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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1898. (Read 3314330 times)

legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
May 20, 2015, 07:32:44 AM
Looks like we could be about done pricing the KYC/AML news in.

People like to talk about weak and strong hands...  THIS is a time, if you look at the chart, when we were surely passing coins from weak to strong.  Volume went up and the price held in the long run.  It was bumpy, but buying and selling ended up washing out.  Those who bought are happy I bet.
hero member
Activity: 966
Merit: 1003
May 20, 2015, 02:33:35 AM
Smaller supply, same demand + idiots who shorted and are about to get margin squeezed:  

Do you expect the demand to stay the same, when a lot of the privacy conscious people who'd likely be interested in anon coins will now leave Poloniex because of its KYC policy?

On the other hand, perhaps the same is true for supply, botnets might switch to another coin as their deposit / withdrawal patterns should look suspicious to polo.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
May 20, 2015, 02:11:28 AM
The advent of short selling isn't really bullish or bearish in my opinion, but it has a net positive on the market.  It create liquidity, smooths out variance,  and thereby aids in price discovery.

Therefore after a time, the market becomes harder to manipulate and the price (supposedly) more accurately will reflect the actual sentiment of the market be it positive or negative.

On the other hand, rallies fueled by a short squeeze are fun to behold.

Short positions will make or break bears.  It will give our favorite naysayers a way to put their money where their mouth is.
 
 
I'm personally hoping that a bunch of tards took advantage of the chance to short their hated XMR, and as soon as this 48-hour period is up (which is soon) we are going to see the demand return to XMR in full force, except now there's less to go around. 
 
Smaller supply, same demand + idiots who shorted and are about to get margin squeezed: 
 
= should be interesting super-bull conditions.
legendary
Activity: 1190
Merit: 1000
May 20, 2015, 01:41:28 AM
How will short selling affect XMR in the short term?

People used to be able to go long but not short. Now people can do either. Meaning one would expect there to be more short selling now than before. So it's bearish. Right? Am I missing something? But people also didn't used to be able to go long on margin. So that should be bullish. Maybe it cancels out?
Short selling has been going on by Market Makers for a long time. When www.digitalbtc.com went public they had to disclose their business practices, and that included short selling (presuambly with the help of the exchanges).
The difference is now you will be able to do it as well.  Wink

Digitalbtc have partnerships with Cryptsy so they would have been short selling there for some time I'd say.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140610/pdf/42q3q07vlf5b3l.pdf

Last paragraph page 1

I assume that any Market Maker would be doing the same regardless of the exchange. They'd just say .."we will increase volume...but we need to be able to short sell coins you have."  Wink
legendary
Activity: 1190
Merit: 1000
May 20, 2015, 01:38:22 AM
Bought a nice amount of blackcoin with profits from monero Kiss
Thanks for the pump
Good for you and well picked
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
May 20, 2015, 01:36:40 AM
The advent of short selling isn't really bullish or bearish in my opinion, but it has a net positive on the market.  It create liquidity, smooths out variance,  and thereby aids in price discovery.

Therefore after a time, the market becomes harder to manipulate and the price (supposedly) more accurately will reflect the actual sentiment of the market be it positive or negative.

On the other hand, rallies fueled by a short squeeze are fun to behold.

Short positions will make or break bears.  It will give our favorite naysayers a way to put their money where their mouth is.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
May 20, 2015, 12:23:04 AM
I'd like to participate in this thread, but im not a fan of moderated threads.  Oh well.

Have a free bump on me though.

smooth "thick skin" dude rarely moderates this thread, even trolls have a field day around here.
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1217
May 20, 2015, 12:05:43 AM
How will short selling affect XMR in the short term?

People used to be able to go long but not short. Now people can do either. Meaning one would expect there to be more short selling now than before. So it's bearish. Right? Am I missing something? But people also didn't used to be able to go long on margin. So that should be bullish. Maybe it cancels out?
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
May 19, 2015, 11:39:58 PM
How will short selling affect XMR in the short term?
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1217
May 19, 2015, 11:00:10 PM
I'd like to participate in this thread, but im not a fan of moderated threads.  Oh well.

Have a free bump on me though.

It's probably one of the least moderated of all of the moderated threads. I've deleted maybe 10 posts total in a year, and explicitly explained the reason for every single deletion.

But to each his own. Welcome and goodbye.

Just go through and look at some of the overtly trollish posts that are still here Grin
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
May 19, 2015, 10:40:25 PM
I'd like to participate in this thread, but im not a fan of moderated threads.  Oh well.

