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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1731. (Read 3313576 times)

legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
September 30, 2015, 08:39:04 PM
I just bought some. Think will rebound to its proper price of 200-220K within the next 36 hours and stabilize there until the end of the year. Any speculation on the dip? It was certainly notable.

From action in the lending market it very much looks like a large amount of short selling, as noted earlier on this thread. That might be manipulative (trying to force margin calls on leveraged longs) or it could be people overreacting to the ZeroCash stuff, or something else.
hero member
Activity: 912
Merit: 1021
If you don’t believe, why are you here?
September 30, 2015, 08:32:43 PM
I just bought some. Think will rebound to its proper price of 200-220K within the next 36 hours and stabilize there until the end of the year. Any speculation on the dip? It was certainly notable.
full member
Activity: 231
Merit: 100
September 30, 2015, 08:32:02 PM
about zerocash. This is what can be found on the website

Quote
How does Zerocash work?

Zerocash extends the protocol and software underlying Bitcoin by adding new, privacy-preserving payments. In doing so it forms a new protocol that, while using some of the same technology and software as Bitcoin, is distinct from it. This new protocol has both anonymous coins, dubbed zerocoins, and non-anonymous ones, which, for purposes of disambiguation, we call basecoins. In contrast to Bitcoin's transactions, payment transactions using the Zerocash protocol do not contain any public information about the payment's origin, destination, or amount; instead, the correctness of the transaction is demonstrated via the use of a zero-knowledge proof. Users can convert from basecoins to zerocoins, send zerocoins to other users, and split or merge zerocoins they own in any way that preserves the total value. Users may also convert zerocoins back into basecoins, though in principle this is not necessary: all transactions can be made in terms of zerocoins.

There are some issues with this protocol

1) fungibility: by introducing basecoins, payment processors, exchnages, governments etc can force you to use these basecoins. When you use the zerocoins, you are flagged by default. Basically there is no difference when you use the ConfidentialTransactions-Sidechain or coinjoin.
2) zerocoin transactions will probably be larger, so people will try to avoid paying the fees by making as little zerocoin transactions as possible
3) due to the fact that eventually only people who want to hide a crime will use the zerocoins, it will be possible that when you get coins out, there is a possibility to link those coins to coins that were put into the zerocoin-pool. So it's tricky... Be aware of this or you'll use your anonimity.

compare this to XMR:
1) when mixin 0 isn't possible anymore (soonTM) all transaction outputs (except the minted coins) are mixed by default. So you can't be forced not to use mixing.
2) because all tractions will have a minimum mixin, you can't avoid paying the fees. Paranoid people pay more for higher mixin.
3) everybody uses mixin, so it's impossible to detect money flows on the network

I do not agree with the bolded.. It's the same argument we use for why xmr or other privacy tools are important.. Why do you claim only criminals want to use zerocoin?
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
September 30, 2015, 08:30:01 PM
ShapeShift started to use mixin and had to stop due to problems.  

Coming soon there will be a service that allows BTC -> XMR transfers supporting mixins 3+ by default and payment IDs.

 Wink


Would it be difficult to make, for example, buy ppl running xmr.to? Now xmr.to does xmr->btc, but the reverse service with strong take on privacy and anonymity, could also be useful I think.
legendary
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1004
September 30, 2015, 07:49:01 PM
ShapeShift started to use mixin and had to stop due to problems.  

Coming soon there will be a service that allows BTC -> XMR transfers supporting mixins 3+ by default and payment IDs.

 Wink
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
September 30, 2015, 05:30:11 PM
Any speculation on when will Monero have a useable and bug-free GUI wallet?

No exact date, but just a range estimation: weeks, months?

MyMonero was launched last October, and is one candidate technology to be included to Crypto Kingdom player-controlled out-of-game account, which can be accessed from the game, but the players only holding the use key. The players also control their ingame wallets, which feature instant and free transactions, but have the counterparty risk because the actual XMR is deposited with a treasurer and the game can change their balance (similar to exchange accounts).
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
September 30, 2015, 05:01:07 PM


Congratulations to everyone who has made this the #1 thread, now by Views in addition to Replies!

thx for your moderation smooth!
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 512
September 30, 2015, 04:59:43 PM
Any speculation on when will Monero have a useable and bug-free GUI wallet?

