Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1501. (Read 3313576 times)

Actually TueCryptonaire seems a sensible guy. I was also regarded as a troll in the beginning 

Obviosuly everybody decides their exit points individually.
My personal situation is, I am not thinking exiting Monero (=selling without a plan to rebuy the same amount or more later) any time soon even if Monero costs 10-50 usd each.
In fact, no reason to dump since when it is time to diversify, I hope I can do it without dumping (buying gold coins and other assets directly with XMR).
Also, I am working full time in two jobs which I love + I have several rental units around Finland which alone can sustain my lifestyle without working so I am not selling in the need of money but when others need some of my Moneros.
I know this might sound a scam but it really isn't. It is time to diversify when people are literally begging to be able to throw money into your bosoms (this is a sure sign of bubble, happened in dot-com-bubble 15 years ago people were sleeping in their sleeping bags so that they are able to invest in some kind of vague tech company that went 1-2 yrs later to bankcrupt).

Can we break through this liquidity pool?

During the accumulation phase which may or may not be ending, the global market cap of XMR has been <$10 million. What matters is that there is a declining return for a large, non-manipulative (non-strategic) investor, if they invest "too much" as a percentage of the total XMR in existence.

For a portfolio investor, seeking for profits in the long term, and not caring about the trading short term, it makes sense to buy 1-3% of the market cap, since that is an amount that can still be exited at some point. Buying 30% is not only being "a dinosaur in a china store" with huge slippage in the buy phase, but also it is impossible to sell such an amount.

So the issue is: buying 1-3% of all XMR has never costed more than $100k, so for a wealthy investor, let alone an institution, this is an insignificant fringe amount, and should not rationally cause an exit pressure even if it rises 10x to the current value.

The fundamentals of XMR can easily support 10-figure marketcap. We have just broken to 8 figures. When the rise takes place, the unwealthy should sell some to diversify, unless they want to keep XMR at 50%+ of their portfolio, which I do not recommend. For the wealthy, it just takes longer until XMR becomes 50% of their total assets, and when this becomes the case, they should start selling as well  

Even for me, XMR is not nearing 50% of my total, so there is no reason to sell (nor to buy more since I have what I need).

You indicated before that currently you are not trading, but you must have studied the market well: that is just almost scary :p

I wonder though what differs for a 'wealthy' investor, the percentage or the cost basis? As well I can only assume that even when the percentage is lower?, the cost basis is higher since the buying has an influence on the market?

klee, red is not allowed except for moderation. I deleted your post but quoted it fully above using blue instead

I don't mean that you sell in chunks of half of your position. You can as well divide the selling more evenly, but always sell at ATH, which provides more coins to the market when they need it, and diversifies your portfolio when you need it.

Many who are reading this are behind their accumulation phase already. We had 2 years of cheap coins so you have to be slow to not have time to buy what you wanted. If we assume an average unwealthy investor whose cost basis is 200ksat and XMR is 10% of the portfolio, the reduction of position by half until the time it is 2M makes perfect sense. If this does not happen, XMR becomes 50% of the portfolio which is rather much.

Btw, while I see the latest action as part of the quantum foam, technicals still apply and the intraday triple top at the historical strong resistance zone of 275k indicates a Fib retracement in the following days, my target is 230k.

If it is breached however, next stop is 400-430k. Place your bets if you are onto trading.

Where would be the x10 base objectively? (For XMR in general, not individually).

Maybe someone should sell half there.

IMO it is 100k satoshi.

So at 1M everybody sell half lol

We are still in the quantum foam territory where the price does not matter. In the future, it will be higher than today, or nothing. So only the quantity matters: if you bought those 10k BTC in 2010, or not. Many could have, but did not.

Just replace BTC with XMR and 2010 with 2015.

For every 10x in price, it is prudent to share half of the position (unless lazy and does not care about diversification, or needs to keep the wealth private).

The quantum foam territory will end when we make ATH.

Maybe I am overly optimistic but with so many good things in the pipeline we may never see 210-214k again.

Some wild action.  Bid side passed 1000 BTC for a while.  Probably margin long action, which does not bode well for stability.  Most of those punters will lose money, and sell their XMR too cheap.  Definitely time to place low-ball bids.

I would say the good opportunity was yesterday, before the increase. Now I would just wait and see where it goes. I think xmr will go down, but not less than 200k in near future. So while its 250k now, I would not buy. Just my speculation:-)

For all the shit people give you, deserved or not, you often make me lol. I think you're also having a pretty fun time. 

