Author

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1359. (Read 3314669 times)

legendary
Activity: 1552
Merit: 1047
April 10, 2016, 04:55:12 AM
Well at least you are honest about talking your book.
That's an odd thing to say. I sold 50% of my monero, not 100%. Right now I still stand to gain a lot if the price goes up Smiley It's 50/50 for me, I don't mind either way.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
April 10, 2016, 04:48:07 AM
The market seems to have crashed very quickly and hard. I think monero is especially vulnerable because many hold their coins on the exchange due to lack of GUI wallet. It's a lot easier to panic sell when all you have to do is click a sell button. Having to actually open a cold storage and transfer the funds will make you think twice and result in less dumping overall.

Users who can't run a commando line wallet will probably be less confident in the investment because holding often means keeping funds with third party, and that is risky. Additionally they may lack understanding of the technology. These two things makes them more eager to sell and with easily accessible funds it can contribute to a pretty violent crash like we're seeing right now. It can explain why monero keeps seeing dump after dump, seemingly never ending. The coin is just so damn easy to sell.

Unfortunately we failed pretty hard at breaking 0.0043 a second time, with current low today at 0.00242. This crash wasn't very surprising and despite what has been claimed in this thread earlier (that everyone who sell moneroj regrets it) I'd suspect there are a few people who actually regret not having sold some in the 300k-400k. I personally sold 50% of my coins about 2 weeks ago and wish I sold more. But on the other hand the coins I do own is mostly profit so I can afford the price going both down and up, I'm pretty comfortable with this I'd say.

We could see a bounce up again to maybe ~300k, but the trend is broken now imo. We're probably headed sub 0.002. I am having doubts about 0.001, but it certainly could happen given the right circumstances (e.g btc rally). I consider 100k-200k a good buying range. If we go back to the 300ks I'll have to consider selling a few more.

Altcoins usually deflate over a long period of time. What's known as the "long, painful, downward spiral". So a quick crash like this could also have a quick rebound. But if the trend is broken and we consistently fail to gain new highs it will slowly sink downwards. Monero may be an exception to this rule and have more violent crashes due to the reasons I outlined above.

All this being said, the difference between 2015 and 2016 is striking and we have a lot of new people on board. I tend to think it won't be as bad as the previous times we headed down and that recovery will come sooner than we'd think.

Well at least you are honest about talking your book.
legendary
Activity: 1552
Merit: 1047
April 10, 2016, 04:29:47 AM
The market seems to have crashed very quickly and hard. I think monero is especially vulnerable because many hold their coins on the exchange due to lack of GUI wallet. It's a lot easier to panic sell when all you have to do is click a sell button. Having to actually open a cold storage and transfer the funds will make you think twice and result in less dumping overall.

Users who can't run a commando line wallet will probably be less confident in the investment because holding often means keeping funds with third party, and that is risky. Additionally they may lack understanding of the technology. These two things makes them more eager to sell and with easily accessible funds it can contribute to a pretty violent crash like we're seeing right now. It can explain why monero keeps seeing dump after dump, seemingly never ending. The coin is just so damn easy to sell.

Unfortunately we failed pretty hard at breaking 0.0043 a second time, with current low today at 0.00242. This crash wasn't very surprising and despite what has been claimed in this thread earlier (that everyone who sell moneroj regrets it) I'd suspect there are a few people who actually regret not having sold some in the 300k-400k. I personally sold 50% of my coins about 2 weeks ago and wish I sold more. But on the other hand the coins I do own is mostly profit so I can afford the price going both down and up, I'm pretty comfortable with this I'd say.

We could see a bounce up again to maybe ~300k, but the trend is broken now imo. We're probably headed sub 0.002. I am having doubts about 0.001, but it certainly could happen given the right circumstances (e.g btc rally). I consider 100k-200k a good buying range. If we go back to the 300ks I'll have to consider selling a few more.

Altcoins usually deflate over a long period of time. What's known as the "long, painful, downward spiral". So a quick crash like this could also have a quick rebound. But if the trend is broken and we consistently fail to gain new highs it will slowly sink downwards. Monero may be an exception to this rule and have more violent crashes due to the reasons I outlined above.

All this being said, the difference between 2015 and 2016 is striking and we have a lot of new people on board. I tend to think it won't be as bad as the previous times we headed down and that recovery will come sooner than we'd think.
full member
Activity: 170
Merit: 100
RevolverCoin dev
April 10, 2016, 04:08:54 AM
I do not think the price of BTC has that much to do with the success of XMR, it is an independent currency and BTC is only a tool to channel dollars into XMR.

That's what I'm saying. XMRBTC may be totally irrelevant. If so, there is no need to pay much attention to levels like 0.001 etc
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
April 10, 2016, 04:03:51 AM
Well shaking those means basically we can forger Monero because it means significiantly lower price to shake them away (something like 0.0005 or lower) and at that point, if there are still developing going on, I would estimate the competition for the coins are pretty fervent since quite many can afford to purchase a significiant part of the network.

