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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1784. (Read 3313576 times)

legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
August 20, 2015, 05:10:19 PM
Nice uptrend channel. I hope this can continue for a long time!

hero member
Activity: 564
Merit: 502
August 20, 2015, 02:57:16 PM
reverse HS, beginning on aug 11th
http://themerkle.com/market-analysis/monero-technical-analysis-for-08152015

furthermore traders imo dont trust btc anymore as a solid investment, the bitching about blocksize etc, the flashcrash recently.
eth isnt a reliable investment atm, too many questionmarks, i think.

Bottomline is xmr is better Cheesy Hence higher prices.


Risto, could you tell us something about any plans regarding a Finnish company willing to invest in xmr?
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
August 20, 2015, 02:38:54 PM
I think we live at a time in human history where it is silly to even speculate about *anything* 150 years down the road.  
  
We might as well be sitting around the bar in 1885 discussing what railroad company will dominate the globe in the year 2010.  By that point the focus of sentience may have shifted to an operating level we can't even conceive of at the moment.  
  
So it would behove us to speculate a few decades down the road, at most.  We should aim to build and support products that have a reasonable chance of still existing in 2050.  
  
Could "x" theoretically still be useful and valuable in 2050?  In Monero's case, the answer is yes.
  


10 years seems a very long time to speculate, given current global financial and political tensions.  We could all be searching desperately for our next meal by then.
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748
August 20, 2015, 02:34:08 PM

I agree with this one.
However, I have been pondering how Monero looks after 150 years? And guess what? Chances are it still survives thanks to tail emission which makes sure there is always someone(s) mining it and processing transactions.


You think the chances are that XMR survives in 150 years?!

There are multiple possible endgames but most of my predictions say that XMR doesn't succeed in the scope that we're talking about at all let alone to succeed and still be around in 150 years.

150 years? Cough. Splutter.

I am pretty sure I am not going to make it that far, so it is academical to me.   And a year, Jeez even one year is a long time in Crypto.

I hope we won't have to wait for anything LIKE that long to see a little pleasing action.

If it isn't making waves in the next year or two far bigger than now, something else could easily arrive which will surpass it.

Advance, or fade away.  We are looking good right now, there is palpable and reassuring momentum.  But ultimately developments, events and the market will decide.



hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
August 20, 2015, 02:27:26 PM
I think we live at a time in human history where it is silly to even speculate about *anything* 150 years down the road.  
  
We might as well be sitting around the bar in 1885 discussing what railroad company will dominate the globe in the year 2010.  By that point the focus of sentience may have shifted to an operating level we can't even conceive of at the moment.  
  
So it would behove us to speculate a few decades down the road, at most.  We should aim to build and support products that have a reasonable chance of still existing in 2050.  
  
Could "x" theoretically still be useful and valuable in 2050?  In Monero's case, the answer is yes.
  
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
August 20, 2015, 02:09:52 PM

I agree with this one.
However, I have been pondering how Monero looks after 150 years? And guess what? Chances are it still survives thanks to tail emission which makes sure there is always someone(s) mining it and processing transactions.


You think the chances are that XMR survives in 150 years?!

There are multiple possible endgames but most of my predictions say that XMR doesn't succeed in the scope that we're talking about at all let alone to succeed and still be around in 150 years.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
August 20, 2015, 02:07:19 PM
I think one source might be also some hard core bitcoiners starting accumulating Monero.
They are not publishing it to drive the price up but I assume they have realized btc is not going to 1000 usd each any time soon or even never again. Bitcoin was a good investment for those who invested into it in 2011-2012 but not so good anymore.



BTC will definitely reach $1000 usd at some point in the future. The Block Reward halving guarantees it.

You seem so sure.
 
 

I would actually not be surprised if Monero eventually overtook Bitcoin, and possibly another currency even overtook Monero.

I agree with this one.
However, I have been pondering how Monero looks after 150 years? And guess what? Chances are it still survives thanks to tail emission which makes sure there is always someone(s) mining it and processing transactions.
People who critisize Monero always seem to critisize of its large Database which makes it challenging to download into PC if one doesn't trust in the privacy of a webwallet.

That being said, Monero might indeed being replaced by some coin but personally I do not think it will happen any time soon. The new coin should be somehow better than XMR. For me it is hard to imagine what features could that mysterious new coin own.

And I am not personally even surprised by the market reactions. I hope we have OTC markets taking larger buy orders for big bitcoin whales who are in the process of shifting their paradigm.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
August 20, 2015, 02:03:57 PM
I think one source might be also some hard core bitcoiners starting accumulating Monero.
They are not publishing it to drive the price up but I assume they have realized btc is not going to 1000 usd each any time soon or even never again. Bitcoin was a good investment for those who invested into it in 2011-2012 but not so good anymore.



BTC will definitely reach $1000 usd at some point in the future. The Block Reward halving guarantees it.

You seem so sure.
 
 
The original public ledger is worth a trillion dollars at least, in the end game.  I can't imagine a situation where crypto reigns and the longest running ledger in our species doesn't carry some large value. 
 
That doesn't mean that it will be the *most* valuable, only that its value should be pretty secure over time. 
 
I would actually not be surprised if Monero eventually overtook Bitcoin, and possibly another currency even overtook Monero.

There are multiple possible end games.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
August 20, 2015, 01:32:13 PM
I think one source might be also some hard core bitcoiners starting accumulating Monero.
They are not publishing it to drive the price up but I assume they have realized btc is not going to 1000 usd each any time soon or even never again. Bitcoin was a good investment for those who invested into it in 2011-2012 but not so good anymore.



