Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2156. (Read 3312350 times)

10% rise or drop is normal for altcoins.

That's a reasonable analysis.  I took the discount and added to my position.

I see it as follows: the decline was 10% and half of it could be attributed to the usual beta-leverage of alts diving if BTCUSD takes a hit (which it did the same day). So the effect of this rumor on price was 5%.

Now the market is stabilized and it is still 5%+5% lower. So the market is attributing only 5% chance to the scenario that it is true. If you believe it is FUD, you can get a 5% discount. Otherwise you should sell.

Of course only those who have XMR can sell. Others need to buy my PUT options to take advantage of this. They were priced very attractively before this event, so if there was any profit motive in this, it's likely someone would have bought them, at least via sockpuppets. (Here it does not matter if it is true or FUD, the price dip was a fact that already happened.) This is one of the strongest circumstatial evidence imo that the whole debacle was more of an accident than anything else.

if he didnt provide facts then it's probably bs, that's the most likely scenario at least, ofc there's possibility that he was so kind that he didnt exploited it himself and didnt wanted to tell what it is so that no one else can exploit it but hey camoon, who believes that?

The dumps were absorbed good enough in my opinion. The problem is that right now we have someone (credible enough for me) who is telling that there is some kind of  major problem with the blockchain. But he hasnt give enough explanations. So there is great uncertainty right now and it will stay for a while unless we know more about that or we conclude it was bullshit...

10 % decline in a short term is too much when you consider it should be a store of value.
Monero needs more traders to absorb the dumps, but on the other hand, feed the buyers in pumps.

im proud how well price reacted to those big dumps, monero gets stronger this way because if one entity dumps 20-30k and there's a lot small bids to take the hit, then centralization lowers, meaning that market changes to more mature direction, market becomes more predictable this way also, because normal market psychology starts to mean more

EDIT. im proud now, but that can change ofc if we go lower

We need to define terms:
Bagholder= a person who trust in coin's value staying/increasing in the future.
There is no reason for an investor to buy a coin - and thus become a bagholder - an investor is buying the coin because he wants the price constantly increase. Investor will dump the coin if it increases too fast (bubblish).

Thus the coin price should be in steady but slow bull market and the market makers should make sure even a large dumpster is not able to change much the price (like yesterday).

Please, let's not make another bitcoin but better than bitcoin.
I understand that bitcoin has made you a lot of money, but there are also many things that could be done better in bitcoinworld. One of them is the huge volatility. It means, the entrepreneurs and other risk takers (gamblers) will adopt bitcoin but not big money.
Tell me one billionaire who owns bitcoin - for them it is too volatile. If you are a billionaire and want a money, you cannot take anything so unstable that you are unable to predict the price tomorrow.

Therefore, we have two ways to solve the issue of volatility: 1) more traders making the markets for buyers and sellers 2) slower emission which frees some cash for receiving coins these dumpsters.

Please, when developing the economy, let's adopt the good things from bitcoin and fix the shortcomings of it. Then bitcoin could be replaced by monero and monero can achieve the trust of big money.

Bitcoin community is not growing at least in a significiant level anymore. There are reasons why some people do not adopt bitcoin and it is important to listen to them and make those people to use monero.

yep, bids are recovering fast, maybe those big dumpers need to buy back in soon =D

Wrote a post on this topic, but moved it to the main thread, good point, smooth.

please see: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8874136

Monero dont need any bagholders.
It just need to be fully ready, and at that time still relatively cheap.
Bag holders can go hld other coins. there are 1500 of them.

I don't entirely think it is quite that simple. You can decide to buy because of great advantages but despite problems with the emission schedule. You don't really get to choose between every possible variation.

The "social contract" emissions curve argument is a precedent that comes from Bitcoin and I don't really think it has done Bitcoin any favors. For example, the commitment to the insane notion of rewards going away and mining supported by transaction fees despite no cogent argument about how this is going to work has become something akin to a slow suicide pact. There may be other problems too (my suspicion is that Bitcoin's is too fast). Contracts, including social contracts, can and should be renegotiated when new information presents and conditions change.

I totally and completely reject the "cut emissions because we want less dumping" suggestion though. That is not a valid or useful reason to renegotiate a social contract.

Let's wrap this up though, unless someone can tie it directly in with speculation. Any further discussion should be on the main thread.

I agree

The good thing with an emission schedule is that you know it in advance. You decide to buy it or not, but you don't change it just like that. It's part of the social contract supporting the coin.
Changing such fundamental stuff on the way are good for other crappy alts. This is often (always) made out of greed rather than for building a functional economy. Monero is worth more than these arrangements.

If we grow organically, we won't have bagholders.

we are going nowhere but down,
sell xmr now or you will regret it later!!!!

Only if they are short term focused and impatient. Not much we can do about that, if the goal is long term sucess. They're just a mismatch.

Maybe the reason most pump-and-dump alts never amount to much of anything is too much participation from short-term-focused speculators. I don't see much use for them.

A slow rise, probably 5-20% a year is fine with me. But the coin has to be useful.

I disagree.
Long lasting low price will make the bagholders leaving from the coin.
It is like inflation vs. deflation debate.
Inflation is good for the economy but deflation is good for a person who likes to save money.
If you have slight, but constant increase in the coin exchange rate, it will attract buyers and buyers feel save to buy the coin now instead waiting for tomorrow for lower rate.

I recall more marketmakers such as Aminorex who have financial ability to buy sometimes even those dumps and on the other hand, sell when there is a buyer in the market.
After this dump I really understand the value of marketmakers.

Also, bitcoin's major failure in terms of financials is its huge volatility. This volatility prevents the big money entering into bitcoin.
A billionaire doesn't trust in a currency which can be tomorrow anything - up 10 % or down 10 %. Money should store value both short and long term.
If I am a billionaire and I have negotiated a business deal, I would prefer to eliminate this type of uncertainity.

reason why is as it is now, is so coins will stay at low price fro longer period of time so as many people can get it and community grow naturally. Coin is getting developed slow, so if 70% would be mined in just few months, only few people would got them and that would bring much different future as Monero currently have. 

emission schedule is perfect as it is.

and it's gone...

edit: back above 3.5

This is a critical support level. Could be the bottom