[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1362.

smooth

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Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on April 09, 2016, 05:47:33 PM

Quote from: r0ach on April 09, 2016, 03:58:11 PM

I personally think anyone trading altcoins this close to BTC halving is insane, but that's just my opinion, man.

I think a lot of bitcoin speculators will be badly burned in July, as everyone seems so sure the price is going to increase with the halving. In reality, I expect the BTC price to plummet as miners abandon ship en masse.

I doubt miners will abandon ship, unless there is a price drop first. The argument that much of the mining is recent-gen ASICs that are mining at <0.5 BTC variable costs per BTC is reasonable.

I do think there is a high risk that many speculators and long-term holders who listen to people like r0ach and are waiting for the halving pump to cash out will all still cash out when it doesn't happen, leading to a bloodbath (which may in turn destroy the hash rate).

Johnny Mnemonic

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Quote from: r0ach on April 09, 2016, 03:58:11 PM

I personally think anyone trading altcoins this close to BTC halving is insane, but that's just my opinion, man.

I think a lot of bitcoin speculators will be badly burned in July, as everyone seems so sure the price is going to increase with the halving. In reality, I expect the BTC price to plummet as miners abandon ship en masse.

I do agree with you, however, that the delusion will certainly steal some thunder from the alt scene (at least at first).

dEBRUYNE

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Quote from: ArticMine on April 09, 2016, 05:06:34 PM

Quote from: r0ach on April 09, 2016, 04:20:03 PM

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on April 09, 2016, 04:09:15 PM

I'd agree if BTC wasn't such a mess.

But it's not. Segwit + Core conceded on hardfork = 3.2mb blocks in 2017. I see the glass ceiling on BTC price coming off mostly around 8-10MB blocks, so it's not far off.

But about Monero, I think I saw Peter Todd claiming the Bitpay or something or other company's idea for dynamic block size was a "broken" idea the other day. Wasn't Bitpay's idea the same thing Monero already uses? What was the difference in the two? I would find it hard to believe he would say that solely because of a missing non-zero block reward. Someone needs to question the Todd and get him to clarify these statements as they relate to Monero.

Monero's adaptive blocksize limit relies on a miner penalty that depends upon the block reward. It simply will not work in a coin without a tail emission or demurrage since once the block reward runs out there is no miner penalty. Yes this includes most Cryptonote coins starting with Bytecoin. Aeon's I understand is the exception among Cryptonote coins. My take is that the tail emission in Digitalnote is way to low for the adaptive blocksize limit to work but I have not looked at this particular case in detail. Bytecoin may because of the two year premine / ninjamine lead provide a very good case on how an adaptive blocksize limit can fail in the absence of a tail emission or demurrage. The small block group in Bitcoin do make a very good case here.

As for Bitcoin or Bitcoin like coins it will also not work. One notable exception is Dogecoin because it has a tail emission. The other alternative to a tail emission would be demurrage so one could for example add a Monero style adaptive blocksize limit to Freicoin.

To add, Bitpay didn't add a penalty in their proposal as far as I know. They could theoretically make use of a penalty until the blockreward drops below a sufficient level. However, like I stated a few times already, "information" like this gets discounted back to the present and included in the price perception.

ArticMine

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Quote from: r0ach on April 09, 2016, 04:20:03 PM

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on April 09, 2016, 04:09:15 PM

I'd agree if BTC wasn't such a mess.

But it's not. Segwit + Core conceded on hardfork = 3.2mb blocks in 2017. I see the glass ceiling on BTC price coming off mostly around 8-10MB blocks, so it's not far off.

But about Monero, I think I saw Peter Todd claiming the Bitpay or something or other company's idea for dynamic block size was a "broken" idea the other day. Wasn't Bitpay's idea the same thing Monero already uses? What was the difference in the two? I would find it hard to believe he would say that solely because of a missing non-zero block reward. Someone needs to question the Todd and get him to clarify these statements as they relate to Monero.

Monero's adaptive blocksize limit relies on a miner penalty that depends upon the block reward. It simply will not work in a coin without a tail emission or demurrage since once the block reward runs out there is no miner penalty. Yes this includes most Cryptonote coins starting with Bytecoin. Aeon's I understand is the exception among Cryptonote coins. My take is that the tail emission in Digitalnote is way to low for the adaptive blocksize limit to work but I have not looked at this particular case in detail. Bytecoin may because of the two year premine / ninjamine lead provide a very good case on how an adaptive blocksize limit can fail in the absence of a tail emission or demurrage. The small block group in Bitcoin do make a very good case here.

