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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 907. (Read 3314350 times)

hero member
Activity: 608
Merit: 509
December 16, 2016, 12:02:53 PM
Guys, off-topic here but I'm finally getting around to actually putting 5 XMR on the very cool physical Monero coin that Smoothie gave out awhile back.

Instructions say to "convert hexadecimal spend_key to base64" to print on paper and then embed on-coin, under the hologram... but first off, where do I find a particular Monero address hex "spend_key", and secondly: what software or website is recommended to convert to base64 (and TEST conversion back too)?

I've googled around a bit but didn't find what's needed: I'm surely missing something simple 'cuz other people would've asked about this earlier LOL

TIA for any help Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 478
Merit: 250
December 16, 2016, 09:24:07 AM
I tend to find Risto's targets shaded just a bit pessimistic, but my ears always perk up when I see his name because he has snapped  me out of a daze more than once. I want to catch what Risto is thinking, but definitely don't throw your wad off a cliff based on any one person's guess. If you do it's your own fault unfortunately.
pa
hero member
Activity: 528
Merit: 501
December 16, 2016, 08:55:22 AM
Listen to those you think wise and feel you can rust

A most oxidizing recommendation, and one well worth following, I say without irony.


Good advice, well worth filing away somewhere.

Oops - I guess that was deserving of corrosive comment

We all are guilty of posting with a tin ear on occasion.
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748
December 16, 2016, 06:46:46 AM
Listen to those you think wise and feel you can rust

A most oxidizing recommendation, and one well worth following, I say without irony.


Good advice, well worth filing away somewhere.

Oops - I guess that was deserving of corrosive comment
legendary
Activity: 2702
Merit: 2053
Free spirit
December 16, 2016, 06:24:16 AM
Listen to those you think wise and feel you can rust

A most oxidizing recommendation, and one well worth following, I say without irony.


Good advice, well worth filing away somewhere.
hero member
Activity: 722
Merit: 500
December 16, 2016, 05:55:48 AM
Quote from: Jesse Livermore
A man must believe in himself and his judgement if he expects to make a living at this game. That is why I don’t believe in tips.
sr. member
Activity: 445
Merit: 255
December 16, 2016, 04:56:40 AM
I think the situation is good.
Looking back at when I followed your advices or sayings, I would say you have a far better "backtesting" on long term choices than short term trading... (best decision I take reading your posts and others during 2014 and later: invest in monero long term, worst one : selling a significant part when you predicted capitulation a few weeks ago).

I do believe I warned against this and even opened a long.

I remember it and felt a similar sentiment, but Risto was out of sorts - he was not measured at all, did not give the odds as he usually would.  It was (and still is) 'possible' but even then I felt it was at best a 70/30 against a dip that low.

Historically (yes, I know it's as good as a horoscope), XMR has dipped to lows in December, broken out in Feb, had an August high and then slid down.

It has also normally reacted inversely a disproportionately to BTC price moves.  What seems to be happening is the start of a less fixed inverse relationship and Monero reacting more to events in its own sphere, which makes sense as it matures.  

I do think the GUI will be positive and Ring CT implementation, if it goes smoothly, will show we have a great dev team.   Both ETH and ZEC have blown it, albeit in different ways.  XMR just steadily chugs on and if we stay above 0.01 for the rest of this month, it is hard to see us returning significantly below it again, bar 'black swan' or a BTC run of 2013 proportions.

I was there in 2015 with the dramatic lows of XMR: I was afraid of similar scenario with the  rising BTC trend and the decrease of XMR, I was hesitating selling a part of my 1000 xmr: maybe I would have sold even without rpietela alarming post...

sr. member
Activity: 445
Merit: 255
December 16, 2016, 04:28:35 AM
I think the situation is good.
Looking back at when I followed your advices or sayings, I would say you have a far better "backtesting" on long term choices than short term trading... (best decision I take reading your posts and others during 2014 and later: invest in monero long term, worst one : selling a significant part when you predicted capitulation a few weeks ago).

Well the good news is you were selling it to him and he knows what to do with it better.  Grin
I sold only a few hundreds (on the other hand I have only around 1000: now around 800). I don't think he is a good day trader according to its post history : good at fudamentals but day trading is a different story.
I have made my previous post to inform new comers to be cautious with this kind of advice: so they don't do the same mistakes as me
legendary
Activity: 1276
Merit: 1001
December 16, 2016, 04:24:42 AM
Listen to those you think wise and feel you can rust

A most oxidizing recommendation, and one well worth following, I say without irony.
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748
December 16, 2016, 04:12:25 AM
I think the situation is good.
Looking back at when I followed your advices or sayings, I would say you have a far better "backtesting" on long term choices than short term trading... (best decision I take reading your posts and others during 2014 and later: invest in monero long term, worst one : selling a significant part when you predicted capitulation a few weeks ago).