BTC will definitely reach $1000 usd at some point in the future. The Block Reward halving guarantees it.

You seem so sure.
 
 
The original public ledger is worth a trillion dollars at least, in the end game.  I can't imagine a situation where crypto reigns and the longest running ledger in our species doesn't carry some large value. 
 
That doesn't mean that it will be the *most* valuable, only that its value should be pretty secure over time. 
 
I would actually not be surprised if Monero eventually overtook Bitcoin, and possibly another currency even overtook Monero.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
August 20, 2015, 01:29:21 PM
I think one source might be also some hard core bitcoiners starting accumulating Monero.
They are not publishing it to drive the price up but I assume they have realized btc is not going to 1000 usd each any time soon or even never again. Bitcoin was a good investment for those who invested into it in 2011-2012 but not so good anymore.



BTC will definitely reach $1000 usd at some point in the future. The Block Reward halving guarantees it.

You seem so sure.
sr. member
Activity: 379
Merit: 250
August 20, 2015, 01:25:49 PM
I think one source might be also some hard core bitcoiners starting accumulating Monero.
They are not publishing it to drive the price up but I assume they have realized btc is not going to 1000 usd each any time soon or even never again. Bitcoin was a good investment for those who invested into it in 2011-2012 but not so good anymore.



BTC will definitely reach $1000 usd at some point in the future. The Block Reward halving guarantees it.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
August 20, 2015, 01:07:33 PM
I think one source might be also some hard core bitcoiners starting accumulating Monero.
They are not publishing it to drive the price up but I assume they have realized btc is not going to 1000 usd each any time soon or even never again. Bitcoin was a good investment for those who invested into it in 2011-2012 but not so good anymore.
sr. member
Activity: 453
Merit: 500
hello world
August 20, 2015, 12:14:08 PM
i woke up and thought shit, close to 50 cents again? damn i have to buy some!
some others had the same idea, what a suprise Grin

looks ike it didnt need much to push price up nearly 20%, refreshing!
the day it spikes up and we all think "fuck this shit it will come down again anyway" will be the day it clears all resistance. dont know what day this will be, chances are high its not today, or is it?  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748
August 20, 2015, 11:37:24 AM
Whole thread sleeping? Massive buying going on, >0.0026!

Hope that's not all - around 0.0026 seems resistance level, and not massive on the bid side just now.  That said an attack on 0.003 would be refreshing, let's see if it's got legs.  Might attract some of that bored money from the new No.1 in Polo volume to take a punt.
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748
August 20, 2015, 11:30:00 AM
Monero currently adjusting in effective dollar price terms to BTC's fall?

It's still way what it was recently if this is indeed an indicator.

Whatever the reason, green candles are good to see...
full member
Activity: 158
Merit: 100
August 20, 2015, 11:29:14 AM
Whole thread sleeping? Massive buying going on, >0.0026!
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1008
August 20, 2015, 09:30:53 AM
I'm about to release a network speculation chart... but I need a reasonable guess as to how many Monero users there currently are.  
  
Would you say 5,000?  10,000?

Just check how many addresses with a balance on the blockchain  Tongue
 
  
Considering we have 2,200 subscribers to /r/Monero, I'll assume there are about 5,000 to 7,000 people worldwide interested in Monero as a store of value/transaction.  Of course it's all speculation anyway, but I just need a point of reference to calibrate the chart with. 
 
Bullshit will beget bullshit in this case.  The number can be updated later if needed.

In summer 2014, there was already about 7,000 XMR accounts in Poloniex alone. (Even still, I might say that the global number of users is under 10k atm).

to me whats mind boggling is the amount of nodes running monero. That reddit post indicates there are ~70. Which is *good* considering the amount of change set to occur over the next year, but surprising considering the interest in the technology. Just goes to show the consequences of a huge memory footprint and compiling requirements. Which reminds me, I need to update that VM linux compile video.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
August 20, 2015, 03:25:24 AM
I'm about to release a network speculation chart... but I need a reasonable guess as to how many Monero users there currently are.  
  
Would you say 5,000?  10,000?

Just check how many addresses with a balance on the blockchain  Tongue
 
  
Considering we have 2,200 subscribers to /r/Monero, I'll assume there are about 5,000 to 7,000 people worldwide interested in Monero as a store of value/transaction.  Of course it's all speculation anyway, but I just need a point of reference to calibrate the chart with. 
 
Bullshit will beget bullshit in this case.  The number can be updated later if needed.

In summer 2014, there was already about 7,000 XMR accounts in Poloniex alone. (Even still, I might say that the global number of users is under 10k atm).
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
August 19, 2015, 10:35:26 PM
One more: Inspired by an Episode VII poster I saw online.   Grin

hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
August 19, 2015, 10:17:03 PM
Also, if you want to play around with the Monero Speculation Spreadsheet yourself, you are free to download it at:  
  
https://www.dropbox.com/s/k1267hufb5426gj/Monero%20Speculation%20Tool.zip?dl=0  
  
I uploaded it in a few different formats, Excel modern, Excel compatibility, and a web spreadsheet format.  The whole thing should work pretty well with you just modifying the two values on the right side but feel free to do whatever you want with it.  (Note: the description of the formula for Column C is incorrect, even though the formula is.  This doesn't affect the functionality of the spreadsheet, but it should read: (MMV x [Speculation Variable ^ Network Acceleration Factor]), my bad.)
  

 
  
(it's an Excel file, but there aren't any macros and it's a pretty basic spreadsheet built from scratch - I assure you as much as I'm able to that it's clean)
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