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Topic: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread (Read 69977 times)

newbie
Activity: 12
Merit: 0
January 02, 2017, 09:06:44 PM
Hi Risto. Can you update the numbers one more time?
hyc
member
Activity: 88
Merit: 16
August 23, 2016, 08:28:48 AM
Wit the change to an LMDB implementation, I think the long blockchain download will be obsolete. Not sure where that is in terms of being released to live.

The wallet improvement is actually unrelated to LMDB. I'll probably get around to integrating LMDB into the wallet later, but the performance gain in the new wallet code is completely independent of that. On a modern PC you can sync a newly created wallet in under 10 seconds.

This shows the difference in wallet refresh, running on an old machine with 2.2GHz CPU - from several minutes down to 16 seconds:
https://gist.github.com/hyc/e7381c2369398f2eaa93f2bb25a31dd4

If people don't have the patience to wait 10-15 seconds to initialize their wallets, they're just being ridiculous.
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 2053
Free spirit
August 23, 2016, 06:58:36 AM
Wit the change to an LMDB implementation, I think the long blockchain download will be obsolete. Not sure where that is in terms of being released to live.


legendary
Activity: 2926
Merit: 1440
August 23, 2016, 06:51:48 AM
I have a suggestion to help improve Monero's economy. It is simple and practical. I have recently read the news that 2 darknet market places will accept XMR starting on September 1. So why not create a light wallet complete with GUI. I am very sure that the people who buy and sell in the darknet will not have the patience to download the whole blockchain. It will be more convenient for them to have a light wallet. It will also help in gaining faster adoption.
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 2053
Free spirit
August 23, 2016, 03:36:04 AM


I'm sure it is possible but the counterparty risk would be insane, how much XMR would you trust to an anonymous exchange? Maybe they are legit but get hacked, or say they got hacked and run an exit scam with user deposits. Can't even trace where the stolen funds are going.


Its not like we got the money back from the sharex exit scam, the bitcoin ledger didn't help there. Just a lot of wishful thinkers threatening to dox it somehow.
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
August 23, 2016, 01:29:05 AM
I worry that poloniex is too centralized as an exchange for monero.

There needs to be more exchanges or more usage with decentralized exchanges.  Undecided

is only one exchanger central in big volume transaction is not good, and poloniex is only big volume transaction in monero, bitrex is very low volume transaction monero
its coin good is decentalized coin in much exchanger
big coin big volume is all decentralized
you can see litecoin ethereum or dogecoin we are decentralized and much exchanger acceptep trade
sr. member
Activity: 416
Merit: 250
August 22, 2016, 11:53:31 PM
waves DEX should be up and running in a few months, Im sure that almost all high volume coins will be traded there.  It will supposedly use existing exchanges for centralized pair matching, while using the blockchain to keep it decentralized in the wallet..

Sasha: “‘DEX’, is a term from James, from SuperNet. This is the thing I told you about. It is centralized order matching with decentralized settlement. DEX is a distributed exchange. James had another idea. He wanted to do it completely peer-to-peer with centralized matching and decentralized settlement. So you will have very fast trading, like in Poloniex.”

Sasha: “We are writing the code already. We are writing the crypto-currency part, the blockchain part, and will be starting to code the centralized matcher. We will be working with certain existing crypto-currency exchanges that can offer their services. They will be handling the matching. We also want to offer independent solutions. So, a matching module can be installed by anyone who wants to launch his or her own crypto-currency exchange utilizing this matcher.

havent been a fan of XMR for a long time because of its centralized trading system negating almost all its use(and other things unrelated to the tech), but if you guys can get xmr trading quickly and without KYC/AML  I may change my mind.
legendary
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1004
August 22, 2016, 10:23:32 PM
I worry that poloniex is too centralized as an exchange for monero.

There needs to be more exchanges or more usage with decentralized exchanges.  Undecided

I was thinking, would it be possible for a Dark Net exchange for crypto? Would that idea fly? Is there that many Dark Net traders/merchants and buyers to support a healthy Dark market for trading?  Laundering their money cheaply would be their key motivation here.  Son instead of using BTC as the base currency, it would be XMR.  So everyone dealing with BTC would want to trade for XMR in the Dark Net for better anonymity.

I'm sure it is possible but the counterparty risk would be insane, how much XMR would you trust to an anonymous exchange? Maybe they are legit but get hacked, or say they got hacked and run an exit scam with user deposits. Can't even trace where the stolen funds are going.

I do agree and hope that some more exchanges become seriously interested in Monero now. Poloniex is great but they were down for about 5 minutes yesterday (some sort of outage), it essentially stops the entire XMR ecosystem because everyone (xmr.to, shapeshift) is relying on their api for the exchange rate.

Decentralized exchanges like Bitsquare are a good step.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1473
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
August 22, 2016, 10:10:49 PM
I worry that poloniex is too centralized as an exchange for monero.

There needs to be more exchanges or more usage with decentralized exchanges.  Undecided

Bitsquare.io

Yes, but that remains to be used en masse. Still I feel people won't learn until they get burned...again.

I hope I'm wrong in my assumptions about Poloniex and it being too centralized.

legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1029
Sine secretum non libertas
August 22, 2016, 10:08:18 PM
I worry that poloniex is too centralized as an exchange for monero.

There needs to be more exchanges or more usage with decentralized exchanges.  Undecided

Bitsquare.io
legendary
Activity: 3906
Merit: 1403
Life, Love and Laughter...
August 22, 2016, 09:50:49 PM
I worry that poloniex is too centralized as an exchange for monero.

