Altcoins tend to suffer in the beginning of bitcoin's bull runs. You can see Litecoin (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ltcbtc) , Peercoin (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ppcbtc), and (Namecoin (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/nmcbtc) all crashing hard in October 2013. Litecoin also suffered in May 2014 as bitcoin began its bull run to 680. XMR/DRK did well at that time, but only because anonymous coins were new and hot. Other alts suffered.
So if bitcoin breaks 300 with strength today or in the next few days, then we should prepare for some pain.
Yes. This is very true; however the whole DRK mess can change things. My take is that DRK/XBT will be have a bigger impact on XMR/XBT than XBT/USD.
Is there really a DRK mess? DRK's retracement looks normal. It's had a big run. I don't think its decline will be notable unless it retraces 100% to .006x or below.
Of course, if DRK goes into terminal decline and XMR were to absorb DRK's 100k USD daily trade volume, then XMR would have the next highest liquidity after LTC. XMR's emission as a percentage of daily trade volume would become very small.
I doubt that the rise today was actually caused by darkcoiners abandoning ship for XMR, but if XMR becomes more visible during DRK's decline, then that can become the narrative. And once it's the narrative, it will become reality.