Author

Topic: Yet another analyst :) - page 125. (Read 269580 times)

legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
December 30, 2012, 11:12:11 AM
Overpriced?  Huh

Check out the market cap numbers, the signups bitpay is now doing post WP (which is increasing adoption widely btw) and you will find that the real speculators havent even begun to start gnawing at it yet. We are seeing slow, sustainable growth based and its not for nothing. The tide is turning and the mainstream is starting in. 2 years from people will look back at the WP announcement as the turning point for the currency. It sets a precedent which is not even close to priced in yet.

Then you should be buying BTC with everything you got. Sell everything and buy BTC. Live on the streets because you will use your rent money to but BTC before it goes to the MOON. Do it! lol  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

lol thats just crazy

everyone who's into bitcoin should only keep what they can afford to lose in bitcoin

sure bitcoins potential is extreme but, the risk is equally extreme
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
December 30, 2012, 08:52:09 AM
I'll just leave it here. h/Sma200 is a big asteriod, trendline is a planet and price is a small pieces of that flying around asteriod.

legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
December 30, 2012, 07:15:04 AM
There was a brief chance of a hype from the wordpress thing, but that chance is already missed. The effect you are all talking about isn't happening, for once wordpress accepts bitpay, not bitcoin. Accepting bitpay payment is not equivalent to accepting bitcoin. Second, wordpress isn't representative of anything.

Again there is a positive development but that regards that high-traffic sites report on things like wordpress & bitpay. But those development in their own don't really mean anything - it's not like wordpress has written it onto their flag as a commitment to bitcoin, they could leave any time. Real positive, not speculative developments are happening, but those are something else - it's random sites on the web accepting bitcoin donations to pay for hosting directly. I've seen that slowly spreading, and that my friend is the true potential of bitcoin.
Not some hyped announcement by a payment processor" just there to enable cronies leveraged market manipulation. (You guesssed it - I don't like bitpay)
sr. member
Activity: 412
Merit: 250
December 30, 2012, 05:58:50 AM
The WordPress announcement is one of those things that will have an ongoing positive impact on bitcoin adoption. Its the flow on effect on other websites that's important, rather than WordPress by itself. While its difficult to say exactly how big an impact it will end up having, we know that it will be considerable. Just as the EFF's stance towards bitcoin has an ongoing negative impact, so too does WordPress's stance have an ongoing positive impact. A doubling of value is not out of the question.

sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
December 30, 2012, 04:58:18 AM
It sets a precedent which is not even close to priced in yet.

so you're saying that that single business venture is worth more than a doubling of value for every single one of 10 million coins?
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1473
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
December 30, 2012, 04:40:47 AM
Overpriced?  Huh

Check out the market cap numbers, the signups bitpay is now doing post WP (which is increasing adoption widely btw) and you will find that the real speculators havent even begun to start gnawing at it yet. We are seeing slow, sustainable growth based and its not for nothing. The tide is turning and the mainstream is starting in. 2 years from people will look back at the WP announcement as the turning point for the currency. It sets a precedent which is not even close to priced in yet.

Then you should be buying BTC with everything you got. Sell everything and buy BTC. Live on the streets because you will use your rent money to but BTC before it goes to the MOON. Do it! lol  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
December 30, 2012, 04:29:45 AM
Overpriced?  Huh

Check out the market cap numbers, the signups bitpay is now doing post WP (which is increasing adoption widely btw) and you will find that the real speculators havent even begun to start gnawing at it yet. We are seeing slow, sustainable growth based and its not for nothing. The tide is turning and the mainstream is starting in. 2 years from people will look back at the WP announcement as the turning point for the currency. It sets a precedent which is not even close to priced in yet.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1473
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
December 30, 2012, 03:35:45 AM
bitcoins are wayyy overpriced right now. even ignoring technical analysis (which i generally do not -- i've been following along in the CRASH thread with similar notations and predictions as lucif) there is reason to suspect, as many on this forum -- albeit quietly -- do, that we are heading towards a midterm downtrend or even, for the first time in bitcoin history, a long-term downtrend.

heres a short list:
price double, ostensibly from the reward halving, but anyone who looks at the math involved in the halving with regards to the protocol would realize (as it was widely discussed) that there is no such cut-and-dry "supply halving" to cause this to happen. yet the market priced it in rather suddenly, not based on any other real news, after the extremely low-volatility period in the early summer.

straight lines on log graphs are unsustainable: something is going on here. we aren't seeing widespread adoption which would hypothetically follow an exponential growth model. we're just seeing people buying reallly expensive bitcoins.

accumulation/distribution at an all-time high and is losing momentum.

optimism: we're still in the 'denial' phase of investor emotion cycles after the rocket to 15 crashed and burned and we failed to even come close to the all-time high.

and finally, probably my most subjective point:

bitcoins were worth $5 six months ago and there has been no significant increase in their utility or future value promise: i firmly believe the recent doubling is due to hype about the reward halving and market manipulation by pirate and others.

