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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1512. (Read 3313576 times)

legendary
Activity: 1750
Merit: 1036
Facts are more efficient than fud
February 29, 2016, 04:04:29 PM
...
We are the 98 pound genius weakling at the beach. We are still going to get sand kicked in our face. We need to be all 'round good, not excellent, or even the best in some areas, but pitifully deficient in others.

If we're using comic book metaphors, I think we're about to become X-Men's Beast - superhuman strength with genius level intellect.
LOL, good one! Remember Peter Parker, before he was bitten by the spider. A 98 pound weakling genius himself, and then he got the spider powers. I just don't want us to have Peter Parker's terrible timing, and Peter Parker's luck!

Your metaphor is wrong. It's more like a carnival barker claiming that what is behind the curtain is "Stupendous, mighty, earth shatteringly strong and will destroy all who get in its way!"

Which maybe once or twice should get you to bet against BTC or XMR, opensource technologies that do what they say and how they say it and don't need a manager to pimp their wares. After hearing this over and over again with every new coin that's built on hype and promises, maybe you should be a little less panicky and a little more confident in what is right here in front of you.  

No one is stopping you from betting a little (or everything) on what's behind the curtain, so if you believe all the hype, go for it.
legendary
Activity: 2242
Merit: 3523
Flippin' burgers since 1163.
February 29, 2016, 03:54:37 PM
We are the 98 pound genius weakling at the beach. We are still going to get sand kicked in our face. We need to be all 'round good [...]

I strongly disagree with this. Monero needs to be private, untraceable, fungible. Nothing more, please.

That by itself is a huge task and responsibility, nothing to take lightly. Without exaggeration it can be a case of live and death. So please don't try to be reasonable good at everything, because then at the same time you are good at nothing. That is ground for the other 99 random altcoins to cover.
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
February 29, 2016, 03:37:04 PM
and 15 million USD
Oh, that, LOL. Forgot to mention that. Dunno, but they have it, and we don't. It's yet another strength that they have, and that we have to somehow overcome. Have to hit'em where they ain't. Dogecoin did it with a mascot and a friendly community.

How're we going to do it? Don't know. When some guy attacks me, and he has 50 pounds on me, well, that's an advantage, maybe an unfair one, but I have to overcome it. Or die.

Ethereum is that guy rushing us with 'roid rage, and we're complaining about the illegal juice?!?! Good luck with that.

Might I interfere with your -otherwise- nicely put thoughts; but the one cannot exclude the other (ie: both coins can achieve greatness). FWIW: I never before got involved with alts (trading-wise). I did so with ETH/EXP rallies and the only thing I done it for, was to gain more BTCs that I used to buy XMR. Funnily enough, I managed to rub out my gains from the recent mini-dump XMR did *right* on the verge of "breakout" point a week ago (240k).

I'm not complaining; trading has these 'features' - it could've been worse if I held ETH instead. I'm just pointing out the obvious, that both coins could co-exist with BTC serving different purposes. This is pretty early stage if we're talking about a black swan. I'd say we wait and see what happens (while keeping our eyes open). Roll Eyes
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
February 29, 2016, 02:40:19 PM
While Monero has three pillars, ZCash has three foibles: 
 
- The existence of Genesis key shards can never guarantee you can trust the Blockchain implicitly. 
 
- Opaque Blockchain means you can never be sure someone hasn't exploited a flaw and counterfeited tokens.  If such a flaw were discovered and patched, you would still never be able trust the Blockchain again. 
 
- Lack of a view key means there is no way to prove you control an address or offer optional auditability without granting control of your funds to another entity. 
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
February 29, 2016, 02:15:13 PM
zcash team is still researching How To Generate SNARK Parameters Securely

This is a oversimplified article about a very complex problem.

Some interesting stuff in that blog. First:

Quote
So does this fix the problem? We think this solution is good enough to move ahead with. It completely eliminates the toxic waste private key if it works, and it would be extremely difficult for any adversary to defeat it.

I really don't like the wording "good enough". There could literally be billions of dollars on the line in the future.

Quote
Unfortunately there is no way to confirm, after the fact, that it actually worked. It will always be possible to worry that all N out of N of the participants may have secretly colluded together to share their private key shards, or that all N out of N participants may have had their computers compromised by an adversary who stole all of the private key shards.

This is a major hurdle as well. The original cryptocurrency concept as envisioned by Satoshi is about being decentralized and trustless. Alas, Zcash won't be either of them.
full member
Activity: 188
Merit: 100
February 29, 2016, 02:10:17 PM
...
We are the 98 pound genius weakling at the beach. We are still going to get sand kicked in our face. We need to be all 'round good, not excellent, or even the best in some areas, but pitifully deficient in others.

