i think you guys overestimate the chances of monero going to zero. it really doesn't need much to limp along.
I think you are distributing the probability mass very much like an intelligent and reasonable member of your species and culture, as informed by your specialized insight and experience.
I also think you underestimate the likelihood of the upside because of resulting biases. (If I did not, I would be compelled to agree, which would be boring, since my own discountings are very similarly informed.) You can call it normalcy bias. It's how normal people think, so in that sense it's healthy - until abnormal circumstances make it maladaptive.
Wow so many vapid words. To the chase then:
There are no alternatives. Old discountings fail because socioeconomic superstructure is determined by technological infrastructure, and this technology is exquisitely tuned to the drastic social circumstances racing towards us. Like Marx's vision of the inevitability of communism, I see the inevitability of fungible digital privacy-enabled non-inflationary decentrally antifragile currency glowing before me. It's a perfect storm a-comin' and monero is the only lifeboat which hasn't been spiked.
When the AI tech is right, no vested interests, no legacy legal barriers, will be able to stop the self-driving car. People don't want to die in a stupid crash or waste time with traffic laws and nonsense. There is a way to escape that pain. So people will take that way, pure and simple. 10 years ago such talk would have been a ludicrous fantasy in the minds of those not privy to the state of the art in decision theory, deep learning, graphical models. Those in the know could be excused the social deviance of an accurate estimate of the long term outcome -- but only in retropect, by the vindication of history.
The One Bank ( and really, there is one, just as surely as there is a selfish gene for glyphosate resistance which dominates the North American biosphere - the One Bank is just as real and impactful ) is getting ready for a Big Reset, and you should too. When it comes is an unknown, although I estimate the central tendency as autumn, 2017 - but excellent technocrats could kick the can along for another 2 or 3 years perhaps, if they were to emerge. No way they can drag it out to the demographic dark hour coming in 2023-2025 with verbal easings and whatever it takes. Too many postal carriers will be exploding IEDs by then to carry out the best laid plans undisturbed.
The debt-based indenture money system was the greatest tool ever devised to subjugate the peoples of the Earth, and they actually enjoyed many benefits from that Faustian bargain, in terms of a rising tide of systemic efficiency which raised all boats, but the time-preference distortions have grown so encumbering that all the energy has been sucked out of the system. The cake is a lie, now. A profoundly explosive change in the economic system is coming as the stabilizing bonds of systemic confidence are dissolved by the universal acid of survival instinct.
Iterated exponential indebtedness is not something human technocrats can manage for a full human lifespan. The non-stationary dynamics of iterated diffusive maps alone justify mathematical confidence that chaotic instability is the best possible end game on fiat currency, the alternative being the peaceful stasis of death. Precious metals and crypto are the only financial assets likely to survive unscathed. And p.m.s are just too easy to control, as the FDR and Soviet cases demonstrated. Bitcoin? Don't make me laugh - it hurts too much.
At least 2% in the 5th category, c'mon. And certainly enough to hang your Kelly hat on.
