Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1704. (Read 3313576 times)

So, after reading yet another bullshit article about private blockchains and industries using blockchains without bitcoin -

http://www.fastcompany.com/3051679/innovation-agents/the-future-of-bitcoin-isnt-bitcoin-its-bigger-than-that

I was reminded how valuable the Monero network will eventually become once these industries realize a few things about the new digital era. All of these ventures touting private blockchains or privileged access really, in my opinion, don't understand the utility of a trustless consensus ledger. However, they apparently understand the weakness of the public blockchain in that they forfeit sovereignty of their information to the public database. This has to be the only reason they seek to develop their own private blockchains. These companies could buy all the bitcoin they wanted to use the bitcoin blockchain as their ledger. They could also buy mining farms to control the protocol of the consensus network.

Thus, I speculate that once these companies fail in their experiments with centralized blockchains (i.e., they implement them, and then years down the line party A modifies the ledger that is used between parties A B and C in order for A to profit), they'll realize that opaque blockchains with user-controlled access to information are the real solution. A trustless consensus ledger verified by any and all participants without any loss of information sovereignty.

Perhaps we should contact Arvind Narayanan or Paul Chou and get their opinion on the value of Monero.

Guys apologies for the mess but it seems that either my data fetch engine or Polo API is buggy!

This is the correct RSI chart (actually it was the reason I found the bug):




Fortunately this chart is also bullish!   


Again apologies for the inconvenience...

Good! Actually, I think only XMR & XRP will be bullish short term (and maybe BTS).

Thx. I will check the link. But, just shortly, wanted to know whatever the graphs show is good or bad for the monero?

Sure! What is the part you don't understand, how RSI works, how P&F or both?

Did you read dEBRUYNE's link on P&F?
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/03/081303.asp

For RSI:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asp


So long story short, RSI alone gave an indication in 1d zoom that we are probably oversold.

So how to find more clues? Enter P&F.

RSI's chart can be converted to P&F format (I did it) where we can see more clearly the momentum (this is the power of P&F charts).
When an X column exceeds the previous one (the same applies for O columns) we have 'positive' momentum! So in the chart I made we see this happening.

In addition we double bottomed (2 successive O columns in the same price) before the X breakout and below the 30 price, which gave us more power to the jump upwards.

Can't explain it better, I hope someone else can help if you still have questions.

Later I will update the chart with the new data from yesterday's close price...

If you can set up mining, you can likely set up your own wallet. Miners are usually technically competent people. We can extrapolate from that. It would likely be a minority of miners only using it as a convenient wallet. It doesn't mean that all what one miner mines is sold. They could sell a large percentage and keep a small one.

May not necessarily be for immediate selling (though it certainly could be).

Some people just use exchanges as convenient wallets.

Obviously this has downsides and I don't recommend using exchanges as wallets, but we can't deny it is common.

People are putting their nose to the grindstone. Those busy with working likely spend (or waste if you may) less time in public forums.

Fuck it im buying some more XMR. What do you guys think the low is going to be? .0013?

Wheat was tough sledding for a while, but I traded it well, no losses -- it went up before it went down, which is all the slack I needed to avoid a loss -- and it has done quite well for me today.  Fact is, my monkey is very, very smart, in the domains of FX,FI,Equities and Futures (not so much in crypto).  But that's just an edge, not a guarantee, and requires interpretation, which is all on me, and my wee, delusional brain.  It required years of losses to learn to interpret the monkey well, but at this point, I (when monkey-reinforced) am without a doubt the best market timer of whom I am aware, and pretty consistently profitable - not one down week this year, although many down days - yet still I have more than enough false starts, whipsaws, stop-losses, etc. to keep me humble and wary (relative to my naturally overweening arrogant baseline, of course).  SPX has been most lucrative for me, followed by XAUXAG, which I traded very badly, and should have been much more profitable than it was, given the relative accuracy of my advance predictors.  Oh, yeah, and GBPJPY was velly, velly good to me as well.  Treasuries did fairly well too.  I may short them again in a week or so.  If I didn't have a day job, I'd probably be quite wealthy at this point.  But I love my day job, so I just can't quit.  I must restrict myself to a few swing trades, as a result.