Sometimes I think you're just hitting a button on a statement generator and more often that not sounding like a bot. But still, it's good fun!

Either the jump was an inevitable correction because we were operating at suppressed levels for too long, or it was an impulsive overshoot, due to a large accumulator, and once they are full, the trend will be towards an intermediate level -- both could be true simultaneously, in fact.  Level bumps like that tend to cluster, so the probability of another level bump is elevated, but declining over time, until the next event creates the opportunity for a cluster to form.  The other major forces driving price are declining supply and spreading information / sentiment.  Since these are all positive, I would say the situation is broadly bullish, just on market dynamics alone, disregarding technology and infrastructure progress, competitive landscape, &c.

240k-260k trading range seems well stocked with liquidity.  A lot of ask has been consumed, about a quarter of it -- the quarter which was "realistic" in ambition -- i.e. devoid of longer-term vision, hot, fast money -- weak hands.  But the bid sum has generally been growing by large increments-- now about 20x greater in USD terms than it was a year ago (when USD was weaker than today).  I reduced a wee bit in the 270s -- it seemed the responsible thing to do, for everyone concerned -- but I'm starting to feel pretty good about this level, sociologically, so I will be adding my support back.  Probably the hot money portion of that bid will drain away when they feel the jump phase is over (assuming no jump cluster forms), and get bored.  That will create the opportunity to fill low-ball orders occasionally, so a ladder strategy seems likely to play well as the noise tends towards homoskedasticity.

If we do see a cluster of level jumps in the near future, I hope everyone with large bags will try to share a bit, yes, but not too much:  Keep in mind that large jumps are due to large accumulators.  Sharing with them is not as beneficial to the development of the economy as is sharing with myriads of smaller players.  Every XMR denominated business needs XMR paying customers.  Yes, adding a whale to the network can sometimes do great things -- but only if that whale is a supernode, a highly connected vertex in the graph of economic interactions.  If the whale just sits on a big bag, all they have done is reduced supply and hence bumped the level.  Mostly we need lots of little people, consumers.  People who eat lunch in Brussels, get therapy in Manhattan, or need VPN links, wall art, medical cannabis, whatever.  For that reason, I feel more generous when the price trend is more gradual, more diffuse, but very strong.

In Monero there is a fixed minimum tail emission to ensure that there is a mining incentive to secure the network. This allows for adaptive blocksize limits without jeopardizing the security of the network. In Bitcoin this is not the case and the theory is that a fee market will somehow "develop" to address this. The trouble is it is very unclear how this market is supposed to develop and at the same time allow for Bitcoin to scale. This lies at the heart of the blocksize dispute, and is why so many are very afraid to allow a blocksize increase in Bitcoin.

A great buying opportunity now in XMR.
In moments like these of a small breathers it is time to reload the bags full of treasures.

It is a sign of a bear market when XMR is rising "only" 24 % in 24 hrs.

There's room for more than one settlement layer.  Litecoin and Primecoin can also easily provision Lightning-style payment channels.

So long as it enjoys the highest network hash rate and concomitant security, Bitcoin is poised to be the backbone, or Mother Of All (Transparent) Settlement Networks.

Of course that's only addressing the visible tip of the financial/socioeconomic iceberg.  Meanwhile, Monero is preparing to be the Father Of All (Opaque) Settlement Networks.   

Freedom is on the march; central banks tremble.

I wonder what the chances are that if Bitcoin becomes the settlement layer due to high fees the regular daily transactions will go to LTC.

We'll need a little more than Two Weeks of hype to establish any kind of market preference (as opposed to noisy pumping) for Maid.  I'm not even convinced Maid qualifies as an altcoin, despite the tenuous linking of its distributed storage system to the overcapitalized SafeCoin chimera.

If Maid is so great, why aren't cypherpunk/distributed p2p system luminaries like Bram Cohen, Prof. Szabo, and Dr. Back tweeting about it?

The general idea behind ETH is wildly popular, but it remains to be seen if Vitalik's specific enterprise is capable of bringing it to fruition.

Litecoin doesn't need to solve the (perhaps intractable/intrinsic) "blocksize issue."  It just needs to keep running and be available to absorb excluded marginal use cases as BTC fees inexorably rise.

But to your point, ETH and Maid do appear to be making the right kind of noises about fungibility and privacy (perhaps having learned from Bitcoin's present accession to the blockchain analysis industry).

shit i was sleeping! what happened? did the 200k wall finally get breached or is this just another pump?

steady rise would be much better imo