* Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only
** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience
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Continuing yesterdays 'market conditions' narrative, the following trend, has further strengthened.
May 18, 2017 2.45 PM EDT: >> Chances of settling at 33 cents and starting a gradual soft uptrend to 38 cents is 70%
May 19, 2017 2.45 PM EDT: many important signals have now confirmed this case further & we should be starting aforementioned soft-uptrend in next 8 to 10 hours cycle. It is particularly important to note that, this behavior is one of the hallmark traits of a 'fundamentally strong asset' which is still considered 'undervalued' by the market forces. Other then this trend continuation, there is no new developments today.
Important values and crux points
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>> 33 is the mean & point of start for the soft-uptrend.
>> XRP has enough lead force to continue this uptrend to 37/38 cents.
>> 38~41 cents is next 'fight-zone' where expectations will try to assert.
>> 42 cents is the next take off point, for the next region (45~71 cents).
market conditions, new interest and sentiments remain positive and are increasing consistently. However, it is important to note that the 42 cents breakout to next range should occur in no more then 3 weeks & no less then next 9 days (trend/momentum retaining range).
In other words, gradual base-strengthening uptrend should continue for at the least next 3 to 4 days & then XRP must face the 38-41 cent fight at the least for 4/5 more days. This "base-strengthening" cycling through the international market is required toproperly strengthen the asset and itsbase support lines.
Probabilities
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>> The probability that XRP will continue soft-uptrend to 37/38 cents is around 75%
>> The probability that XRP will drop to 29 cents & bounce with solid support is around 20 %
>> The probability that XRP will drop to 27 cents and find immediate & quick hard-bounce is only around 5 %.
until there is change in fundamentals & basic sentiments, I am unable to see chances of XRP dropping below 27 US cents.
My new learning/realization.
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In traditional markets(ex: stocks/bonds etc), 'insolvency' of systemic institutions or 'fundamental contingencies” are termed as “existential” level risks. Internet is important for traditional markets as well, but its more of a large outage if anything with various operation suspensions. However, in case of crypto markets, 'Internet' seems to be the 'primordial' risk on which the very existence of assets depend upon. I continue to be amazed studying the dynamics of this new market.
A key macro observation
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Observing relative sizes of various world markets ( stocks/fx/bonds/bullion/etf/derivatives etc ) and co-relating + collating their relative performances can give some really sound insights into macro trends which 'can be' imminent and ready to play out. I will provide a bit more details in coming days, on a particular trend I have observed in this regard.
Lastly, of course, it is important that analysis evolves with changing market conditions & related developments. Hence, I will make sure to be flexible and adopt accordingly.
Kindly,
R8
Edited 21 hours ago by R8102V1D2D
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