Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1688. (Read 3313576 times)

I'm happy everyone paying attention (ie the people who matter) will have ~2 years to acquire Monero at ~$1.

Our well-seeded ecosystem may then blossom into vibrant fecundity.

You guys catch this Epic Tweet?


https://twitter.com/balajis/status/655664767567171584

I have noticed same pattern of alts acting opposite of BTC but it is not always true with XMR.

Why do you like both XMR and XRP? They seem like complete opposites (in terms of privacy).

usually you expect this to continue. I think it will in the near term to medium term.

Then what happens, BTC falls and alts rally and the cycle repeats until at some point prices are in the clouds...bubble pops, cycle repeats with bear market.

If BTC breaks 275 all alts* will get hammered hard. At some point they will bottom (regardless of BTC price action) and then they will bubble.

If BTC goes below 230 I expect XMR to rally hard too.

*(The alts that I have under my trading radar are XMR, BTS, ETH, XRP & a bit NXT - I am afraid that the latter may never bounce, so I am watching only for the moment..)

The emission is the only thing we have to deal with it, I would be worried if Monero was much more expensive and the emission did not allowed "fair" entry points even months or years after launch, thats why I have put my personal deadline for Monero 'make it or break it' further in the future, I have not lowered my expectations but simply reckoned the impact of the bear market and the emission. Most people that would be interested or eventually use Monero cannot or won't mine it, so they will exchange fiat or goods for Monero (also from a legal perspective nothing beats the POW coin generation safe haven) thats why liquidity is important (and Monero will be mined forever) so when people interested in Monero want to buy, its available at exchanges at reasonable quantities, these Moneroj proceed to be used in a Monero economy, thats why I believe deflationary coins are doomed, in case of Bitcoin the 1mb block limit does not help either, it will lead to a process of fiatization of the blockchain with services working as intermediates like coinbase and others with power over your transaction history that only the NSA or USG could dream of (not that they don't automatically have access to coinbase records). The Bitcoin visionaries of the past not helping build Monero or a better e-cash are building a dystopic future.

During downtrends it has always been like this. Could just be traders willing to buy back lower (also, we had a few big shorters). Miners cashing out, but due to lower buying pressure we went down more. Could also be that miners that previously held their coins exhibited signs of reverse FOMO (missing out on buy walls :-P). Then there is also market manipulation, which can easily be observed by the stacking of asks someone is doing. ArticMine's reasoning makes sense as well. I don't think it was someone big cashing out, just a collective of all reasons described that did the trick.

It should also be noted that alts are getting slaughtered in general. All top 20 alts went down significantly and the main reason of this was the soar of bitcoin's price. So it could very well be that we are just correlating with that.

Trying to predict the price of Monero is coming down to predicting the timing of the release of the 0.9 tagged binaries. The recent market behaviour is very indicative of this. After the first deadline for a code freeze of September 15, 2015 https://forum.getmonero.org/4/academic-and-technical/303/a-formal-approach-towards-better-hard-fork-management passed with no news the market started to go down. On September 17, 2015 we were at 0.00227, by September 29, 2015 the low of 0.00131 was reached. We are now at 0.00147 after the second deadline for a code release of October 15, 2015 has passed.

Edit: The recent selling pressure can easily be attributed to market participants reaching the conclusion that this project is simply not able to make a tagged release.

I wonder who has been cashing out. This sell pressure seemed way higher than daily emission. Some of it was shorting sure, but that doesnt amount to full number of coins in the dumps we saw.

If true, wonder what the rationale was.

I'm not afraid to say it - I've been buying all the way down.

Yeah, I've been waiting for it too for at least 3 days - never came; so I said "what the heck, let's do it" and bought at this region here. If the rebound starts, I don't think anyone will have the ability to ride to the train; the best buying occurs "on the way down"...

It may solve those problems, but wealth inequality is a fact of nature and not a problem. Also it does grow worse unless and at the same time:
- there is plenty of inflation
- the monetary system is based on wealth and not debt.

Currently we lack the latter, and in the future perhaps the former.

No one can ever be sure unless they reveal their true actions.

But my haunch says I am right. This is a critical region. Here and a bit lower (maybe 0.001275)... then I see a rebound.

You can't be sure. It could be translated differently: "We are not buying a single Monero until the price is 0.001. Everything I have said concerning the principles is fully in force, of course, so after that we'll continue accumulating as much as we could  "

A government will of course not adopt something they can't control and adjust, so this can't happen. Even if one regime can, they next one will go to election on changing the parameters of the currency so they can bribe the electorate. And of course, special interest groups will join the parade so they can regain the power of money printing.

Also, other things would be needed to fix the problems, it's not just the currency but a myriad of laws and restrictions that create barriers to entry into the economy

The only solution is a system of money that cannot be controlled by special interest groups and has a opt-in adoption system without coercion or violence. The case for having a free market for money is so obvious that it is painful to see that people are not demanding it.

Here's what I was wondering today.  
  
After watching the famous video about the awful wealth inequality in the United States:  
https://youtu.be/QPKKQnijnsM  
  
I started wondering: is it the wealth inequality that's the problem or the velocity of the wealth inequality?  The rich aren't just getting richer; they are getting richer faster and all new money that is being created is funnelled to their coffers.  Since the new money that is being created never stops, there is never time for any of this money (or incentive) to slosh down to the lower classes, either in the form of high taxes or economic development.
  
Let's say we had the exact same situation as the U.S. Dollar today bundled up in Monero (in reality it might even be worse considering that half of all Monero is already mined:)  
  
 
  
Now what would happen if there were a tight limit on how many new US Dollars could be created a year?  What other government policies might influence the "slosh" of money in a system?  Money reflects a social liquid that is exchanged between humans, and the big problems only happen when the faucet is turned on and left on.  Do you think wealth inequality would *stay* bad or would slowly grow more idea as time went on in a currency with very limited inflation?  Is the nature of Monero: equal access, privacy, and strict limits on creation going to automatically solve the run away debt and inflation problems that we are facing currently?

translation: "we are accumulating" 

IMHO, XMR is the perfect diversification vehicle. I don't own anything else (apart from BTC & XMR) as primary crypto-assets at the moment. XMR incorporates what BTC doesn't, which is a nice excuse for me when I see these prices to just dive in without much hesitation. Within 1y time it evolved much more than BTC did.

Bottom line, I'd advise you to buy "as much as you don't blame yourself if it goes 1:1 with the BTC, and as much as you don't care if it goes to zero".

@Risto:
We figured out that much...

I I'm interested in monero as an investment.  for me it could be at 40 cents forever.  I only care for it as means of protecting ones privacy and anonymity. thus I really hope in near future you will be able to use xmr  to directly pay for service and products without the use of public blockchain as in bitcoin or litecoin.

I cannot say much at this time because I don't want to give signal as to what my "wealth management empire" is doing. Everything I have said concerning the principles is fully in force, of course 

After waiting for triple zeros, I decided that it won't happen and the best thing to do is to go all in today. Nearly doubled down my XMR portfolio. I foresee that we won't see lower than 0.0014 for a long time to come. Let's see where's the new top now, shall we?