Topic: YAWN - page 4. (Read 4522 times)
so we've broken the all-time-high.
what now?
how many expected a bubble top?
the momentum of this rally is shot.
if nothing happens (flat prices), what will you do?
if price drops 10%, will you sell? 205? 30%? 50%?
our news-based, rapid-adoption rally is deflating.
i expect if we fail to maintain the (approximately) 2% daily average growth for the month of February for the rest of this week, we will correct with high volatility. if we exceed it, we will bubble up.
-===-
-===-
the blue 'volatility' line superficially suggests that the bursting of the bubble is imminent, but the slight correction after the peak in the Febuary structure fails in comparison with the size of the retrace in the June structure. we could just be approaching the support for the eventual bubble top.
whether that support has been discovered by price already or if it is currently overbought, however, is not known.
this leads to the conclusion that either:
-the panic buying starts now.
or
-we will enter a downtrend with high volatility
interestingly enough, this coincides with a hypothesis that DREE12 had earlier posited based on his analysis of "bitcoin's top days" data:
science is when you can derive the same conclusion from different means
anyway, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.
what now?
how many expected a bubble top?
the momentum of this rally is shot.
if nothing happens (flat prices), what will you do?
if price drops 10%, will you sell? 205? 30%? 50%?
our news-based, rapid-adoption rally is deflating.
i expect if we fail to maintain the (approximately) 2% daily average growth for the month of February for the rest of this week, we will correct with high volatility. if we exceed it, we will bubble up.
-===-
-===-
the blue 'volatility' line superficially suggests that the bursting of the bubble is imminent, but the slight correction after the peak in the Febuary structure fails in comparison with the size of the retrace in the June structure. we could just be approaching the support for the eventual bubble top.
whether that support has been discovered by price already or if it is currently overbought, however, is not known.
this leads to the conclusion that either:
-the panic buying starts now.
or
-we will enter a downtrend with high volatility
interestingly enough, this coincides with a hypothesis that DREE12 had earlier posited based on his analysis of "bitcoin's top days" data:
Going a bit more in-depth, we have the king effect clearly seen in Bitcoin prices:
The king effect means that when Bitcoin goes back up above $30, it will either continue to rise before a sizable collapse, or collapse immediately. For example, all of the following are plausible scenarios:
The king effect means that it is unlikely we will see both new highs and stability. One has to go.
The king effect means that when Bitcoin goes back up above $30, it will either continue to rise before a sizable collapse, or collapse immediately. For example, all of the following are plausible scenarios:
- Price remains below ~$25, with stability
- Price rises above ~$25, then quickly collapses below ~$25, with some stability
- Price rises above ~$25, then continues rising to around $40 before returning to the $25 to $30 level, with little stability
- Price rises above ~$25, then continues rising to far above $25 before collapsing but remaining above $25, with almost no stability
The king effect means that it is unlikely we will see both new highs and stability. One has to go.
science is when you can derive the same conclusion from different means
anyway, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.
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