If we're using comic book metaphors, I think we're about to become X-Men's Beast - superhuman strength with genius level intellect.
LOL, good one! Remember Peter Parker, before he was bitten by the spider. A 98 pound weakling genius himself, and then he got the spider powers. I just don't want us to have Peter Parker's terrible timing, and Peter Parker's luck!
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 501
February 29, 2016, 02:05:04 PM
zcash team is still researching How To Generate SNARK Parameters Securely

This is a oversimplified article about a very complex problem.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
February 29, 2016, 02:01:41 PM
and 15 million USD
Oh, that, LOL. Forgot to mention that. Dunno, but they have it, and we don't. It's yet another strength that they have, and that we have to somehow overcome. Have to hit'em where they ain't. Dogecoin did it with a mascot and a friendly community.

How're we going to do it? Don't know. When some guy attacks me, and he has 50 pounds on me, well, that's an advantage, maybe an unfair one, but I have to overcome it. Or die.

Ethereum is that guy rushing us with 'roid rage, and we're complaining about the illegal juice?!?! Good luck with that.

We have technical superiority. 

Ring signatures in our core are pretty badass.  Privacy and untraceability are not add-ons, or plugins, or features still to be implemented for Monero.

Other coins are touting their privacy as "soon" while their accessibility is "now".  We have the opposite approach - but popular opinion seems to prefer the former.

Very much agree on the technical superiority. But what good is that if not enough people know about it? Based on market caps, Monero's technical superiority is not enough to overcome its marketing inferiority (sorry, it pains me to write this). We are the 98 pound genius weakling at the beach. We are still going to get sand kicked in our face. We need to be all 'round good, not excellent, or even the best in some areas, but pitifully deficient in others.

Fluffypony's presence at the Satoshi Roundtable is already a huge improvent over the status quo. Furthermore, I think in the upcoming months this will only get better.
full member
Activity: 201
Merit: 100
February 29, 2016, 02:00:54 PM
...
We are the 98 pound genius weakling at the beach. We are still going to get sand kicked in our face. We need to be all 'round good, not excellent, or even the best in some areas, but pitifully deficient in others.

If we're using comic book metaphors, I think we're about to become X-Men's Beast - superhuman strength with genius level intellect.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
February 29, 2016, 01:55:47 PM
Very much agree on the technical superiority. But what good is that if not enough people know about it? Based on market caps, Monero's technical superiority is not enough to overcome its marketing inferiority (sorry, it pains me to write this). We are the 98 pound genius weakling at the beach. We are still going to get sand kicked in our face. We need to be all 'round good, not excellent, or even the best in some areas, but pitifully deficient in others.
You know where github is, right?

Anyhow,  rushing it would only poison the well.  You don't want to get a reputation as not-ready-for-prime-time, because when you are ready, with all the UX issues nailed, then its too late to catch the next big event-based market need, as everyone has moved on to a lower-grade solution, which has become habitual, stolen the mind-share, gained the network effects &c.

The impediment to marketing is not lack of marketing.  It is lack of readiness for marketing.  To solve that you can fund a project on the forum, and/or provide pull requests.  Personally, I figure the big market need comes in about a year from now, when financial repression gets serious worldwide.  Being ready when that happens will be important.

Meanwhile, we are accruing early adopters on an ongoing basis.  The community is definitely growing.  You can buy more stuff, liquidity is rising, technology and infrastructure is improving in many areas, and not slipping in any significant area.  Prospects are very very good, fundamentally.  

I frankly appreciate the price here.  It's a wee high for accumulation IMO, but I keep dribbling, because, hey, you never know when it moons, and FOMO.  DCA means nothing if you start timing it.  And I've proven to myself that I can fail massively when timing it.  My only really good timing moves (other than buying OTC before polo) have been when I had inside info (or more accurately, public info which I believed while the market remained skeptical).

hero member
Activity: 870
Merit: 585
February 29, 2016, 01:55:29 PM
Very not impressed.  The writer sounds like he's a bit out of the loop.
One:
If you need to "reconnect to the internet ever so briefly," as he writes, then it must mean you are exposing something, whether it be a private key or a passphrase.  You never need to do either of those things.  You can do offline signing and never expose a private key, ever.  You can keep your passphrase software for generating private keys isolated, too.
Two:
If you feel the need to implement a security protocol that includes burning your coins, then you should start looking for a dishwashing job and get food stamps.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
February 29, 2016, 01:50:20 PM
To lighten the air, I thought this was neat.  I tried to do a 'highest unique bidder' game on the Doge Blockchain a couple of years ago right before Monero was released.  
  
