Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 965. (Read 3314350 times)

I'm curious... what makes you so sure that there is a chance of the US losing it's petro dollar? Is there any notion that something like this could happen?

Also, I'm quite skeptical that all of OPEC will agree to trade oil for only Bitcoins... Bitcoin's blockchain can hardly handle the transactional load of a bunch of geeks; I can't see a world, with 1 Mb blocks, can handle all nations continuously buying/selling for oil.  That would just be insanity, and it won't be long before OPEC will get sick and tired of waiting for confirmation times in order to sell their oil.

IMO, yes, absolutely.
Govs will come after the transparent, non-fungible wealth of BTC when the shit hits the fan and the banks are crumbling. XMR absolutely has a niche in this environment (and any other). But money will naturally flow to where the liquidity is first, and most do not understand the relative benfits yet, so it will take time.


EDIT:
Will also be interesting to see how people react to the increasing delays with BTC if it goes on a run- I have a tx that was sent to me with high priority fee nearly 2 hours ago, and it is yet to confirm as the mempool has spiked up to 20MB this afternoon - this is not acceptable. A fairly priced tx has been 'crowded out' by tx's that came later and adjusted fees to the size of the (larger) mempool when they were sent . How is that reasonable? And what will it look like if BTC really gets some volume? Mempool is now sitting at 20MB and I have no idea when this tx will confirm. That is SHIT money. Are we supposed to try and guess what the mempool might be by the time the next block is confirmed. That is ridiculous.And clearly not all wallets are adjusting fees well enough to account for the variance in block times and size of mempool. And nor should they have to to this degree. The problem is at the protocol layer, not the wallets.
The fee when sent was 0.00013144 BTC. Should be fine right ?

"Received Time    2016-10-25 22:01:18
Estimated Confirmation Time    Very Soon (High Priority)"

Lol - 2 hours later ... nothing...

I fail to see how BTC can go much higher (on any volume) without this issue being resolved.
And I welcome this as it will reveal the flaws in BTC  that nobody is willing to address in a timely and non-partisan manner.

And then came XMR ...

Yes there will certainly be and I think Monero will likely come out on top when the money starts flowing into alts after a BTC bubble if/when it happens.  Bitcoin just hit 670 on finex as I typed, 4600 on Huobi.

I generally agree.  

But I also realize I stupidly used 12 hour days instead of 24 hours, so have repasted below.  1/34/365 day mkt cap at 0.25 BTC to ZEC is now $34k, $20.1m, and $414m.

Another interesting data point is that with ZEC = 0.25 BTC, and given that BTC has gone through two halvenings, after day 34 the daily dollar value of mined ZEC will be the same as bitcoin.  $1.2m per day, $8.3m per week, $33.2m per month...

Is Monero around 10 XMR per block, 2 minute blocks?  If so, daily emission at $5.92 is around $42k.

Should have put my question into context, if BTC reaches these prices it will be mainstream and part of a visible and traceable economy. There will always be needs for non traceable currency and will this niche be for XMR thus increasing its value ?

Will XMR be taken on the ride to higher prices ?

I think thats very possible.  It would be hard to put a number on it, it would be complete speculation but I think even a lot higher than that would be possible.

Imagine a scenario where US loses the petro dollar and oil becomes traded in Bitcoins.  Or a financial system crash of unseen magnitude which seems likely to be in our future.  Euro seems to be dying a slow death, the US dollar is strong but when the petro dollar is gone it will crash hard as well.  The house of cards will come crashing down one day, they can only kick the can down the road so many times.

My thoughts too. People covering/buying back in again, no real sellers. Not to say they can't/won't knock it down some more, but the game gets increasingly risky ...

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/huobi/btccny

Look at 1 week chart, hard to deny Bitcoin bear market is over.  Every 1% or 2% increase just reaffirms this notion.  Rome wasnt built in a day, it will creep up slowly until FOMO kicks in and things will get crazy again.