As for Bitcoin or Bitcoin like coins it will also not work. One notable exception is Dogecoin because it has a tail emission. The other alternative to a tail emission would be demurrage so one could for example add a Monero style adaptive blocksize limit to Freicoin.

wpalczynski

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Quote from: r0ach on April 09, 2016, 04:20:03 PM

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on April 09, 2016, 04:09:15 PM

I'd agree if BTC wasn't such a mess.

But it's not. Segwit + Core conceded on hardfork = 3.2mb blocks in 2017. I see the glass ceiling on BTC price coming off mostly around 8-10MB blocks, so it's not far off.

Maybe this ALT bloodbath is caused by something brewing with Bitcoin we are not privy too.

dEBRUYNE

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Quote from: r0ach on April 09, 2016, 04:20:03 PM

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on April 09, 2016, 04:09:15 PM

I'd agree if BTC wasn't such a mess.

But it's not. Segwit + Core conceded on hardfork = 3.2mb blocks in 2017. I see the glass ceiling on BTC price coming off mostly around 8-10MB blocks, so it's not far off.

But about Monero, I think I saw Peter Todd claiming the Bitpay or something or other company's idea for dynamic block size was a "broken" idea the other day. Wasn't Bitpay's idea the same thing Monero already uses? What was the difference in the two? I would find it hard to believe he would say that solely because of a missing non-zero block reward. Someone needs to question the Todd and get him to clarify these statements as they relate to Monero.

Core did not conceed as far as I know. A few blockstreams members independently did, but core as an "entity" didn't. If aforementioned is erroneous, could you point me to where they conceeded on it?

TechorMarketing

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Quote from: r0ach on April 09, 2016, 04:20:03 PM

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on April 09, 2016, 04:09:15 PM

I'd agree if BTC wasn't such a mess.

But it's not. Segwit + Core conceded on hardfork = 3.2mb blocks in 2017. I see the glass ceiling on BTC price coming off mostly around 8-10MB blocks, so it's not far off.

But about Monero, I think I saw Peter Todd claiming the Bitpay or something or other company's idea for dynamic block size was a "broken" idea the other day. Wasn't Bitpay's idea the same thing Monero already uses? What was the difference in the two? I would find it hard to believe he would say that solely because of a missing non-zero block reward. Someone needs to question the Todd and get him to clarify these statements as they relate to Monero.

Do have a source for the Peter Todd comments? I would be interested in reading them.

smooth

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Quote from: r0ach on April 09, 2016, 04:20:03 PM

But about Monero, I think I saw Peter Todd claiming the Bitpay or something or other company's idea for dynamic block size was a "broken" idea the other day. Wasn't Bitpay's idea the same thing Monero already uses? What was the difference in the two?

Bitpay's proposal has no miner penalty on block size increases. It's problematic to do that in Bitcoin since the block reward is going away, but they didn't even try.

r0ach

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Quote from: dEBRUYNE on April 09, 2016, 04:09:15 PM

I'd agree if BTC wasn't such a mess.

But it's not. Segwit + Core conceded on hardfork = 3.2mb blocks in 2017. I see the glass ceiling on BTC price coming off mostly around 8-10MB blocks, so it's not far off.

But about Monero, I think I saw Peter Todd claiming the Bitpay or something or other company's idea for dynamic block size was a "broken" idea the other day. Wasn't Bitpay's idea the same thing Monero already uses? What was the difference in the two? I would find it hard to believe he would say that solely because of a missing non-zero block reward. Someone needs to question the Todd and get him to clarify these statements as they relate to Monero.

TrueCryptonaire

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I will correct a bit my statement: to buy more I need to be convinced the bull trend continues or Monero drops to 0.001. However, the latter case I might increase my holdings 800-900 %. Wink

lolikop

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As fast it went down as fast it shall recover and reach new ATH

dEBRUYNE

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Quote from: r0ach on April 09, 2016, 03:58:11 PM

Quote from: slapper on April 09, 2016, 02:37:20 PM

Yup a lot of words to basically say what I have been saying, greedy slimeballs infest this thread, more than any other coins combined. In DASH you only have toknormal and quizzie manipulating the morons at will. ETH has its own indentified slimes.

Sure lets "retest" 230k because that number feels better in my ass. Keep fucking each other up. Moon is around the corner.

It's not "greedy slimeballs", it's just random people like American Pegasus spamming the coin is going to be worth $5 billion dollars each before dinner time, or TrueCryptonaire saying it's going to be worth $100 each in 2014 and $1000 each by 2016. If people trade on that advice, it's probably not going to work. Just because he has unrealistic expectations or might not be the greatest of traders doesn't mean the thread is full of manipulators.

I personally think anyone trading altcoins this close to BTC halving is insane, but that's just my opinion, man. That is, unless you have so much money that tossing a few thousand at Monero is inconsequential.