I will start buying at 0.001ish with significiant accumulation with the target to purchase quite large stake of coins so probably without leg up to new high we will go there, but there are some resistance on the way down.

If the price goes up, I am more than happy (actually I hope more the price to rise towards new ATH more than drop back to the levels of December 2015).

well XMRBTC is only part of the story. We can easily go to sub 0.001 and be above $1 if BTC moons. Will you say XMR has failed then ?

It is hard to say if XMR is failed... It depends on many factors, such as is there tech development going on, is the funding sufficient to take the tech to the level it should be. If the aswear is yes, then the likelihood of failure is significiantly lower.

Monero has traded sub 0.001 (in fact I have bought some coins sub 0.001 level, but something like 20 or so coins only).

The other factor to consider about the success vs. failure is the community. Is the community willing to support 0.001 level or not. If not, then it probably goes to 0. If yes, then there are chance of rising back and even to go to ATH and these bullish predictions of 2000 usd/xmr.
However, the major obstacle to achieve these high levels are the whales. Most likely the whales will "redistribute" their coins to the smaller fish on the way to 2000 usd per coin and thus giving resistance to the way up there. If everybody refuses sell any Moneros below 2000 usd and everybody is willing to buy any Monero they can afford sub 2000 usd it is possible to achieve. As long as there are weak hands and coin is highly speculative, the price crashes if even a noob-account farts a bad smelling fart and start to shit on others (sorry my language).  Grin

I do not think the price of BTC has that much to do with the success of XMR, it is an independent currency and BTC is only a tool to channel dollars into XMR.
full member
Activity: 170
Merit: 100
RevolverCoin dev
April 10, 2016, 03:50:04 AM
Well shaking those means basically we can forger Monero because it means significiantly lower price to shake them away (something like 0.0005 or lower) and at that point, if there are still developing going on, I would estimate the competition for the coins are pretty fervent since quite many can afford to purchase a significiant part of the network.

I will start buying at 0.001ish with significiant accumulation with the target to purchase quite large stake of coins so probably without leg up to new high we will go there, but there are some resistance on the way down.

If the price goes up, I am more than happy (actually I hope more the price to rise towards new ATH more than drop back to the levels of December 2015).

well XMRBTC is only part of the story. We can easily go to sub 0.001 and be above $1 if BTC moons. Will you say XMR has failed then ?
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
April 10, 2016, 03:45:16 AM
near 100k XMR for sale under 300ksat.  up about 100K from 16 hours ago  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
April 10, 2016, 03:44:58 AM
~50% retrace of the rally & some significant support, maybe we'll see a bounce. If we are going to see new ATH any time soon then bulls should protect this levels. Else we will move to the next range 0.0016-0.0022.

edit: Many people are not afraid and saying that their average is ~0.002, maybe we need to see more pain and shake those people out?

Shaking out people who bough at 0.001 would be even better so lets wait for an all time low Smiley

Well shaking those means basically we can forger Monero because it means significiantly lower price to shake them away (something like 0.0005 or lower) and at that point, if there are still developing going on, I would estimate the competition for the coins are pretty fervent since quite many can afford to purchase a significiant part of the network.

I will start buying at 0.001ish with significiant accumulation with the target to purchase quite large stake of coins so probably without leg up to new high we will go there, but there are some resistance on the way down.

If the price goes up, I am more than happy (actually I hope more the price to rise towards new ATH more than drop back to the levels of December 2015).
full member
Activity: 170
Merit: 100
RevolverCoin dev
April 10, 2016, 03:41:09 AM
Yea going to 0.001 may shakeout myself as well  Tongue
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
April 10, 2016, 03:35:46 AM
~50% retrace of the rally & some significant support, maybe we'll see a bounce. If we are going to see new ATH any time soon then bulls should protect this levels. Else we will move to the next range 0.0016-0.0022.

edit: Many people are not afraid and saying that their average is ~0.002, maybe we need to see more pain and shake those people out?

Shaking out people who bough at 0.001 would be even better so lets wait for an all time low Smiley

Ya, you wait for that  Wink   0.001 will be very difficult to reach, IMO. 
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
April 10, 2016, 03:32:22 AM
~50% retrace of the rally & some significant support, maybe we'll see a bounce. If we are going to see new ATH any time soon then bulls should protect this levels. Else we will move to the next range 0.0016-0.0022.

edit: Many people are not afraid and saying that their average is ~0.002, maybe we need to see more pain and shake those people out?

