dumps, well what actually was happening was that we were just going to retest the bottom growth curve! (Which is historically the reason for bullruns)

Dragonvslinux beat you to the punch pointing out the logarithmic curve. Tongue

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-close-to-testing-logarithmic-growth-curves-around-74k-5231606

Shut up I didn't call no bottom, this guy did. Someone should send merit immediately for this call, I'm all out (as per).

boyptc

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I wish that you're correct but just like their concern, everything is uncertain for now.

I'm also expecting for a lower bottom as it's not been stable for the meanwhile to $7,900. Something might happen within the next few days but hopefully some good news will pop out which will affect allover the market positively.

exstasie

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Quote from: SwayStar123 on March 10, 2020, 07:47:18 AM

We all know the growth curves for bitcoin, but for some reason everyone forgot about them and got crazed by the recent dumps, well what actually was happening was that we were just going to retest the bottom growth curve! (Which is historically the reason for bullruns)

Dragonvslinux beat you to the punch pointing out the logarithmic curve. Tongue

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-close-to-testing-logarithmic-growth-curves-around-74k-5231606

There are other good reasons to bottom there. December monthly pivot, 0.705 retracement, 60-week MA:

Quote from: exstasie on March 09, 2020, 03:04:27 PM

There are 3 things to pay attention to on this chart. Most importantly, we have the December 2019 pivot at $7,693. This monthly resistance was broken to the upside in January. Let's test the idea that "resistance becomes support."

Next, the market has now reached the 0.705 retracement of the December-February bull market. Old school crypto traders are probably familiar with ICT and Brian Beamish and their use of the "Optimal Trade Entry" zone. This is the 0.618 - 0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone. The 0.705 is often a sweet spot for price reversals, so I'm looking for a reaction off this area.

I don't normally track the 60-week MA, but it's very interesting to see how price reacted with it in November-December last year. It provided support 4 times on the weekly chart before the January uptrend began. The market has just now tagged it again.

Not to mention the bullish EW structure, which is unfazed by this run to the $7,000s.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.53902997

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