Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1792. (Read 3313576 times)

While I agree the orderbook is the cheapest way to fool people with pulling off bids/asks, I disagree with the fact that a rational investor shouldn't look at them.
There are at least two reasons why a rational investor should look at the orderbooks.

1) Game theoretic approach. If there are at least some "fools" who are getting fooled by the orderbooks, their actions make it smart to observe the orderbook.

2) The bids and asks are real - you can anytime make a sharp move and buy/sell into the asks/bids and then even the most fake wall becomes a real wall. Therefore holding fake orders is risky business as they get sometimes filled.

Bids can easily be removed and asks can easily be added. A rational trader shouldn't really look at the orderbook, because it's the #1 instrument to fool people.

The orderbook for ETH is just insane, 1500+ BTC on the bid side and volume over 7k. I bet a lot of people are on margin and when this thing goes south some will get burned hard. Bear in mind that this has been going on since 0.0025, so it's around x3 now which is in no way sustainable.

Good call at keeping your funds off polo. I've read nothing about socialized losses or something and in general altcoins are very illiquid, so this might end bed. However, poloniex has maintenance margin if I recall correctly, which might mitigate some of the risk.

Regarding maintenance margin:


I certainly agree on the bolded part. I think sitting under water isn't really bothering most people, since most were under water for a long time (remember the bearmarket from Aug until January). Furthermore, I think every XMR trader that wanted to ride the ETH wave would've sold off by now, so I expect the volatility to dwindle and less violent dumps. I sincerely hope that 0.0021 will hold though, otherwise we might see a retest of 0.0018 or even lower.

PS: It seems like every other coin on polo is basically down today, whereas ETH is going up.

I would not be worried even if we go lower than the lower bound of the trendline.
Especially if we stay above the previous lows, we still are able to maintain a bull market but then it is simply slower than our current channel suggests.
I do not mind these dumps, I hope there will be more like this.

ETH looks so strong that it is unlikely it will fail. There are simply too many btc in bids - however I doubt the buyers are the smartest people as they market buys 10-30 btc at one shoot driving the price up and making the lending market dry as Sahara and TrueCryptonaire is happy with almost 2 % daily interest payments. 

Agree that ETH is definitely taking a huge chunk of the XMR trade atm.

One look at the order book tells you that. All my funds are off Polo atm as I don't feel comfortable holding funds there atm.

Unfortunately this means that we'll probably continue to sell off, something that I dont think would have happened without ETH coming along.

This bit of price discovery will be interesting. Volume up was alot more than this volume down so there are plenty of people sitting under water, it all depends if they are going to protect their buys or cut losses. Time will tell.

The cryptocurrency demographic is multimodal.  The idealists and ideologues are seeking a social reorganization, a benefit to mankind.  The speculators and entrepreneurs are seeking a more personal advancement, sometimes without concern for the impact on others. Since I am both a wide-eyed idealist and a cynical, grizzled speculator, how could I not be here?

I enjoyed a bit of the ETH run from 250k to 430k, but I feel a certain sorrow for the losers in that trade, and a kind of guilt for even a marginal contribution to fueling the bubble.  That, and the obviously disproportionate risk at these levels, particularly when I am too busy to track the bubble in real-time, keeps me from participating in the later stages.  Afterwards, I may think "look at all the upside I missed!"  but then I will remind myself that I might have lost even more, quite easily, and that even if I did gain, it would have been a negative-sum win, and very ethically questionable.

I am just quietly sweeping up cheap XMR instead.  I think that will provide a more secure holding, with superior longer-term prospects.  In this way I am gaining from the ETH pump, even after I bailed on it.  And my gentle and tender conscience will avoid much bruising.

It will be interesting to see how deep the ETH crash goes, but I am also interested to see how much of the loot gets rolled into XMR.  Probably more than 1%.  Probably less than 10%.

Channel I am currently looking at:



Also, 21.3 is the 61.8% fib retracement level. I am not really worried until 21 breaks, although I would've prefered a bit less sharp retracement. Furthermore, I think once the ETH pump is over some of the traders will flock back to Monero, not entirely sure of this though but it seems like ETH is attracting all the volume and traders.

Indeed. A lot of stupid money involved... However, there is liquidity also worth over 1500 btc also. The lending fees are forcing some to liquiditate.
I hope there will not be too many bodies and this will calm down smoothly, however I doubt it.
I tried to speak a few words of reason there in the trollbox but nobody seems to care about it.
So much stupidity and insanity... I hope there will be liquidity enough when the big dump takes place though.

Serves them right. Hope they learn the lesson that Monero is a BFD

The crash is gonna hurt so bad.

I wouldn't dare short it but seriously, I've actually moved all funds of Polo for the time being as I'm scared for when this crashes. Nobody's offered margin trading on a pump n dump like this before and from the mood in the troll box everyone is leveraged to their eyeballs.

I don't think people borrowing money on Poloniex properly understand the fees involved. 
 
I also don't think those lending money properly appreciate that there is still risk.  If there is a flash crash and accounts need to be liquidated faster than available funds allow, it is my understanding that lenders can lose their money.

Good to hear/see I am wrong in regards to Cryptsy's choice of CN listing. It'll be nice to have some more liquidity and hopefully a larger userbase. Can't say I've visited the site in what seems like ages however.

I deposited some btc just to offering btc loans for hefty interest rates.
Looks like they are taking loans even for 2 % to trade ETH.
Now good time to make some btc risk free (or low risk) to lend some btc for ETH-traders and once the madness is over, roll the btc to XMR.

it fits monero(j) very well, besides I have never seen it before.

Not sure about ASCII but the unicode is 0271.

http://graphemica.com/%C9%B1

whats the asci code for mj?

like I know that alt+168 will give me ¿

Same with me, curved line at the end makes it look and sound like moneroj

The ɱ symbol is starting to grow on me.

Correct yes - was nothing to do with me.

Was also just testing out how the ɱ currency symbol looked when used in practice.  

Woops lol I read that as "my" 4000