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My chart suggests the following: we can count 5 waves up so an intermediate term impulse could be finished. This would mean a rather deep retracement for the 2nd wave, between 0.5 and 0.618 fibs, or even deeper, as XMR usually likes them. In this scenario, I would expect the low to be in between the end of july and beginning of august, presenting the best buying opportunity since the <.001 prices 7 months ago.
Of course, there is also the possibility that we just go up from here, making highs higher than .0033. In my opinion this has a lower probability than my first scenario due to bitcoin's triangle breakout.
Good luck!
This seems to come down to where the end of the corrective wave (2) is. Has it completed already or is it still in progress?
.0043 is (1) in my chart, .0016 is (2), they are completed. And now we have also completed a smaller degree wave 1 topping at .0033, which means the following 2 will retrace at least 50%-61% (but it can go even lower), roughly around .0024-.0022, where the retracement fib lines are.
The chart is invalidated if
a) price goes above the .0033 before it retraces (but even so, it could be just a variation, where the wave 1 hasn't topped yet, but will not go up a lot more) or
b) price goes below .0016 (start point of this proposed wave 1). This would be very bearish, meaning that this upwards move was a dead cat bounce. It would also mean LLs. I find this possibility highly unlikely both because of the risk-on approach towards the crypto sphere in general, and also everything going on in the XMR world.