No exact date, but just a range estimation: weeks, months?
legendary
Activity: 1105
Merit: 1000
September 30, 2015, 04:59:25 PM


Congratulations to everyone who has made this the #1 thread, now by Views in addition to Replies!

Congrats to you on this very successful thread, with (IMO) mostly high SNR and few moderator actions required.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
September 30, 2015, 04:55:04 PM


Congratulations to everyone who has made this the #1 thread, now by Views in addition to Replies!
legendary
Activity: 1624
Merit: 1008
September 30, 2015, 04:31:47 PM
The price is now down to 8 deposit bottles/XMR.

One 1-liter bottle buys you more than 1 XMR...

In the US it varies by state but where I am deposit bottles, and cans, are 5 cents regardless of size and has been for 50 years.  We beat inflation!!!! Roll Eyes

I found 1.5 XMR today Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 453
Merit: 500
hello world
September 30, 2015, 04:23:42 PM
thank you all, good guys like always Kiss

not that you need to convince me, but yeah my glass is sometimes half-empty, very powerfull skill if not used too often Cheesy

if 0.9 runs fine they will upgrade by themselfs, if it does not, well..then it would be unwise to force them to anyway.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
September 30, 2015, 04:17:44 PM
ShapeShift started to use mixin and had to stop due to problems.  Will the 0.9 release deal with whatever issues they were having?

Yes it will. The problem was some of their coins not being mixable. All coins will be mixable.
hero member
Activity: 649
Merit: 500
September 30, 2015, 04:15:52 PM

Could you elaborate on fluffypony's comments? I always enjoy reading them.


Like it was mentioned earlier he was talking about those who use Zerocash for "anything of substancial value"
Quote
4) I love Zerocash, and I am convinced that the cryptocurrency of the future will be a descendent of Zerocash. But that's the far future, like 20-30 years, when their newfangled cryptography has been tried, tested, broken, fixed, etc. Between now and then Monero has a role to play. If it is used for anything of substantial value before it reaches sufficient maturity...well, the risk is phenomenal, and a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money. I am happy to let it play out, and for Monero to continue to evolve well beyond "just" a private cryptocurrency.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
September 30, 2015, 04:11:36 PM
The price is now down to 8 deposit bottles/XMR.

One 1-liter bottle buys you more than 1 XMR...
legendary
Activity: 1624
Merit: 1008
September 30, 2015, 04:03:52 PM
thank you for giving more details dEBRUYNE. yes i also think mostly everyone will upgrade, and those who can not will be given some time to adapt. i run 0.9 for a long time now allready.
but isn't the amount of transactions with mixing 0 important? maybe i missunderstood something there Roll Eyes if there are a lot of transactions with mixing 0, this is bad for all of us no? or ist it such a problem becasue of the stealth adresses?

Stealth addresses are 100% not affected at all and certainly give a measure of privacy even if mixing is totally broken. Of course the privacy is far less than if mixing worked perfectly (otherwise why even bother with mixing!), but it does't fall to zero.

I tend to have more of a glass-half-full view on this which is to say that if you look at the recent stats (on moneroblocks.eu), the share of mix 0 transactions last year was 80%. Last month it was 67%. The number will surely continue to decline when 0.9 is released and people make the transition to having an enforced minimum in six months.



As far as the % that use mixins it seems a large part of the problem are the exchanges that don't/can't use it now.

ShapeShift started to use mixin and had to stop due to problems.  Will the 0.9 release deal with whatever issues they were having?


Yes I'm back now and I see the price has recovered to 170.  hmmmmmmmmm

The price is now down to 8 deposit bottles/XMR.  
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
September 30, 2015, 04:02:45 PM
Thanks to TheKoziTwo we have this neat little feature -> http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php?currency=XMR

Basically you can watch the interest rates and offerings live now. As you can see the rates are still high and the total offers low. It could be possible that the big shorters didn't close their shorts yet and are borrowing more XMR to put on the ask side in order to supress the price. So don't get fooled by all the asks :-)
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
September 30, 2015, 03:53:40 PM
about zerocash. This is what can be found on the website

Quote
How does Zerocash work?

