As someone who prefers to take the long term view I find the following charts relevant. https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#btc-percentage. What the charts illustrate is the significant drop in the percentage of the total market cap of crypto currencies that is accounted for by Bitcoin from over 96% in November 2013 to 61% as of the time of this post. It has recently actually fallen below 60%. A different way to look at this is the sharp increase in the combined market capitalization of alt coins from ~1.5 billion USD a year ago to over 15 billion USD today. This is an increase of ~1000%. Bitcoin by comparison has had an increase from ~7 billion USD a year ago to ~23.5 billion USD today for an increase of ~240%. What we have here is crypto currency rally that is driven primarily by alt coins and not Bitcoin. This is in sharp contrast to previous crypto currency rallies where the primary driving force was Bitcoin. My take is that the market is getting tired of waiting for Bitcoin to sort out its blocksize scaling issues, assuming they even have a solution, and is looking for alternatives.
How does Monero compare to all of the above. During the last year Monero say an increase in market capitalization of from ~11 million USD to currently ~330 million USD for an increase of ~2900%. My take is what we are seeing here with Monero is a market consolidation after a sharp increase, in an otherwisie strong bull market in alt coins. Monero has underperformed many other alt coins in the first part of 2017; however this is understandable when one considers Monero's stellar performance in 2016.
As for where is Monero likely to trade in the next few months I must point out that I have in the past being wrong on multiple occasions such as buying between ~0.0011 - ~0.0050 XBT in 2014 only to watch it fall to ~0.0009 XBT in December 2014 and also in 2015 buying at around ~0.0024 XBT only to again watch Monero fall to below 0.0010 XBT in December 2015.
How does Monero compare to all of the above. During the last year Monero say an increase in market capitalization of from ~11 million USD to currently ~330 million USD for an increase of ~2900%. My take is what we are seeing here with Monero is a market consolidation after a sharp increase, in an otherwisie strong bull market in alt coins. Monero has underperformed many other alt coins in the first part of 2017; however this is understandable when one considers Monero's stellar performance in 2016.
As for where is Monero likely to trade in the next few months I must point out that I have in the past being wrong on multiple occasions such as buying between ~0.0011 - ~0.0050 XBT in 2014 only to watch it fall to ~0.0009 XBT in December 2014 and also in 2015 buying at around ~0.0024 XBT only to again watch Monero fall to below 0.0010 XBT in December 2015.
I think this is solid analysis. I said something similar several weeks ago but am too lazy to find it now. Still the one frustrating thing is seeing inferior projects leapfrog Monero and hold their accumulated value. I would like to see sense return to the market soon in that regard.