I'd agree if BTC wasn't such a mess.

thelibertycap

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I cannot say I am surprised by the recent development although I hoped for bitcoin to be in better shape and it is sad to see it struggling to stay afloat over 400 while this altcoin bloodbath is in place.
Eth finally tanked thus Monero followed.
I have started buying back already with recent profits.

r0ach

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Quote from: slapper on April 09, 2016, 02:37:20 PM

Yup a lot of words to basically say what I have been saying, greedy slimeballs infest this thread, more than any other coins combined. In DASH you only have toknormal and quizzie manipulating the morons at will. ETH has its own indentified slimes.

Sure lets "retest" 230k because that number feels better in my ass. Keep fucking each other up. Moon is around the corner.

It's not "greedy slimeballs", it's just random people like American Pegasus spamming the coin is going to be worth $5 billion dollars each before dinner time, or TrueCryptonaire saying it's going to be worth $100 each in 2014 and $1000 each by 2016. If people trade on that advice, it's probably not going to work. Just because he has unrealistic expectations or might not be the greatest of traders doesn't mean the thread is full of manipulators.

I personally think anyone trading altcoins this close to BTC halving is insane, but that's just my opinion, man. That is, unless you have so much money that tossing a few thousand at Monero is inconsequential.

TrueCryptonaire

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I am willing to support 0.001... Personally my average price is around 0.002, no point to buy more unless it will benefit somehow. To support the growth I am willing to increase a bit my average price but if the growth fails (like it looks now) I need to cost average. For me it is too expesive now to buy it even for 0.0015 as there is no point doing so.

I have not sold though since I do not care my current holdings so much. Grin

vuduchyld

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Quote from: kurious on April 09, 2016, 02:39:23 PM

Let's see, I am happy to catch that knife - I have bids set all the way down.

Me, too. I'm predicting that many of them won't get filled, but I damn sure don't mind buying at these prices.

I should also point out that one's time horizon is a pretty important factor. My XMR time horizon is long. I'm not just trying to trade in and out to make a few satoshi or increase BTC holdings. I've only EVER sold less than 1000 XMR my attempts to maximize holdings by re-purchasing lower. Sometimes, that has been successful, but mostly not. The vast majority of my XMR will remain in my wallet for years.

If you have bought XMR, you bought it for its ability to remain anonymous. You bought more or you held because you figured later this year, the GUI would help utility and possibly even price. Why would you sell now? In fact, even if you're flipping for satoshi, why would you sell at this price?

Whales gonna whale. Manippers gonna manip. vuduchyld gonna hodl until the cows come home.

explorer

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Quote from: Dotto on April 09, 2016, 02:28:54 PM

How do you analize this?

[img]polo depth chart

Very, very quickly. For it will be unrecognizable as the same chart every few minutes Cheesy

It would appear that the margin shorts are mostly covered, using the lending pool size and rates as a reference. Each dump appears to increase the pool, rather than decrease it, though funds were added when the bid stack was bolstered as well.

pinky

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Quote from: Dotto on April 09, 2016, 02:28:54 PM

How do you analize this?

You just ignore it. This is bearish sign.

kurious

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Quote from: Dotto on April 09, 2016, 12:40:26 PM

It seems 27ksat has to be retested and is not that probable that will hold. Betting at 23-25ksat as floor

I cannot argue with you with any conviction Dotto - you're usually on the money.

But it's 500 BTC down to dip under 25.

Which looks like support way before your low end to me.

Let's see, I am happy to catch that knife - I have bids set all the way down.

slapper

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Quote from: americanpegasus on April 09, 2016, 12:44:41 PM

Quote from: slapper on April 09, 2016, 12:33:17 PM

Yup. Where are the chartists who saw that coming? Which chart explained any of the recent dump? NONE. That's why TA etc are just dumb tools to dupe newbies (regardless of legitimacy of a coin). Overall this is coin has more slimeballs than even DASH and ETH combined. Normally I use crude language to go with this but it serves no purpose.

Just don't introduce anyone to XMR. BTC is the best one can do and that's what should be supported. Otherwise it's just dump a coin, come to this thread with a TA line to mock everyone, post negative sentiments when you want to buy, positive when you are ready to dump. Rinse, laugh and repeat.

Don't forget to post at what price you want to get back in. What price you want to sell right now. Everything out in the open, to steal from the guy posting before you in this very thread. Works everytime.

Fine, I'll tell you anyway: greed

Yup a lot of words to basically say what I have been saying, greedy slimeballs infest this thread, more than any other coins combined. In DASH you only have toknormal and quizzie manipulating the morons at will. ETH has its own indentified slimes.

Sure lets "retest" 230k because that number feels better in my ass. Keep fucking each other up. Moon is around the corner.

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1362. (Read 3314669 times)