Zerocash extends the protocol and software underlying Bitcoin by adding new, privacy-preserving payments. In doing so it forms a new protocol that, while using some of the same technology and software as Bitcoin, is distinct from it. This new protocol has both anonymous coins, dubbed zerocoins, and non-anonymous ones, which, for purposes of disambiguation, we call basecoins. In contrast to Bitcoin's transactions, payment transactions using the Zerocash protocol do not contain any public information about the payment's origin, destination, or amount; instead, the correctness of the transaction is demonstrated via the use of a zero-knowledge proof. Users can convert from basecoins to zerocoins, send zerocoins to other users, and split or merge zerocoins they own in any way that preserves the total value. Users may also convert zerocoins back into basecoins, though in principle this is not necessary: all transactions can be made in terms of zerocoins.

There are some issues with this protocol

1) fungibility: by introducing basecoins, payment processors, exchnages, governments etc can force you to use these basecoins. When you use the zerocoins, you are flagged by default. Basically there is no difference when you use the ConfidentialTransactions-Sidechain or coinjoin.
2) zerocoin transactions will probably be larger, so people will try to avoid paying the fees by making as little zerocoin transactions as possible
3) due to the fact that eventually only people who want to hide a crime will use the zerocoins, it will be possible that when you get coins out, there is a possibility to link those coins to coins that were put into the zerocoin-pool. So it's tricky... Be aware of this or you'll use your anonimity.

compare this to XMR:
1) when mixin 0 isn't possible anymore (soonTM) all transaction outputs (except the minted coins) are mixed by default. So you can't be forced not to use mixing.
2) because all tractions will have a minimum mixin, you can't avoid paying the fees. Paranoid people pay more for higher mixin.
3) everybody uses mixin, so it's impossible to detect money flows on the network
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
September 30, 2015, 03:43:22 PM
thank you for giving more details dEBRUYNE. yes i also think mostly everyone will upgrade, and those who can not will be given some time to adapt. i run 0.9 for a long time now allready.
but isn't the amount of transactions with mixing 0 important? maybe i missunderstood something there Roll Eyes if there are a lot of transactions with mixing 0, this is bad for all of us no? or ist it such a problem becasue of the stealth adresses?

regarding fluffys comments: think in the end these are just different kind of views. he said quite a few times that monero is not an investment. i can really understand his view and it is also true, buy and hodl wont work, especially if none builds the ecosystem. but the markets and liquidity providers are part of the ecosystem too, they are the core and yes these people are investors and they will lose most if it wont work out.

i hope this dump was the peak of moneros liquidity crisis, my heart says yes but my mind says no  Lips sealed


I hope smooth commented sufficiently on the first part of your comment (in addition, yes a higher average mixin is better for all of us since it provides more privacy). So I'll take a shot at the second. I think he said this in the Europe missive, not sure though. But if you listened correctly to him, he said something like: "I acknowledge that traders, speculators, markets and liquidity providers are part of the eco system and contribute to this project. However, I don't like the people that buy an amount, go away and sit on their asses for 2 years and hope to get rich suddenly." So it's more a dislike towards people that don't contribute to the eco-system.
legendary
Activity: 1105
Merit: 1000
September 30, 2015, 03:35:30 PM
thank you for giving more details dEBRUYNE. yes i also think mostly everyone will upgrade, and those who can not will be given some time to adapt. i run 0.9 for a long time now allready.
but isn't the amount of transactions with mixing 0 important? maybe i missunderstood something there Roll Eyes if there are a lot of transactions with mixing 0, this is bad for all of us no? or ist it such a problem becasue of the stealth adresses?

Stealth addresses are 100% not affected at all and certainly give a measure of privacy even if mixing is totally broken. Of course the privacy is far less than if mixing worked perfectly (otherwise why even bother with mixing!), but it does't fall to zero.

I tend to have more of a glass-half-full view on this which is to say that if you look at the recent stats (on moneroblocks.eu), the share of mix 0 transactions last year was 80%. Last month it was 67%. The number will surely continue to decline when 0.9 is released and people make the transition to having an enforced minimum in six months.


Pssh, silly optimist.
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