Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1096. (Read 3314330 times)

not sure about wisdom, but most of the classical market theories don't work as such. scaling, conditioning, structuring them differently would not make them classical as such anymore. it's always good to know the basics though and use that knowledge as much as possible. 
"The roles of supply and demand do not change. The implications of liquidity and leverage do not change." 100% so. those are some examples that are basic, mostly static fundamentals of economics. 

Remember, the lower the price the whales can accumulate, the bigger the profits when they move the price higher again. %%

XMRBTC volume is never going to allow XMR to reach parity, but only asymptote.  Parity and beyond will require direct fiat volume.  We need some diligence on the livecoin.net management, to get XMRUSD flowing.

Another bull run will come when a large accumulator decides to increase their position.  Since our new whale friend is a long term bull, and his disappearing scare walls show that he has been suppressing price, I have to conclude that he plans to force liquidate the shorts, thereby taking their monero and their btc.  Meanwhile he buys cheap, and does not let them cover. Ideally he would seek to squeeze both longs and shorts, alternately.

Alternatively a bull run can come very slowly, creeping, as the economy grows.

The mooted impetus, technical developments, will often trigger grassroots speculation, which is perhaps the least stable form of price support, outside of sheer Ponzi pumping.  It does, however, add to the confidence of hodlers, as well as facilitating adoption in the very long run.

I agree with febo and TrueCryptonaire about volume.  When volume drops enough, it will mean the shorts are exhausted, and ripe for squeezing.

I disagree that classic wisdom doesn't work.  It merely needs to be appropriately conditioned on actual market structure, scaled appropriately, etc. The roles of supply and demand do not change.  The implications of liquidity and leverage do not change.

I am not a trader, but it's difficult not to trade. I would never think I can buy for the current price, but I do it. I want more and I am just a little fish. I believe in Monero. Every coin matters.

XMR is about -20.5 % down in price from it's recent ATH. XMR is thus just slightly touching bear market in classical terms - as a singel traded commodity instead of multiple broad market indexes, wich can also be used to determine a bigger market. although there is no generally agreed upon def of 'bear market' it just simply means: market is down about -20% or more from recent ATH over a period of time (generally 2 months or more). It's a transition period from high investor optimism to widespread investor fear and pessimism. What then usually happens is prices fall and widespread FOMO, FUD, short sighted pessimism causes the market's downward spiral to be self-sustaining. bear markets should never be confused with a price correction! which is a short-term trend that has a duration of fewer than two months. I believe this to be a short-term trend. Not a bear market.

..but.. with crypto currencies, as some here already know, most of the classical market theories DO NOT WORK.
Everything works faster, more unstable, more unpredictable, more volatility. I'm still seeing the situation as a sideway run. Volume was expected to decrease once the feeding frenzy is over. ETH's run is a prime example, much lower volume now, but price has been relatively steady.
another bull run would be unexpected without significant new tech, like a proper GUI now.

-25% from ATH is not that small correction.

I still think it will get a big correction

Last month Monero had 20% of BTC volume and volume was as much as ETH, ETC and LTC together.
We cant expect that to go on. If it would that would mean quite soon BTC = XMR.

I think volume of 10k BTC is huge.

Whatever games go on, we all know where this is going in 2 years

If the volume goes down after crash, it is bullish (the sellers are out of ammo).
If the volume goes down after boom, it is bearish (the buyers are out of ammo).

This weekend is not over yet)

waiting for the price to crash with this low volume

This is most def classic accumulation phase....price is showing great strength at these levels. excellent.

Coinbase transactions coming with HARDFORK ON 21ST of this month = added layer of privacy coming to XMR

RING CT is in testnet right now... = coming in march 2017(maybe earlier)(testing has started now) = even more privacy for XMR

= BULLISH

Some accumulation is reasonable after the rise of Monero.

I agree with the numbers, but that change is evasive and would change the social contract, so not a good idea, I am totaly pro a transaction fee, and I will support it

Price is in decline with decreasing volumes...

Please go up... Or down... This range is boring 

Yup.
Bear in mind the bears are buyers. Bulls can be buyers also but they are not forced to buy unlike the Monero bear community.
If there are too many bears, mining reward is tanking, it means some bears might die when the Margin calls them.

So actually a lot of people bet on falling prices but actually atm less people would win if the price is raising right? So the mass goes for falling prices? Okay, than i go for higher prices Thank u mate

My standard model says the number of such people is 10-15.

But because I don't know many of such, and should know, this means it is possible that there is a Leviathan group controlling a large number of coins (1-2 million or more), which skews the distribution and causes the dearth of pocket whales in the 100k range.