I do believe I warned against this and even opened a long.

I remember it and felt a similar sentiment, but Risto was out of sorts - he was not measured at all, did not give the odds as he usually would.  It was (and still is) 'possible' but even then I felt it was at best a 70/30 against a dip that low.

Historically (yes, I know it's as good as a horoscope), XMR has dipped to lows in December, broken out in Feb, had an August high and then slid down.

It has also normally reacted inversely a disproportionately to BTC price moves.  What seems to be happening is the start of a less fixed inverse relationship and Monero reacting more to events in its own sphere, which makes sense as it matures. 

I do think the GUI will be positive and Ring CT implementation, if it goes smoothly, will show we have a great dev team.   Both ETH and ZEC have blown it, albeit in different ways.  XMR just steadily chugs on and if we stay above 0.01 for the rest of this month, it is hard to see us returning significantly below it again, bar 'black swan' or a BTC run of 2013 proportions.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
December 16, 2016, 03:58:11 AM
...
Do you have a better explanation that accounts for the observable fact heavily funded bitcoin companies failed to produce the kinds of spectacular results Silicon Valley expects, even as the value of bitcoin itself continues to climb?  Speculating about motivations and fretting about EVIL BLOCKSTREAMCORE doesn't count; your personal status as disgruntled isn't an argument that leads to a falsifiable (ie useful) hypothesis.
...

Very simple. If the maximum transactions per second is capped to somewhere between 2 tps and 7 tps this places a limit on the growth of a Bitcoin company, say for example a payment processor, no matter how much venture capital the company may raise.

Your explanation is not "very simple" as it needlessly multiplies the entities responsible for Bitcoin's secular bull market, despite a more parsimonious theory (fat protocol) being available.

TPS doesn't limit growth of Bitcoin companies unless they are doing it wrong (ie trying to use the blockchain as a replacement for low-latency high-volume centralized services like Visa).

There are presently limits to Bitcoin's TSP, but there is no limit to how valuable those 2-7 tx are.  Hence Bitcoin's destiny to become high powered super money used for settlement between institutions which issue their own tokens backed by BTC.

Yes rising fee market pressure excludes marginal cases like SatoshiDice.  Oh well; that's called creative destruction.

Honey Badger and I really couldn't care less what "virtually every Bitcoin company is pushing for."  Fuck those free riding assholes and (your logical fallacy of) argumentum ad populum as well.

I'm not going to weep for past use cases (and resultant business models) which are no longer viable (or profitable).

The dream of stuffing every Starbucks and Wal-Mart purchase on the Holy Ledger is dead.

That yet-another-retail-payment-rail vision has been thoroughly rubbished, starting here...
Quote

...and ending with the definitive repudiation here.

Quote
There’s a permeating sense of entitlement amongst certain Bitcoin entrepreneurs that leads them to try to make the Bitcoin network liable for the profitability of their business models.

Many companies are built on the premise that they can provide competitive financial services by piggybacking off the most open and secure blockchain available. Unfortunately, they often ignore the tradeoffs they chose to make when adopting this solution and too often display an arrogance that is unbecoming from people who owe their entire business to a protocol largely supported by others.

Traditional payment service businesses have stitched themselves on top of Bitcoin in an attempt to externalize their operation costs to the network, irrespective of the fact that the latter is a public good provided by voluntary participants. This dynamic is more commonly known as the free-loader problem


By using their influence to promote design changes that increase the cost of validating nodes through coercion, they are effectively attempting to tax peers in order to continue subsidizing their business models.

If users give up on their ability to coordinate through a fixed block size limit, they invite transaction providers to further increase the load externalized to the network until diversity is lost and validating services become specialized and prohibitive.

For the many reasons explained above, it should be clear to everyone that the current block size limit is hardly artificial. It is, rather, a conscious, voluntary, decision by network participants everywhere to preserve the trust minimization feature of Bitcoin.
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748
December 16, 2016, 03:50:58 AM
I think the situation is good.

Good to see you back Risto - I hope things are improving in your world and I am sure I am not the only one looking forward to your further thoughts.