I have little clue, but it sure isn't going to hurt XBTUSD.  Breaking 270 will be a crucial test.  Last halving was a rocket-sled to bubble-land.  I enjoyed it enough to become really annoying to civilians in the neighborhood.  Last bubble LTC lagged BTC, then was flung past it when the bubble popped.  Do I think XMR will behave like LTC did then?  No strong predictors here, I think.  I consider financial repression to be a better omen for XMR than a BTC bubble, and consider the likelihood of a BTC bubble to be much lower than it was in 2013, when all the stars were aligned, what with Silk Road, the Willy Bot, Cyprus, the halving, and a mining gold-rush all going on at once.  Could happen again, but not likely.  Moreover the structural factors defining the role of LTC relative to BTC in 2013 and those defining the role of XMR relative to BTC in 2015 are very, very different.  I am hopeful, but disinclined to draw a strong analogy.

A bubble run is likely, yes.  I suspect it will be faded pretty heavily, and peter out quickly, due to professionals in the game now.  If so, then it might become a long, slow, sustainable ramp before it blows off a top, if it ever does.  The channel by which that is most likely to aid XMR, in my opinion, is by drawing increased attention to crypto, such that when the failings of BTC become painful, many more users will find XMR to be the most fit alternative for their purposes.  The time required for that machinery to grind to completion is likely to frustrate most XMR speculators, but please most long holders at some almost unknowable point in the future.  It's still the best digital cash technology, and I see no reason for that to change.  To the contrary, as slow as progress has been, still the technology seems to be improving fitness for purpose faster than competitive innovators can catch up.  I guess they each have their own obstacles to progress.  XMR basically only has one:  Funding.

I was just taking a tour around the pools and see that dwarfpool lists their top 20 miners.  4 of the addresses start with Poloniex.com and one with Bittrex.com.  I take it that these are mining directly to the exchanges for selling.  The top 2 miners on dwarfpool each have over 15x the hash rate of #3 and one of those is a Polo address with a HR of 835KH/s.  The network is at 12MH/s so that one miner has 7% of the network HR and I assume this will all be sold.  All 5 of the exchange addresses listed = 920KH/s or 7.67% of the current network HR.

Thank you for this explanation, but still dont understand anything. Could you ELI5?

You are welcome dEBRUYNE!

Ok, so we have the 1D RSI indicator of XMR in Point & Figure format.

RSI gives us an estimation that the market is oversold/overbought ( =<30 and >=70 respectively). If you go at https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc try to find the RSI at Settings -> Indicator.

IMO, for alt coins the two timeframes that make sense (especially in XMR's case) are the 1d & 3d. So configure accordingly the chart.

So we see there that we have broken the 30 level for good and the price bounced above it briefly (1D) and now is standing almost on top of it. If we manage to continue rising towards the 50 level it means that we bottomed.

Enter P&F. The difference in the P&F RSI format is that we see more clearly that the RSI made a double bottom at 29 and broke out at 36 (at least when I drew the chart, afterwards it went back to 34). That is a bullish signal, meaning that the RSI 'price' managed to overcome resistance and it showed rising momentum. This combined with the fact that below 30 the market is considered oversold, are IMHO bullish signs.

As for the XMR P&F chart (1d CLOSE, log scale, 3% box size, reversal 3):
 
                                                            IGNORE the chart




We reversed from 0.00154911 at 0.00161201.
Support is 0.00156460-0.00158025, sell signal if we close below 0.00154911 (0.00153377).

Bearish resistance at 0.00174558-0.00176303, 0.00215123-0.00217274.

Watch out for the double top at 0.00221642 (strong resistance).

Heavy resistance between 0.00226097-0.00235277, free at 0.00237630 (provided that we will continue in the same X column).

EDIT: Forgot to mention that the buy signal is at 0.00179847

I suggest to read this first -> http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/03/081303.asp. If you still have questions after that, you can direct them at klee (or me).

@klee, thanks for posting that here. I (and others probably as well) certainly appreciate that.

I never understood how to read those graphs... What do they mean, and how can you tell if something has "bottomed out" and can only go up from there?

We might have bottomed:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.12670950

Thanks @dEBRUYNE

That would apply to quite a few I think and not just in XMR.

Someone else and me asked this two months ago as well. He is still active, just less public:


In addition, a relevant comment from smooth: