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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1539. (Read 3313576 times)

hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
February 17, 2016, 05:34:35 PM
if bitcoin makes a big move up, the alt bubble gains (including xmr) will likely be erased. this is true historically.

It depends what you mean by big move and and which part of history.

400->500 probably just hurts alts as everyone wants to ride the pure BTC train for now. But a BIG move may be another story altogether.

a BIG move would still have the same effect (declining alts) from $400 to $500. what happens after that is anyone's guess. hopefully the fabled altcoin slingshot move materializes at $1000+ and xmr participates. in that case, xmr could easily reach .01 or more.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
February 17, 2016, 05:03:02 PM
if bitcoin makes a big move up, the alt bubble gains (including xmr) will likely be erased. this is true historically.

It depends what you mean by big move and and which part of history.

400->500 probably just hurts alts as everyone wants to ride the pure BTC train for now. But a BIG move may be another story altogether.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
February 17, 2016, 04:58:25 PM
if bitcoin makes a big move up, the alt bubble gains (including xmr) will likely be erased. this is true historically.

I don't see BTC going up. It's likely to touch base with channel resistance and then go sub 400 again.

no one ever sees it

True, but there is still this pervasive block size issue.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
February 17, 2016, 04:56:49 PM
if bitcoin makes a big move up, the alt bubble gains (including xmr) will likely be erased. this is true historically.

I don't see BTC going up. It's likely to touch base with channel resistance and then go sub 400 again.

no one ever sees it
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 504
February 17, 2016, 04:53:03 PM
if bitcoin makes a big move up, the alt bubble gains (including xmr) will likely be erased. this is true historically.

I don't see BTC going up. It's likely to touch base with channel resistance and then go sub 400 again.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
February 17, 2016, 04:47:50 PM
if bitcoin makes a big move up, the alt bubble gains (including xmr) will likely be erased. this is true historically.
legendary
Activity: 2242
Merit: 3523
Flippin' burgers since 1163.
February 17, 2016, 04:00:12 PM

I think Monero is the best anonymous coin. So I will hold some. But it will not be big part of my wealth.

Not yet, at least.

To be clear, I think that is intended as response to the "But it will not be big part of my wealth" part.

Something went wrong with my post, but yes that is what I tried to refer to. Thanks.
hero member
Activity: 665
Merit: 500
February 17, 2016, 03:59:26 PM
I'd be interested in Monero related cross posts. This is the only XMR thread I follow. Think it's a nice thread and doesn't have to be 100% TA focus.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
February 17, 2016, 03:53:50 PM

I think Monero is the best anonymous coin. So I will hold some. But it will not be big part of my wealth.

Not yet, at least.

To be clear, I think that is intended as response to the "But it will not be big part of my wealth" part.
legendary
Activity: 2242
Merit: 3523
Flippin' burgers since 1163.
February 17, 2016, 03:50:28 PM

I think Monero is the best anonymous coin. So I will hold some. But it will not be big part of my wealth.

Not yet, at least.

Now that is some serious speculation. Nice one.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
February 17, 2016, 03:25:28 PM
Some interesting comments on reddit today that deserve a crosspost. The question was: Is Monero a get rich quick scheme?

Warz' answer:

It has been a long time since I had enough time and energy to express my views on the trajectory and progress of XMR.  But today I wrote something I think suitable to the moment, and someone might find it encouraging in times to come, so I will cross-post it here, with apologies for any redundancy:

It is easy to take a triumphalist tone during the rips.  The real reward comes to those who can keep that flame burning through the dips.  In fact, I believe we are much, much nearer the bottom than the top, even now.

There really is, even now, almost two full years into the game, nothing real and present which can compare to the excellent qualities of XMR as digital currency, pure and simple.  Many innovative cryptocoins have introduced interesting technologies and economic models, but all of those features actually damage their ability to be used as currency.  Those that come closest in features fail in various and diverse ways such that their distant miniscule liquidity is a profound and persistent handicap.

I have always said that if a superior currency were to emerge, I would change my allegiance as circumstances dictated.  I see less and less likelihood of such an eventuality with each passing million USD of liquidity added to XMR.  No, this is not a pump and dump.  It is one tiny step, with leaps and bounds yet to come, and every inch of the way is hard fought, and every victory well-earned -- some paid for dearly. It is earned primarily by excellence in technology, and secured by honest and transparent dealings.

There are at least 20 trillions of USD in wealth held privately, away from prying eyes, extortionists, thieves, and kidnappers, which currently rely on very illiquid instruments, and some significant proportion of those trillions will need to pass through the eye of our little needle at some point.  I believe that our tiny trickle will be compelled to grow into a mighty torrent of liquidity, through many disruptive stages over several years.  And it has not begun but one ten thousandth of the way yet.

XMR technology continues a long methodical and responsible march towards a balance of those specific features required to function as an international fully distributed private currency, without counterparty risk, without vulnerability to the dictat of a central authority.  The management of such an enterprise is frought with pitfalls, as nearly every cryptocoins project has demonstrated. Yet the meritocratic grass-roots development regime of XMR has avoided these traps nimbly, with a lot of hard work, motivated by a vision of positive social value and of just and worthy personal reward deriving from that honest added value.  

I am encouraged and energized to be a small part of such an economy, and grateful for the opportunity to participate in some small way in the project of making the world a freer, safer, more just place for generations to come.

Would you guys, even though this is the speculation thread, be interested in some (daily) crossposts of salient reddit posts? I'll try to format them together in one post if interested.
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
February 17, 2016, 03:17:07 PM
i dont get your hint macsga, did you look at the data after all or is this just your conclusion without looking at the exchange?
to me it looks like lending supply is indeed drying out, why this is happening is hard to say.
open positions could be forced to close once they are not able to renew ? or is it possible to change the max lending rate % ?
btw its now at 48k again allready.

I'm looking at the data as clueless as everybody else. My opinion is that you can't judge a chaotic system by just "looking" at it (at least not in short term; in the sense of a couple of years that XMR is here). Since XMR came along my way it really reminded me what BTC really should have been in the first place. None of them is perfect but both fulfill "the job".

"The job" is to have the ability to have electronic money out of the banking system, free of the human greed (and stupidity) to inflate it at will just because they can. The main difference of XMR vs BTC is the former is being able to certify that you may hold your "money" absolutely anonymously (at least more than BTC is).

A long story short; I'm not a TA man. I'm a man of fundamentals. In my world both coins are here to stay, each for their own reasons. They just need their time. As for my trading capabilities; I can only say that I *completely* suck as a trader so you shouldn't listen to me more than anyone else in here. That excludes people like klee and his thread which, IMHO really deserves to be watched, if you're into trading.

Regards.
The last signal though was not as strong as it should be and we had a sell but statistically there will be some failed signals.

Also, I think this is a bear trap and price will quickly recover above 200k.

Maybe some flash crash in the 13-15 area first, where the shorts have put walls hoping to close their positions there.

I would love to see them panic closing higher though (or even getting margin called), despite wanting to buy more in the same area!  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
February 17, 2016, 03:06:03 PM
i dont get your hint macsga, did you look at the data after all or is this just your conclusion without looking at the exchange?
to me it looks like lending supply is indeed drying out, why this is happening is hard to say.
open positions could be forced to close once they are not able to renew ? or is it possible to change the max lending rate % ?
btw its now at 48k again allready.

I'm looking at the data as clueless as everybody else. My opinion is that you can't judge a chaotic system by just "looking" at it (at least not in short term; in the sense of a couple of years that XMR is here). Since XMR came along my way it really reminded me what BTC really should have been in the first place. None of them is perfect but both fulfill "the job".

"The job" is to have the ability to have electronic money out of the banking system, free of the human greed (and stupidity) to inflate it at will just because they can. The main difference of XMR vs BTC is the former is being able to certify that you may hold your "money" absolutely anonymously (at least more than BTC is).

A long story short; I'm not a TA man. I'm a man of fundamentals. In my world both coins are here to stay, each for their own reasons. They just need their time. As for my trading capabilities; I can only say that I *completely* suck as a trader so you shouldn't listen to me more than anyone else in here. That excludes people like klee and his thread which, IMHO really deserves to be watched, if you're into trading.

Regards.
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 504
February 17, 2016, 01:11:38 PM
The price has currently tested the 165k-170k breakout zone multiple times on high volume. Every time it gets tested and isn't broken it gets stronger. Therefore it is likely it will hold for now. However, this is crypto afterall so who knows what might happen.

+1

I think we're in the middle of the period technically known as "the chill out zone".

Once shorters have reached the bar and gotten a drink, there then inevitably follows a period of "polite conversation" followed by an agreed and accumulative shuffle up to a feverous triple-top.

From there it's a question of what tunes are playing on the sound-system.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
February 17, 2016, 01:09:23 PM
The price has currently tested the 165k-170k breakout zone multiple times on high volume. Every time it gets tested and isn't broken it gets stronger. Therefore it is likely it will hold for now. However, this is crypto afterall so who knows what might happen.

The 165k-170k breakout zone also corresponds to the low of the May 2014 - September 2014 trading range. The upper part of this range around 270k has not been tested during this breakout yet.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
February 17, 2016, 01:04:21 PM
111k dump...interesting...
Lots of margin, I am guessing.  Squeeze should come quick, if so.  Someone remind me where to look up the margin positions on poloniex?

They don't publish it. You can only infer some things from watching the lending market

You can also do recon by offering XMR loans around key resistance points.  They act as trip wires to tell you when there is real demand from the short side.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
February 17, 2016, 12:52:39 PM
The price has currently tested the 165k-170k breakout zone multiple times on high volume. Every time it gets tested and isn't broken it gets stronger. Therefore it is likely it will hold for now. However, this is crypto afterall so who knows what might happen.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1012
Still wild and free
February 17, 2016, 11:48:42 AM
I wonder how much money the mega-manipulator made on poloniex in the past week. A LOT of money just rolled through that place.

im too lazy to track the bitcoin, but here's a start:

https://www.blockseer.com/addresses/17irB8xLxhVRerCoUyypnmpoak3QBpVp2z

thats the polo cold wallet address.

Not a multi-sig???  Shocked
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1008
February 17, 2016, 11:46:04 AM
I wonder how much money the mega-manipulator made on poloniex in the past week. A LOT of money just rolled through that place.

im too lazy to track the bitcoin, but here's a start:

https://www.blockseer.com/addresses/17irB8xLxhVRerCoUyypnmpoak3QBpVp2z

thats the polo cold wallet address.
hero member
Activity: 870
Merit: 585
February 17, 2016, 11:40:22 AM
Shorting means betting on further price drops, so are these shorters idiots, insanely altruistic, or do they know something I don't?
Simple:  shorters wagered that a drop would follow the rise, and they figured to make some money on it.  Short term speculation.
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