I like your posts, kurious, but I don't get the love for Mr Reptilia (from you and many others.) It affects the impressionable minds of newbies (cough cough me) into thinking this guy is some amazing oracle. I am guilty of believing his earlier predictions and selling a portion of my coins because I surmised he would know better than me (totally my fault, I know.)

Thank you for your compliment.  To explain, Risto was a cheerleader for XMR way back and I was trying to buy it OTC even before it was on Polo because of him as well as Aminorex, who are both intelligent and sagacious investors.

At times he can be wrong, yes - and he has been. Recently calling the 0.006 - 0.004 crash seems one of those calls, but those who know a little about what was going on in his life will probably forgive that one.

As others here have said and he and Aminorex will always admit - at best their calls are an educated guess.  All they have for all their savvy is 'an edge' and on average it will do better than most, but no one is infallible.

Listen to those you think wise and feel you can rust - but always make your own choices in order to learn from your own mistakes.
sr. member
Activity: 522
Merit: 266
December 15, 2016, 09:32:44 PM
...
Do you have a better explanation that accounts for the observable fact heavily funded bitcoin companies failed to produce the kinds of spectacular results Silicon Valley expects, even as the value of bitcoin itself continues to climb?  Speculating about motivations and fretting about EVIL BLOCKSTREAMCORE doesn't count; your personal status as disgruntled isn't an argument that leads to a falsifiable (ie useful) hypothesis.
...

Very simple. If the maximum transactions per second is capped to somewhere between 2 tps and 7 tps this places a limit on the growth of a Bitcoin company, say for example a payment processor, no matter how much venture capital the company may raise. This explains, the weak performance of existing Bitcoin companies, the fall in new venture capital for Bitcoin companies and Bitcoin companies seeking greener pastures outside of Bitcoin.

Take for example Walmart. Walmart is currently at war with VISA over merchant fees. This is manifested in both litigation in the United States and trials in Canada where Walmart is testing not accepting VISA in certain stores. A Bitcoin payment processor could make a very good case on how they can process retail transactions for Walmart using Bitcoin for a fraction of what VISA charges. The trouble is that if such a Bitcoin payment processor were to succeed they would not be able to deliver since if only a small fraction of Walmart's sales were to be made using BItcoin the Bitcoin network would not be able to handle it. Furthermore we are not talking cups of coffee here, The typical Walmart retail sale is way more than that. There is a reason why virtually every Bitcoin company is pushing for an increase in the Bitcoin blocksize.

If it were as simple as increasing the blocksize in Bitcoin this would have been done a long time ago. The trouble is that the small block point of view also makes extremely valid points since without creating some kind of scarcity in the blocksize there is no way to force the fees in Bitcoin to rise in order to provide an incentive the miners once the block reward runs out. So in this respect Bitcoin is caught between a rock and hard place with one group arguing for the rock and the other group arguing for the hard place.

As I have mentioned before the only working solution I have seen that allows for both security and a market based adaptive blocksize is what we have in Monero or something very similar. This requires a tail emission, which is fundamentally against the Bitcoin social covenant. This whole issue is becoming highly relevant to not only both BItcoin and Monero, but also to most other crypto currencies as more and more market players recognize the issues involved. Any market participants trading in or investing in crypto currencies would be wise to inform themselves on this issue and its ramifications.

Edit: https://blockchain.info/

A most succinct overview of bitcoins conundrum. Thank you.
Adaptive blocksize, tail emission and privacy is what brought me to Monero. It is bitcoin 2.0 in my eyes.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
December 15, 2016, 08:36:24 PM
...
Do you have a better explanation that accounts for the observable fact heavily funded bitcoin companies failed to produce the kinds of spectacular results Silicon Valley expects, even as the value of bitcoin itself continues to climb?  Speculating about motivations and fretting about EVIL BLOCKSTREAMCORE doesn't count; your personal status as disgruntled isn't an argument that leads to a falsifiable (ie useful) hypothesis.
...

Very simple. If the maximum transactions per second is capped to somewhere between 2 tps and 7 tps this places a limit on the growth of a Bitcoin company, say for example a payment processor, no matter how much venture capital the company may raise. This explains, the weak performance of existing Bitcoin companies, the fall in new venture capital for Bitcoin companies and Bitcoin companies seeking greener pastures outside of Bitcoin.

