Topic: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread - page 2. (Read 70064 times)

Top 3 miningpools should be able to estimate number of wallets beeing in existance, seen Dwarf made a good job employing cookies to group miner's wallets, if they take network hashrate in relation to their own rate that gives you total number of miner's wallets.
Somehow this intersects with probably more precise numbers obtainable from inside Poloniex. Uncertainity on who is separating the mining from trading remains. But pure hodler who mine to not sell now (or tomorrow), are a very rare species. Their wallets would appear as beeing single additional entities.
At least there you get people with short time involvement added, who never bothered to even install the software. Unkommon behavier if you compare with cryptocoin involvement motivations, those count for probable new adopters.

Your completely desktop-statistical methodology relies on some inputs which are precisely known, like coins in existance. Number of wallets would add solidity to these data. I believe if one knows market dynamics, total supply, and number people involved this models reality with some decent accuracy.

As you quoted, this is based on a completely desktop-statistical methodology relying on the assumptions that XMR distribution is a market phenomenon. For pre/insta/nonmineable coins this is not at all true. I believe it is true for XMR since I know its history.

I wonder about volatility over the course of the day though. But I don't wonder enough to actually calculate it

Anonymous jokers never had 50k to begin with. The guy was a miner, he needed the money and would have sold anyway.

Making the video gave him some good laughs when compiling it. But I don't believe he lost anything since he did not sell for the video.

He probably soon has the stash replenished and needs to consider the prudent course of action. 

I am not downplaying the legendary timing of the video and am grateful of the nice pic in it 

LMAO a little louder now, yes?  Anonymous joker gave up at least 75BTC to us bulls.

Funny that it does not correspond to any divergence of the price

Good thinking! I was somewhat puzzled by that statistic, but I guess missives (and even trading in anticipation of missives) could very well be part of it.

Missives related moviments ?

Can you please update the output to reflect the number of moneroj outstanding currently, preferably keeping the same number of holders?

For the last 140 days, Monero average price (ksat) and average volume (kXMR) in Poloniex, by weekday.

Results do not show statistically significant variance in price by weekday, but do show that the average volume on Mondays is far higher (83.8k XMR) than in any of the other weekdays (41.9-59.0k XMR).

That's a very swanky suit you're wearing there,,,

I guess you missed this -> https://vid.me/ima7

Who is dumping all this xmr, I sold only 5000 xmr to take the price down to .00161. Will hold or buy more to my stash if the price falls below .0013 but we'll see. Let's see some graphs Risto.

Yeah Risto lets see the charts please.

PM 'em to me, or some data to me and I'll see what I can do (no promise) over the next few days?

Hmm... if only I had time to present them, I have many nice charts

You can lead a horse to water but you cant make him drink.

Don't worry about who you convince and who you don't convince. Everyone makes their own choices and must take responsibility for their own choices.
Betting on a 90% chance of losing everything with a 10% chance of becoming freed from debt-slavery is a very easy decision for me, though it seems hard for others. Because I believe I can make that bet 20 times before I die.

Hello guys!

I took an hour to read the thread from beginning to end, as I was thinking what platform to use as the high-quality high-SNR medium of talking about Monero.

It was funny to find that I've been preaching essentially the same things ever since the beginning, with of course more information coming and changing the tone of voice and focus to different things.

Just today, I made the appearance to the Polo trollbox as HM_The_King (a tribute to my character in Crypto Kingdom) and told that the failure of Monero is in my estimation 75% certain and significant gain happens at 15% probability (10% being a wash) in 5 years' timeframe. And that due to these numbers, XMR is the best investment I have ever encountered in my life.

My thinking has not changed, this aspect is visible in my earlier writings, just more pronounced in the more recent ones. I think it is especially important to open this up when promoting XMR as investment, because:

- In the longer term, people who have no concept of the VC investment strategy, end up blaming you if the investment goes bust (and it's depressing to be blamed most of the time, since most of these investments do go bust - 70% is a typical VC total_loss rate). Yet they attribute all gains to their own foresight.

- In the shorter term, even if you can coerce somebody to buy, chances are that he is clueless about what the value is, and sells way too early, no matter at a profit or at a loss. Professional Venture Capitalists never sell prematurely. They only EXIT, which is defined as selling the investment at its full and realized value. They take the risk of variance in returns, and get rewarded handsomely. So should you.