It obviously failed spectacularly and I learned a valuable lesson from it about why public ledgers are not the ultimate solution.  
  
https://www.reddit.com/r/dogebetting/comments/1u7fwv/game_grand_theft_ɖoge_v_break_into_the_vault/
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
February 29, 2016, 01:44:14 PM
If some entity/entities decide to invest 1 billion usd into XMR, and let's assume only 10 % of Moneros are possible to get at any money (most will be held in cold storages as nobody is selling in need of money but for the urgency to help the Moneroless society around). Then, 1 000 000 000 usd / 1 844 500 xmr = 542 usd/xmr.
I think 10 % availability rate is pretty realistic as there are some selling taking place when the price rises. At current prices only a fraction is traded, and even the same coin is probably traded several times within a day back and forth.

Reach out to libertarians Koch brothers then. An easier route is to lay off the pipe.

hey, that's only 7 yuan per capital PRC.  Seems low-ball to me.  Once you run out of 50kUSD smurfs, or that channel gets squeezed, what are you gonna do?
full member
Activity: 188
Merit: 100
February 29, 2016, 01:36:45 PM
and 15 million USD
Oh, that, LOL. Forgot to mention that. Dunno, but they have it, and we don't. It's yet another strength that they have, and that we have to somehow overcome. Have to hit'em where they ain't. Dogecoin did it with a mascot and a friendly community.

How're we going to do it? Don't know. When some guy attacks me, and he has 50 pounds on me, well, that's an advantage, maybe an unfair one, but I have to overcome it. Or die.

Ethereum is that guy rushing us with 'roid rage, and we're complaining about the illegal juice?!?! Good luck with that.

We have technical superiority. 

Ring signatures in our core are pretty badass.  Privacy and untraceability are not add-ons, or plugins, or features still to be implemented for Monero.

Other coins are touting their privacy as "soon" while their accessibility is "now".  We have the opposite approach - but popular opinion seems to prefer the former.

Very much agree on the technical superiority. But what good is that if not enough people know about it? Based on market caps, Monero's technical superiority is not enough to overcome its marketing inferiority (sorry, it pains me to write this). We are the 98 pound genius weakling at the beach. We are still going to get sand kicked in our face. We need to be all 'round good, not excellent, or even the best in some areas, but pitifully deficient in others.
full member
Activity: 201
Merit: 100
February 29, 2016, 01:14:42 PM
and 15 million USD
Oh, that, LOL. Forgot to mention that. Dunno, but they have it, and we don't. It's yet another strength that they have, and that we have to somehow overcome. Have to hit'em where they ain't. Dogecoin did it with a mascot and a friendly community.

How're we going to do it? Don't know. When some guy attacks me, and he has 50 pounds on me, well, that's an advantage, maybe an unfair one, but I have to overcome it. Or die.

Ethereum is that guy rushing us with 'roid rage, and we're complaining about the illegal juice?!?! Good luck with that.

We have technical superiority. 

Ring signatures in our core are pretty badass.  Privacy and untraceability are not add-ons, or plugins, or features still to be implemented for Monero.

Other coins are touting their privacy as "soon" while their accessibility is "now".  We have the opposite approach - but popular opinion seems to prefer the former.
sr. member
Activity: 400
Merit: 263
February 29, 2016, 01:01:27 PM
Why after all this time there is still no GUI and Poloniex is still a single point of failure?
...of course, the real question to ask, is what have you done after all this time to fix these problems?
Unfair to shame an obvious Monero supporter, who may be unable to do the coding or lobbying which needs to be done. I can’t do it either. Which is why I refrain from commenting, usually. Because I do feel guilty about not doing these things, which, btw, I CAN’T do anyway. I don’t sing the national anthem at the Superbowl either, and anyone with ears should be grateful for that.

The only thing I can do is talk up Monero on this, or other (seemingly unrelated) forums, spread teh word among my friends and acquaintances etc. Is it a lot? No. What do Warren Buffet’s stockholders do for Berkshire Hathaway?

My fear is that we will miss this black swan event, because (among other things) we have no official gui, and only a tiny exchange called Poloniex. Will these issues be resolved before China’s move towards capital controls becomes a fait accompli?

And before Ethereum co-opts Monero’s strengths, or at least, enough of them to induce Cryptospace to embrace them (even more), while ignoring Monero, which, while still technically superior, remains Marketing-Challenged.

Ethereum has time, and timing on their side, as the #2 coin. It has user adoption, a thriving community, without even being finished. OK, no cute mascot. Still, if this event happens, say, in the next month, will Monero be ready to benefit from it? Because even rent by civil war, Hearnia, and constrained capacity, Bitcoin is. Even unfinished, Ethereum is. But Monero? Not so much. Even Dogecoin is! Such Sad, Very Despair.

