Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2027. (Read 3313076 times)

last summer there were days with more than 1k volume if I remember correctly

This is one of the biggest days I can remember on Polo.
750+ BTC buy orders
620+ BTC Vol
+50 %

It bodes well for the recent support that we are getting both.

Congratulations to everyone who is still on the train.

I wave from behind, standing at the trainstation. 

They suffer crossed against bitcoin but they almost always do well in terms of fiat in these situations.

LOL. Also the wall pic is quite impressive. Lack of sellers is starting to hurt the rise...  

Nah he gets 0.5 btc per week per member from anyone that joins his private club.

He is also pulling some shenanigans behind the scenes. Put 0.1 btc in a whole package of alts and when one takes off he can take credit for it with his charts and shit. If he acts like he is the reason for this pump I call bullshit. If his little pimp pump group can control a $4 million + Market Cap I would be very surprised. Maybe someone with deep pockets could put in a wall to stomp him into the dirt.

LOL, this guy is a nobody. Look at the volume for the time he made that trade and tell me he makes big moves... He made 1btc at the most.

And there you have it: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.10724629

Apparently he settled for 114% only.

Although I'm pretty sure he just buys 1 coin of every coin so he can later post a pic of the trade to impress noobs to get them join his group.

Well hopefully we have found a new floor above the December high that was so important to break. I think this image tells the story of the strength of XMR right now.

Well I made a short term trading strategy that imo has a good EV and does not presume that you trust in XMR:

- Buy at 230k
- Put a stop loss at 165k, which is below the new, supposed, floor at 180-200k (max loss 28%)
- Sell only if the speculators join in and take it to 600k+, which obviously is too fast for now (gain minimum 200%)
- Otherwise, wait for the price to find a new level
- In 3 weeks, we are either at 200ish, or 300-400ish, in both cases sell

EV calculation:

1 Stop-loss (P=0.3) = -28%
2 Stop-profit (P=0.1) = +200%
3 Stable at 200 (P=0.3) = -13%
4 Stable at 350 (P=0.3) = +52%
=========================
EV = 23% gain in 3 weeks, with a maximum loss of -28%.

they have an api which (mostly) works fine.
if you need help to get the information you need i can assist you (send me a pm)

I tend to concur with your analysis and I will be very surprised if we do not see a correction to 002 area. 

How much effect do you think the DASH fiasco yesterday had on our nice appreciation?

If anyone knows how to easily extract orders from poloinex let me know.  Even better if its dynamic, using their iinterface doesnt work very well for me all the time.

It's happening.

This is a beautiful example of the XMR price probability distribution. In all likelihood, it goes slightly down. But if it goes up, as it is doing now, there is no telling really how high it could go. Other coins have shown up to 1000x increases in price in a few weeks. XMR's history shows surges in 2x-10x range.

This is only the 16th day after the Official Announcement for the Price Going Up, though. The rise has been gradual, but still so fast that it is possible that we will peak soon and crash back down. The good news is that there is a host of buyers both in the bid book and in the sidelines that will most likely consider the previous resistance in 180k-200k as a floor level now. (If not, good riddance!)

This realization gives the price the strength to go higher from those of the core community who were caught short of their comfort position, and an unknown number of new investors with their fat checkbooks is seemingly entering in as well. They don't respect our sacred petty price levels but think in terms of fiat and consider anything less than ATH ($5, now: $0.60) cheap. They represent a short term joker that might cause the altcoiner speculative buying frenzy. The speculators I don't believe will join in unless we cross 300-400k, but if they do, they can affect the price a lot, and do it fast.

A helpful fact is to think of the marketcap. It's still only $4 million, which is extremely small.

On the supply side, most of the supply is owned by the core community, and they are mostly not selling, until in 300-400k some might sell a little. Many in the core community were actually short of their position, and will need to consider buying in a "stop-loss" fashion.

It is likely that miners have built up some positions now as the price has been rising. They might be tempted to sell at around 200k and if dumps happen, my guess is that they are from the miners. Whether this miner selling is happily absorbed or not, or if it scares the bid walls away as soon as they came, determines if our next resting area is around 180-200k or above 300k. For historical reasons, in between is not so likely.

The new investors are in general not selling. An old money guy entering into XMR at this stage is not after a quick few bucks.

The speculators of course sell when they believe it's the time. But first they need to buy and my analysis is that XMR had extremely few speculative longs when the uptrend started, and still does not have them, since even the few that entered in the first days of the uptrend, have mostly sold their position for quick gains around 190k a few days ago.

For any longer term, Monero is a strong buy when done in moderation. Others are better in short-term forecasts.

wow 45% in 24 hours. Why didn't I buy more 20 cent coins?

This strategy might burn you really hard..

Just head over to the DRK thred and see for yourself. Price is being held up artficially by Otoh.

We have now started exponential bubble phase which is not sustainable and nobody knows how long or how far we go. All I can say, sell into strength, ussually this moves retrace hard and people panick and lose. Then buy back

Is there really a DRK mess? DRK's retracement looks normal. It's had a big run. I don't think its decline will be notable unless it retraces 100% to .006x or below.

Of course, if DRK goes into terminal decline and XMR were to absorb DRK's 100k USD daily trade volume, then XMR would have the next highest liquidity after LTC. XMR's emission as a percentage of daily trade volume would become very small.

I doubt that the rise today was actually caused by darkcoiners abandoning ship for XMR, but if XMR becomes more visible during DRK's decline, then that can become the narrative. And once it's the narrative, it will become reality.

Yes. This is very true; however the whole DRK mess can change things. My take is that DRK/XBT will be have a bigger impact on XMR/XBT than XBT/USD.