There needs to be more exchanges or more usage with decentralized exchanges.  Undecided

I was thinking, would it be possible for a Dark Net exchange for crypto? Would that idea fly? Is there that many Dark Net traders/merchants and buyers to support a healthy Dark market for trading?  Laundering their money cheaply would be their key motivation here.  Son instead of using BTC as the base currency, it would be XMR.  So everyone dealing with BTC would want to trade for XMR in the Dark Net for better anonymity.

 
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1473
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
August 22, 2016, 09:37:07 PM
I worry that poloniex is too centralized as an exchange for monero.

There needs to be more exchanges or more usage with decentralized exchanges.  Undecided
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
August 22, 2016, 06:02:39 PM
How much XMR is available for sale? - on all exchanges? - where would the price be if the supply dried up?
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
Can I ask you which type of future events you imagine are most like to grow the number of users and/or impact the distribution the most?

For example how do you think the launch of Crypto Kingdom will change this?

What about an Android wallet, official GUI or increased merchant adoption?

(I don't believe we even have 25000 owners right now. That much could be the total number of people exposed to XMR but many of them are at zero balance.)

Price will rise as money enters in. We have the moneroinvestment.com site, which will soon be polished for launch and will target midclass people who are interested in buying 10-100k XMR with fiat. Even a few of these guys can raise the price significantly.

CK has potential to absolutely explode XMR. At present, about 1% of XMR is already in CK account, so if we get "even" 100,000 new players, the price will have to go up by 10x to accommodate the equivalent new buying. Of course not every game makes it big, so this is more speculative than the 'new investors' case, which is clear as sky, only variable is timing.

I don't think the wallets or merchants matter that much, but I am pretty alone with this opinion, so perhaps they do Smiley

Obviously this depends on what kind of merchants Monero attracts.
A merchant who wants to convert the whole payment into fiat is not that beneficial as a merchant that holds the payment completely or partially in Monero.
The advantage of these "good" merchants is they create higher marketcap for the coin via bringing added value to the community and marketcap.
The added value coems via transactional demand: instead a person uses both XMR and fiat, he can use only XMR or higher proportion of XMR. And the merchants becomes a bagholder in the best case scenario.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
Can I ask you which type of future events you imagine are most like to grow the number of users and/or impact the distribution the most?

For example how do you think the launch of Crypto Kingdom will change this?

What about an Android wallet, official GUI or increased merchant adoption?

(I don't believe we even have 25000 owners right now. That much could be the total number of people exposed to XMR but many of them are at zero balance.)

Price will rise as money enters in. We have the moneroinvestment.com site, which will soon be polished for launch and will target midclass people who are interested in buying 10-100k XMR with fiat. Even a few of these guys can raise the price significantly.

CK has potential to absolutely explode XMR. At present, about 1% of XMR is already in CK account, so if we get "even" 100,000 new players, the price will have to go up by 10x to accommodate the equivalent new buying. Of course not every game makes it big, so this is more speculative than the 'new investors' case, which is clear as sky, only variable is timing.

I don't think the wallets or merchants matter that much, but I am pretty alone with this opinion, so perhaps they do Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2210
Merit: 3172
Flippin' burgers since 1163.
Monero noob question: can Monero be used for anything else than an anonymous currency?

The same applications of transparent distributed ledgers that Bitcoin is being used for.

Mixin=0 and there you go, BTC style public transactions and accountability.

Thanks for your reply, cool that you can actually choose the level of anonimity! I am reading into this viewkey option, all really interesting.

For new people to Monero, Published on Jun 10, 2015 / Riccardo "fluffypony" Spagni talks about transactional privacy and Monero at Bitcoinference: Monero Talk at Bitcoinference
member
Activity: 75
Merit: 10
Code:
25130 7314743
b_min b_max b_avg #owners XMRtot
367002 734003 519019 1 519019
183501 367002 259509 2 519019
91750 183501 129755 4 519019
45875 91750 64877 8 519019
22938 45875 32439 16 519019
11469 22938 16219 32 519019
5734 11469 8110 64 519019
2867 5734 4055 128 519019
1434 2867 2027 256 519019
717 1434 1014 512 519019
358 717 507 1126 570921
179 358 253 2253 570921
90 179 127 3604 456736
45 90 63 4686 296879
22 45 32 4686 148439
11 22 16 3604 57092
6 11 8 2253 17841
3 6 4 1126 4460
1 3 2 512 1014
0 1 1 256 253

As you quoted, this is based on a completely desktop-statistical methodology relying on the assumptions that XMR distribution is a market phenomenon. For pre/insta/nonmineable coins this is not at all true. I believe it is true for XMR since I know its history.



Thank you for sharing this estimate.

Can I ask you which type of future events you imagine are most like to grow the number of users and/or impact the distribution the most?

For example how do you think the launch of Crypto Kingdom will change this?

What about an Android wallet, official GUI or increased merchant adoption?
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
Monero noob question: can Monero be used for anything else than an anonymous currency?

Like what for example?

The same applications of transparent distributed ledgers that Bitcoin is being used for.

Mixin=0 and there you go, BTC style public transactions and accountability.
hero member
Activity: 966
Merit: 1003
Monero noob question: can Monero be used for anything else than an anonymous currency?

Like what for example?
legendary
Activity: 2210
Merit: 3172
Flippin' burgers since 1163.
Monero noob question: can Monero be used for anything else than an anonymous currency?
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