Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2156. (Read 3313070 times)

I don't want to be alarmist but http://moneropool.com/ is reaching 50% of the hashrate...

This is exactly what I do.

I've been extremely busy, but I always find time to buy more Moneros here and there(Almost everyday), even more so if Bitcoin is looking especially bearish.

Monero has still a lot of volatility and it is a sign of immature coin.
Swedish Krona has indeed a lot of volatility compared with USD/eur for instance - still sudden -10 % red candles you see very seldon unless you do not take a longer perspective.

I definetely will be buyer if the fiat that I sent today in the morning clears tomorrow and the price is still low - do not get me wrong.
I try to buy low and try to sell later higher (although I am too small fish to be able to support the markets with market making - being a market maker you need a significiant amount both currencies).

Especially if this is FUD that has been preached against XMR this volatility shouldn't even take place or it should have corrected fast. Even bitcoin corrects flash crashes relatively quick (even in matter of minutes/hours).
Still, bitcoin has way too much volatility for currency.

Please let's not compare Monero with currencies like Swedish Krona or Polish whatever.
Let's not compare it to other currencies but make it better.  

Focus should not be on what's already good but on what can be improved. Sorry Risto, I do not mean to be harsh. I respect you in many ways, but I think you should not focus on comparisons but improvements.
Of course when you sell a product you compare for the customer but for me you do not need to sell Monero - I am in already and considering buying more if the price is right when my fiat clears at bitstamp probably by tomorrow evening.

Depends how high their understanding is. I was a little bit afraid of Bitcoin today, and bought XMR and felt better.

Surely the majority is not there yet. Or will not be. Only 0.01% of the world actively uses any crypto.

For once you get out of fiat, there's no going back.

yeah uh.  don't they just go back to fiat when scared?  Why go to something more volatile and likely to die than bitcoin when you are scared of bitcoin?

Bitcion goes down - XMR goes down more 

I don't want to be harsh, but..


A currency has zero volatility because things are priced on it. When Finland had FIM as currency, its value often changed 10% vs. other currencies yet prices stayed the same. Now with EUR, the annual change vs. USD can easily be over 10%. Nobody cares about those and smugly thinks that his currency is stable. It's only a matter of viewpoint.


False.


Truly big money makes their moves on political grounds. Bitcoin is probably unacceptable to most.


I think Monero has nearly enough market making. I needed to probe the level of panic by selling "dump" a few coins at 360->350 some time ago. The gap was quickly closed and I now have no chance to buy them back except at a hefty loss. This is an example of marketmaking in action.


The issue presented was legitimate, so the market is now pricing the risk in which probability it's also true 


Only a problem as long as prices are presented in something else, and not even then. See several countries with pricing in hard currency yet payment in the country's "shitcoin" (example: Poland).


Monero vs. Bitcoin have liquid markets. If/When people at large start to feel fear for their BTC and decide that Monero is the answer, they can all go through this funnel. I estimated that once the stampede starts, in 6 weeks the coins change places marketcapwise, in a quite epic episode of forward escape.


The steadily rising value is only possible for some fairly low growth rates. If the growth factor is 100% or more per annum (or even less but let's keep this as an example), the growth becomes turbulent, with successive surges and implosions, as can be seen from BTC. You cannot do anything about it.

My friend, I am happy with the knowledge that we are unlikely to learn the answer to those questions.
This is one of the merits of Bitcoin, right?

If you look at the Forbes billionaire list, there are a lot of billionaires NOT on that list because they have older money.  There are some though who have famously supported it.  If you took some time, you could probably spot a few more.

Considering that the entire value of all bitcoin is less than $6 Billion USD, there are quite possibly folks on this list that have more bitcoin than they do, but I imagine they have a fair bit more than most folks reading this.

Your point is well taken, that billionaires tend to own companies, and countries, more than currencies.  They are wealthy because they own the productive output of other people.

May I suggest........................

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/monero-community-hall-of-fame-700400

How many bitcoins the billionaires own on average? Which part of their entire wealth is in bitcoin?

Richard Branson.

There are others but you wanted one.

Michael Dell.
OK Couldn't resist adding him, just because he is a good bit richer, and later to the bitcoin owners club who have had their companies start accepting the stuff.

For me even bitcoin-drops are a big deal and for the most people who cannot take bitcoin this volatility is something that kills their interest on bitcoin.
The arguments that I hear against bitcoins are usually as follows:
-The price is already too high, I wish I would get in earlier, now it is too late for me.
- The CEO of Bitcoin is in jail and bitcoin is in bankcrupt (I know, this is FUD but peole in Finland associate bitcoin to Gox due to the FUD that was presented in our media - the reporters made harm for bitcoin adoption. I have heard this argument from several non-bitcoiners)
- Too much volatility for a currency

Those are the major setbacks in bitcoin which I hear from ordinary people from grass root level. Bitcoin community consists mainly of gamblers.
If you want to attract truly big money, it cannot be a gamblers coin which value you cannot predict.

I think these issues should be fixed in Monero. Therefore we need more successful and good professional traders to make markets.
Monero is still down like 10-15 % from yesterday's price, and when the coin is mature this type of things cannot happen.

I acknowledge that crabcoins have huge volatility but if we want to build something high quality, it should not have sudden unpredictable drops. I understand that now it is very infant stage and this volatility is more acceptable, but when you want the adoption of conservative money from elderly people it cannot have such volatility - the elderly ones cannot take it.

I also read from Polo trollbox somebody stating that it will take a long time for Monero to be at the same level than btc.
I have to disagree with him. How long it will take is all up to our community how long we want to postpone the development.
Monero has the advantage of second comer and I see it very clearly when I am talking with people about Monero vs. I am talking about bitcoin.

If we can fix all the shortcomings of bitcoin, I do not see any reason why Monero shouldn't replace bitcoin at some time frame.


Ideally, coin value should rise steadily. Not too fast, but not drop neither. Perhaps long term average growth should be around 2-5 % pa. Earlier stage higher as the adoption rate is lower but as the adoption gets more wider, the rate should drop around the average rise in real economy.

So there is no need to worry.

If you want to talk about altcoins, 99% drops and 2000% rises are perfectly normal as well.

It's obvious you haven't been involved in many alts if this price drop is a big deal.

10% rise or drop is normal for altcoins.

That's a reasonable analysis.  I took the discount and added to my position.

I see it as follows: the decline was 10% and half of it could be attributed to the usual beta-leverage of alts diving if BTCUSD takes a hit (which it did the same day). So the effect of this rumor on price was 5%.

Now the market is stabilized and it is still 5%+5% lower. So the market is attributing only 5% chance to the scenario that it is true. If you believe it is FUD, you can get a 5% discount. Otherwise you should sell.

Of course only those who have XMR can sell. Others need to buy my PUT options to take advantage of this. They were priced very attractively before this event, so if there was any profit motive in this, it's likely someone would have bought them, at least via sockpuppets. (Here it does not matter if it is true or FUD, the price dip was a fact that already happened.) This is one of the strongest circumstatial evidence imo that the whole debacle was more of an accident than anything else.

if he didnt provide facts then it's probably bs, that's the most likely scenario at least, ofc there's possibility that he was so kind that he didnt exploited it himself and didnt wanted to tell what it is so that no one else can exploit it but hey camoon, who believes that?

The dumps were absorbed good enough in my opinion. The problem is that right now we have someone (credible enough for me) who is telling that there is some kind of  major problem with the blockchain. But he hasnt give enough explanations. So there is great uncertainty right now and it will stay for a while unless we know more about that or we conclude it was bullshit...

10 % decline in a short term is too much when you consider it should be a store of value.
Monero needs more traders to absorb the dumps, but on the other hand, feed the buyers in pumps.