With the state of affairs of world financial systems and institution its a perfect storm for a Bitcoin explosion.  Likely orders of magnitude better than ever before during Bitcoins existence.

bitcoin's not really up unless you consider 1% a significant move

Is there any reason for Bitcoin going up?

Yeah... what he said.  LOL

Thanks man

Geez man... lighten up, LOL

I was not "blaming" it was more "just sayin'..."

U gotta admit it HAS been a long time coming and I HAVE BEEN SUPPORTIVE about the delay in the past... but, ya know, comes a time when enough is enough.

OK anyway whatever... not affecting ME personally as in ANY case come thick or thin I intend to just HODL.

But, geez, some people around here srsly need to lighten up, Francis... LOL

Your 3 examples are examples when Bitcoin was in a bear market.

If bitcoin is in a bull market, the timeframes can possibly adjusted out and may not even apply here.

Time will tell.

This is excellent analysis. The market has to balance the valuation of the crypto - currency as a whole, market cap, vs the valuation of each individual token, price  in the presence of a limited and highly predictable hyper inflation during the first year. A very likely result will be an initial short lived bull market, price close to parity with Bitcoin is actually possible, followed by a brutal bear market with a loss in the 95% or higher over the subsequent 6 - 9 months. It could take several years for the price to reach the initial bull market price if at all. Here are some prior examples

1) Monero. Initial high 0.01111 XBT, Subsequent low 0.00091 XBT. Initial fall in value of the individual token over 91% in terms of XBT, higher in terms of USD, EUR etc. Monero only exceeded its 2014 per token peak over 2 years later. The market cap when the initial peak was exceeded was 10x and soon went over 20x the market cap of the 2014 peak.  

2) Dogecoin. The 2014 peak was around 0.00000300 XBT the subsequent bear low  0.00000019 XBT Loss for each individual token over 93%. Dogecoin has not seen 0.00000300 XBT since.

3) Dash. Now in this case the phenomenon was mitigated by the instamine; however in spite of the instamine the effect was still present. The 2014 peak was around 0.02740 XBT the subsequent bear low  0.00215 XBT. Loss for each individual token over 92% in terms of XBT

So my take with Zcash is wait about 6-9 moths and then see.

Definite suppression and accumulation going on.

An interesting thing about Zcash is that it may be the most hyped alt that is also being launched without any ICO or premine.  It also plans on "slow-start mining":  the amount of ZEC each time a block is mined will start at zero and gradually ramp up to 12.5 ZEC after 34 days.  

So even at the B0.25 per ZEC / $660 BTC / $165 ZEC, the initial market caps will be low.  Around $17k on the first day, ramping to $10m by the end of slow mining.  Then, after a year it would get to $207m (3,600 ZEC per day).

So the irrational exhuberance in the early days could be offset [edit] exacerbated by headline numbers saying the market cap is still tiny.  And, the slow emission / no ICO or pre-mine also means very little liquidity on the markets, which could further drive craziness.

Ironically, their attempt to be "fair" by avoiding pre-mine or ICO may lead to crazy and volatile early prices, and it may take time before the market cap is perceived to be egregious by people who just look at top line numbers.

Here is the quick analysis I put together.  I just used a daily increase on block reward to reach the 12.5 on day 34, they may be using a more gradual curve.

The stupidest comment Ive read in a long time. Head over to fucking github page and build it for urself, u sly dog... Who the fuck are u blaming for not delivering the dumbproof thingy to ur doorstep lolol, u sore ass.

Am experiencing no bugs whatsoever with the GUI... Received - sent, works smooth as butter on integrated graphics... No glitches no shimmering lol

Go build the stuff for urself if u wanna use it. Maybe u'll learn something eventually.

Chill man.. enjoy this sensational wave until the GUI drops:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCawU6BE8P8

That was quicker than expected I must admit. Now if only I would know how to trade instead of just buy & hold, dammit  .
But since I already own my share that makes me rather stoic I suppose.