Take for example Walmart. Walmart is currently at war with VISA over merchant fees. This is manifested in both litigation in the United States and trials in Canada where Walmart is testing not accepting VISA in certain stores. A Bitcoin payment processor could make a very good case on how they can process retail transactions for Walmart using Bitcoin for a fraction of what VISA charges. The trouble is that if such a Bitcoin payment processor were to succeed they would not be able to deliver since if only a small fraction of Walmart's sales were to be made using BItcoin the Bitcoin network would not be able to handle it. Furthermore we are not talking cups of coffee here, The typical Walmart retail sale is way more than that. There is a reason why virtually every Bitcoin company is pushing for an increase in the Bitcoin blocksize.

If it were as simple as increasing the blocksize in Bitcoin this would have been done a long time ago. The trouble is that the small block point of view also makes extremely valid points since without creating some kind of scarcity in the blocksize there is no way to force the fees in Bitcoin to rise in order to provide an incentive the miners once the block reward runs out. So in this respect Bitcoin is caught between a rock and hard place with one group arguing for the rock and the other group arguing for the hard place.

As I have mentioned before the only working solution I have seen that allows for both security and a market based adaptive blocksize is what we have in Monero or something very similar. This requires a tail emission, which is fundamentally against the Bitcoin social covenant. This whole issue is becoming highly relevant to not only both BItcoin and Monero, but also to most other crypto currencies as more and more market players recognize the issues involved. Any market participants trading in or investing in crypto currencies would be wise to inform themselves on this issue and its ramifications.

Edit: https://blockchain.info/
hero member
Activity: 493
Merit: 551
December 15, 2016, 08:01:57 PM
I think the situation is good.
Looking back at when I followed your advices or sayings, I would say you have a far better "backtesting" on long term choices than short term trading... (best decision I take reading your posts and others during 2014 and later: invest in monero long term, worst one : selling a significant part when you predicted capitulation a few weeks ago).

Well the good news is you were selling it to him and he knows what to do with it better.  Grin

+1

Thats what I say: Let them all sell into our strong hodling arms.

XMR is so young, yet it is compared to other crypto projects already an established, growing project with new developers and community members joining continuously.
No one of us is even capable of predicting where Monero could be even in just 2 further years.
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
December 15, 2016, 06:40:28 PM
I think the situation is good.
Looking back at when I followed your advices or sayings, I would say you have a far better "backtesting" on long term choices than short term trading... (best decision I take reading your posts and others during 2014 and later: invest in monero long term, worst one : selling a significant part when you predicted capitulation a few weeks ago).

I do believe I warned against this and even opened a long.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 501
December 15, 2016, 05:08:28 PM
I think the situation is good.
Looking back at when I followed your advices or sayings, I would say you have a far better "backtesting" on long term choices than short term trading... (best decision I take reading your posts and others during 2014 and later: invest in monero long term, worst one : selling a significant part when you predicted capitulation a few weeks ago).

Well the good news is you were selling it to him and he knows what to do with it better.  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1001
December 15, 2016, 03:18:39 PM
I think the situation is good.

Good to see you back Risto - I hope things are improving in your world and I am sure I am not the only one looking forward to your further thoughts.

I like your posts, kurious, but I don't get the love for Mr Reptilia (from you and many others.) It affects the impressionable minds of newbies (cough cough me) into thinking this guy is some amazing oracle. I am guilty of believing his earlier predictions and selling a portion of my coins because I surmised he would know better than me (totally my fault, I know.)

Risto is an enthusiastic investor and a thoughtful analyst, not Nostradamus. I'm glad to have his participation for his insights, not for his infallibility or anyone else's for that matter.
sr. member
Activity: 445
Merit: 255
December 15, 2016, 02:49:06 PM
I think the situation is good.
Looking back at when I followed your advices or sayings, I would say you have a far better "backtesting" on long term choices than short term trading... (best decision I take reading your posts and others during 2014 and later: invest in monero long term, worst one : selling a significant part when you predicted capitulation a few weeks ago).
full member
Activity: 176
Merit: 108
December 15, 2016, 01:56:57 PM
I think the situation is good.

Good to see you back Risto - I hope things are improving in your world and I am sure I am not the only one looking forward to your further thoughts.

I like your posts, kurious, but I don't get the love for Mr Reptilia (from you and many others.) It affects the impressionable minds of newbies (cough cough me) into thinking this guy is some amazing oracle. I am guilty of believing his earlier predictions and selling a portion of my coins because I surmised he would know better than me (totally my fault, I know.)
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