Some good issues raised but I am sure most people involved are aware of the challenges.

As for the bolded part:

http://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/#USD

Wink

EDIT: To be clear I totally support a more even distribution across exchanges but that is obviously up to the exchanges and the traders.
full member
Activity: 188
Merit: 100
February 29, 2016, 12:59:45 PM
and 15 million USD
Oh, that, LOL. Forgot to mention that. Dunno, but they have it, and we don't. It's yet another strength that they have, and that we have to somehow overcome. Have to hit'em where they ain't. Dogecoin did it with a mascot and a friendly community.

How're we going to do it? Don't know. When some guy attacks me, and he has 50 pounds on me, well, that's an advantage, maybe an unfair one, but I have to overcome it. Or die.

Ethereum is that guy rushing us with 'roid rage, and we're complaining about the illegal juice?!?! Good luck with that.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1008
February 29, 2016, 12:34:22 PM
Why after all this time there is still no GUI and Poloniex is still a single point of failure?
...of course, the real question to ask, is what have you done after all this time to fix these problems?
Unfair to shame an obvious Monero supporter, who may be unable to do the coding or lobbying which needs to be done. I can’t do it either. Which is why I refrain from commenting, usually. Because I do feel guilty about not doing these things, which, btw, I CAN’T do anyway. I don’t sing the national anthem at the Superbowl either, and anyone with ears should be grateful for that.

The only thing I can do is talk up Monero on this, or other (seemingly unrelated) forums, spread teh word among my friends and acquaintances etc. Is it a lot? No. What do Warren Buffet’s stockholders do for Berkshire Hathaway?

My fear is that we will miss this black swan event, because (among other things) we have no official gui, and only a tiny exchange called Poloniex. Will these issues be resolved before China’s move towards capital controls becomes a fait accompli?

And before Ethereum co-opts Monero’s strengths, or at least, enough of them to induce Cryptospace to embrace them (even more), while ignoring Monero, which, while still technically superior, remains Marketing-Challenged.

Ethereum has time, and timing on their side, and 15 million USD, as the #2 coin. It has user adoption, a thriving community, without even being finished. OK, no cute mascot. Still, if this event happens, say, in the next month, will Monero be ready to benefit from it? Because even rent by civil war, Hearnia, and constrained capacity, Bitcoin is. Even unfinished, Ethereum is. But Monero? Not so much. Even Dogecoin is! Such Sad, Very Despair.

FTFY.

I'm not shaming. And how is the original post not shaming the Monero developers and community?  

First bold - they buy stock. Monero is not a stock. Its a currency.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
February 29, 2016, 12:30:27 PM
Why after all this time there is still no GUI and Poloniex is still a single point of failure?
...of course, the real question to ask, is what have you done after all this time to fix these problems?
Unfair to shame an obvious Monero supporter, who may be unable to do the coding or lobbying which needs to be done. I can’t do it either. Which is why I refrain from commenting, usually. Because I do feel guilty about not doing these things, which, btw, I CAN’T do anyway. I don’t sing the national anthem at the Superbowl either, and anyone with ears should be grateful for that.

The only thing I can do is talk up Monero on this, or other (seemingly unrelated) forums, spread teh word among my friends and acquaintances etc. Is it a lot? No. What do Warren Buffet’s stockholders do for Berkshire Hathaway?

My fear is that we will miss this black swan event, because (among other things) we have no official gui, and only a tiny exchange called Poloniex. Will these issues be resolved before China’s move towards capital controls becomes a fait accompli?

And before Ethereum co-opts Monero’s strengths, or at least, enough of them to induce Cryptospace to embrace them (even more), while ignoring Monero, which, while still technically superior, remains Marketing-Challenged.

Ethereum has time, and timing on their side, as the #2 coin. It has user adoption, a thriving community, without even being finished. OK, no cute mascot. Still, if this event happens, say, in the next month, will Monero be ready to benefit from it? Because even rent by civil war, Hearnia, and constrained capacity, Bitcoin is. Even unfinished, Ethereum is. But Monero? Not so much. Even Dogecoin is! Such Sad, Very Despair.

You make a few good points and I have said earlier that we shouldn't be so harsh on other guys (who might be unable to do anything) or newcomers. However, at this point the only thing we can do with respect to the GUI is wait until it is finished. Bear in mind that people are now actively working on it, see for instance:

https://github.com/mbg033?tab=activity

https://github.com/mbg033/bitmonero

https://github.com/mbg033/monero-core
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