Shaking out people who bough at 0.001 would be even better so lets wait for an all time low Smiley

Ha. Why not shake out everyone? Smiley

hero member
Activity: 538
Merit: 500
April 10, 2016, 03:31:33 AM
~50% retrace of the rally & some significant support, maybe we'll see a bounce. If we are going to see new ATH any time soon then bulls should protect this levels. Else we will move to the next range 0.0016-0.0022.

edit: Many people are not afraid and saying that their average is ~0.002, maybe we need to see more pain and shake those people out?

Shaking out people who bough at 0.001 would be even better so lets wait for an all time low Smiley

Could happen, but then XMR is dead and you can start shorting to 0.
full member
Activity: 170
Merit: 100
RevolverCoin dev
April 10, 2016, 03:28:58 AM
~50% retrace of the rally & some significant support, maybe we'll see a bounce. If we are going to see new ATH any time soon then bulls should protect this levels. Else we will move to the next range 0.0016-0.0022.

edit: Many people are not afraid and saying that their average is ~0.002, maybe we need to see more pain and shake those people out?

Shaking out people who bough at 0.001 would be even better so lets wait for an all time low Smiley
hero member
Activity: 538
Merit: 500
April 10, 2016, 03:20:26 AM
~50% retrace of the rally & some significant support, maybe we'll see a bounce. If we are going to see new ATH any time soon then bulls should protect this levels. Else we will move to the next range 0.0016-0.0022.

edit: Many people are not afraid and saying that their average is ~0.002, maybe we need to see more pain and shake those people out?
sr. member
Activity: 432
Merit: 251
April 10, 2016, 02:55:21 AM

I can make this the bottom.  I will dump everything I have on polo (you probably won't notice)  and that will cause an abrupt increase in price, never to revisit.  Are y'all ready for this?!



Anyway my average buy price is around 0.018 so I'm eating popcorns meanwhile Monero does Monero things, and if it goes lower than 0.02 I will buy more
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
April 10, 2016, 02:52:48 AM
Time to add more xmr thanks dumpers.


Edit: what I see looking in from btc is a manipulative dump with some follow through selling to paint the chart as if the price is heading back to 0.001. Hopefully I can pickup a few 10k more if it slides down further. What a thin market this is.

Despite alts dumping btc hasn't budged. It will break down or up soon (order by my assessment of direction) and then things get interesting. ALTs are probably going to have a tough time unless btc moons. Time to begin accumulating if you believe in the XMR chain.
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
April 10, 2016, 02:41:36 AM
How easily sentiment changes to bearish...

Everything is red on polo on btc market now. So its not only xmr. eth is also getting hammered significantly. The question is where is bottom?

I'm gonna go with 247  Grin Cheesy

As I'm sitting there, perusing the chart, I note that there are 35K+ XMR down to 242.  Thus far, an accumulation like that has typically been dumped on within a minute or so.  And within a minute, it was.  This is getting predictable. Final dump?  Doubt it.
sr. member
Activity: 397
Merit: 250
April 10, 2016, 02:40:39 AM
How easily sentiment changes to bearish...

Everything is red on polo on btc market now. So its not only xmr. eth is also getting hammered significantly. The question is where is bottom?

I'm gonna go with 247  Grin Cheesy

Nope :/
legendary
Activity: 2242
Merit: 3523
Flippin' burgers since 1163.
April 10, 2016, 02:23:11 AM
I'd agree if BTC wasn't such a mess.

But it's not.  Segwit + Core conceded on hardfork = 3.2mb blocks in 2017.  I see the glass ceiling on BTC price coming off mostly around 8-10MB blocks, so it's not far off.  

But about Monero, I think I saw Peter Todd claiming the Bitpay or something or other company's idea for dynamic block size was a "broken" idea the other day.  Wasn't Bitpay's idea the same thing Monero already uses?  What was the difference in the two?  I would find it hard to believe he would say that solely because of a missing non-zero block reward.  Someone needs to question the Todd and get him to clarify these statements as they relate to Monero.

Do have a source for the Peter Todd comments? I would be interested in reading them.

https://petertodd.org/2016/btcc-funding

No explanation why though:
Quote from: Peter Todd
given that poor communication it’s no surprise that we’re seeing fundamentally broken proposals like BitPay’s Adaptive Block Size Limit

And here Peter Todd loses his mind thinking that he is somehow in control of bitcoin + reveals the Blockstream agenda:
Quote from: Peter Todd
Would I personally support doing a hard fork that was expected to activate within two or three months as a replacement for that capacity increase, if techniques like the above were used? If major industry players were willing to commit to layer 2 solutions, I’d be willing to support something like a forced soft fork, and I’d be willing to support a coin voting hard fork even if they didn’t.
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
April 10, 2016, 02:23:09 AM
How easily sentiment changes to bearish...

Everything is red on polo on btc market now. So its not only xmr. eth is also getting hammered significantly. The question is where is bottom?

I'm gonna go with 247  Grin Cheesy
Jump to: