2019 is the year. Emissions falls silly low.
I expect explosions
Like 1000 USD or higher? I still think 1000 is possible in 2018
I bought monero because I liked monero. Unfortunately it refuses to do anything other than follow bitcoin around everywhere it goes like some sort of lost puppy. It's stupid and annoying but it is what it is. So anyway, the point being, it looks like its going to depend a lot on what bitcoin does. It might outperform bitcoin. We can hope it does of course. There are good reasons to expect that it will. But it doesn't look like its going to climb in value unless bitcoin does also. So you want to figure out how well monero is going to do in 2018? First figure out what you think bitcoin is going to do.
I almost wish bitcoin would die, even though the price of everything in the sector would crash, just so that everything could break free and we could have a dynamic and competitive market with internal relative price discovery. You know, so that the good projects could actually be separated from the bad. So that the crypto sector could improve based on bad projects dying and good ones absorbing their capital. Instead we have an entire sector that moves togather in one direction or the other irrespective of whether the individual projects are actually garbage.
Frustrating.
Hmm.....
I understand, but Bitcoin created the entire CC sector, and cut the path through the forest that Monero and other currencies will tarmac and make solid.
Maybe crypto is like PMs where gold is still king after thousands of years. Or maybe its more likely is that the model is more like the internet's development with a 'dotcom boom' which few (if any) of the big early stars survived.
There is no doubt the market will have innovation, and new names will proliferate - equally most coins must die, since the entire market is driven by speculation about which tech will actually survive and be useful. Time will tell of course and we will look back and laugh remembering the stars that shot high in our skies and then burned out.
Surely before too long, it will be impossibly expensive to launch new products into this crowded space when it is not feasible that more than a few can really survive. There will soon probably be a 'big coin' index, and a 'minor wannabe' market for penny stock type coins. Coinmarketcap is already a joke.
Bitcoin's main appeal was that it allows the movement of value peer to peer via the net without interference. This is what crypto as a whole is about. Blockchain, the decentralised ledger is a huge innovation in accounting - privacy is an important feature too - people thought Bitcoin had this early on, but of course it does not.
Crypto potentially bypasses traditional banks, grants more user control and allows a vision of money being 'smart' too. Leaders in sectors should survive but technology competition will mean coins will try to adapt and serve as many use cases as they reasonably can.
Smart contracts will survive and evolve through blockchain tech adoption. Micropayments are necessary, as are irreversible and traceable large ones. Private ones will be useful too. Will all these things and more be available in every coin? I doubt it, as there are not ways to be all things to all men without balancing functions in the code and way coins work. Will POS survive, will traditional blockchains become less popular? Maybe. Will all coins be private? No.
Near term - Bitcoin should and I hope, will survive. Its robustness (anti-fragility) is legend and so it is and will be for some time the standard bearer for all crypto. A failure in Bitcoin will set all crypto back a long way. Medium term, as coins die and new ones are less welcome, there will be great consolidation into a few existing coins and a few new ones to come. No one will take the risk on new coins easily once most tedn to wither and die.
Monero has a lead for being perceived as honest and unflashy. And it has a use-case. As long as the use case is required it will be hard for other coins to take over its place. Optional privacy may be added to other coins, but Monero's
privacy by default is the only way, so it has a good chance of being one of the 'few' to make it.