Have a free bump on me though.

It's probably one of the least moderated of all of the moderated threads. I've deleted maybe 10 posts total in a year, and explicitly explained the reason for every single deletion.

But to each his own. Welcome and goodbye.
hero member
Activity: 674
Merit: 500
May 19, 2015, 09:49:11 PM
I'd like to participate in this thread, but im not a fan of moderated threads.  Oh well.

Have a free bump on me though.
sr. member
Activity: 770
Merit: 250
May 19, 2015, 09:46:39 PM
but they would know how much XMR John has, and where he lives. If the government comes and wants to confiscate it, because they believe john is doing some illegal trade or tax evasion or whatever, this is undeniable proof that john has at the minimum x XMR, and he would have to prove that he did not use them in an illegal way.

Is there no plausible deniability here? Couldn't someone just say that they bought them as an investment but their hard drive crashed, so they no longer have the keys? There are a number of different innocuous examples that might be argued. I'm sure there are better ones than my dog ate my private key.
Can't you do that with bitcoin as well? I just feel that it takes away a main advantage of monero over bitcoin. If monero doesn't work significantly better than bitcoin, obviously it won't go mainstream since bitcoin has much greater network effects.


The difference is that with Monero, it's much more difficult for them to be tracking you ahead of time. They may have some idea of what you're doing, but they won't have all the data on you that they would with Bitcoin, and they would more likely not be as easily able to argue that you did anything different than what you said you did.

But, to think about it, there'd be no grounds for the government to even come and try to confiscate anything, because they'd have no way of knowing where your moneroj went or came from, so them "suspecting" you of anything can't happen, as then they'd have to suspect everyone of the same thing. Thank god for privacy.

Such a thing as the government knocking at your door is only possible in coins with transparent blockchains because of the history/trail the coins leave behind.
hero member
Activity: 888
Merit: 500
May 19, 2015, 09:44:55 PM
Bought a nice amount of blackcoin with profits from monero Kiss
Thanks for the pump
legendary
Activity: 1762
Merit: 1011
May 19, 2015, 09:36:51 PM
but they would know how much XMR John has, and where he lives. If the government comes and wants to confiscate it, because they believe john is doing some illegal trade or tax evasion or whatever, this is undeniable proof that john has at the minimum x XMR, and he would have to prove that he did not use them in an illegal way.

Is there no plausible deniability here? Couldn't someone just say that they bought them as an investment but their hard drive crashed, so they no longer have the keys? There are a number of different innocuous examples that might be argued. I'm sure there are better ones than my dog ate my private key.
Can't you do that with bitcoin as well? I just feel that it takes away a main advantage of monero over bitcoin. If monero doesn't work significantly better than bitcoin, obviously it won't go mainstream since bitcoin has much greater network effects.


The difference is that with Monero, it's much more difficult for them to be tracking you ahead of time. They may have some idea of what you're doing, but they won't have all the data on you that they would with Bitcoin, and they would more likely not be as easily able to argue that you did anything different than what you said you did.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
May 19, 2015, 06:40:45 PM
Yes, please list and use and spread the word. Centralized exchanges, meh. Always been trouble.

Nothing against moneroclub - it's great to have - but, it's not exactly decentralized.

The exchange is. Moneroclub is just a method of meeting people. Use another method if you like. Better yet, use both/many.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
May 19, 2015, 06:34:12 PM
Yes, please list and use and spread the word. Centralized exchanges, meh. Always been trouble.

Nothing against moneroclub - it's great to have - but, it's not exactly decentralized.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
May 19, 2015, 06:26:58 PM
Left Polo. Seems shapeshift is my only option. Don't trust BTER. Bittrex is US based too so it's only a matter of time.
is there a local bitcoins website but for XMR?

https://www.moneroclub.com/offers/

Is a great site, but I'm not sure of the take up on there

Yes, please list and use and spread the word. Centralized exchanges, meh. Always been trouble.



hero member
Activity: 795
Merit: 514
May 19, 2015, 05:44:27 PM
There's a p2p exchange project in development that's supposed to work with Monero (but I can't remember what it's called... anyone?). Perhaps this is good opportunity for our community to get more involved in that endeavor.
sr. member
Activity: 329
Merit: 251
May 19, 2015, 05:19:55 PM
Left Polo. Seems shapeshift is my only option. Don't trust BTER. Bittrex is US based too so it's only a matter of time.
is there a local bitcoins website but for XMR?

https://www.moneroclub.com/offers/

Is a great site, but I'm not sure of the take up on there
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