+1
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
December 30, 2012, 03:19:32 AM
There may not be increased utility but value promise. Mainstream sites report regularly on developments, that has not been the case half a year ago.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
December 30, 2012, 03:10:33 AM
bitcoins are wayyy overpriced right now. even ignoring technical analysis (which i generally do not -- i've been following along in the CRASH thread with similar notations and predictions as lucif) there is reason to suspect, as many on this forum -- albeit quietly -- do, that we are heading towards a midterm downtrend or even, for the first time in bitcoin history, a long-term downtrend.

heres a short list:
price double, ostensibly from the reward halving, but anyone who looks at the math involved in the halving with regards to the protocol would realize (as it was widely discussed) that there is no such cut-and-dry "supply halving" to cause this to happen. yet the market priced it in rather suddenly, not based on any other real news, after the extremely low-volatility period in the early summer.

straight lines on log graphs are unsustainable: something is going on here. we aren't seeing widespread adoption which would hypothetically follow an exponential growth model. we're just seeing people buying reallly expensive bitcoins.

accumulation/distribution at an all-time high and is losing momentum.

optimism: we're still in the 'denial' phase of investor emotion cycles after the rocket to 15 crashed and burned and we failed to even come close to the all-time high.

and finally, probably my most subjective point:

bitcoins were worth $5 six months ago and there has been no significant increase in their utility or future value promise: i firmly believe the recent doubling is due to hype about the reward halving and market manipulation by pirate and others.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
December 29, 2012, 05:55:32 PM
Bitcoin is the monetary tool around which a business economy is built.  mathematics is what backs the money's security and eliminates the need for an organizational overseer composed of men.

the business economy that grows up around Bitcoin may or may not need a Better Business Bureau as you propose.  The Market will sort that out by itself.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
December 29, 2012, 05:42:43 PM
So I should complaint mathematics for MagicalTux not fixing bugs and has 1-2-3-4 months delays in withdrawals? Smiley

no.  but what he does won't jeopardize the mathematics/security behind Bitcoin; and therein lies the reason why most of us have invested in Bitcoin.  gox could go under tomorrow and it wouldn't affect the security of my Bitcoin.  yes, the market would knock the price down as it deals with the "perception" of reduced liquidity.  but eventually another exchange would replace gox and route around the problem.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
December 29, 2012, 05:38:46 PM
So I should complaint mathematics for MagicalTux not fixing bugs and has 1-2-3-4 months delays in withdrawals? Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
December 29, 2012, 05:30:48 PM
Cypher, liquidity and responsibility are linked proportionally.

Liquidity will not come to place without resposibility. Are you a poor man if you do not know this truth?

time and patience should solve this as more ppl become aware.  the mathematics provides the responsibility.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
December 29, 2012, 05:25:52 PM
Cypher, liquidity and responsibility are linked proportionally.

Liquidity will not come to place without resposibility. Are you a poor man if you do not know this truth?
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
December 29, 2012, 05:22:05 PM
Well, I tested "Responsibilty" technicial indicator in this topic: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1425338

Seems that it equals to zero in Bitcoin community.

Reach people know that big money is big resposibility.

So there is no big money here.

My long term trend is DOWN.

you are conflating 2 separate things here.  gold serves as a useful analogy.  there is a huge amount of liquidity surrounding the trading of gold on the exchanges precisely b/c it has proven itself in the past as a useful store of value.  there is, otoh, almost a zero economy surrounding gold however.

Bitcoin is just a form of money.  the regulations you speak of concern businesses engaging in Bitcoin services.  there may or may not be a need for a certifying organization.  but it won't affect Bitcoin itself if it becomes a stable store of value like most of us here think it will.  
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
December 29, 2012, 05:02:10 PM
Well, I tested "Responsibilty" technicial indicator in this topic: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1425338

Seems that it equals to zero in Bitcoin community.

Reach people know that big money is big resposibility.

So there is no big money here.

My long term trend is DOWN.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
December 29, 2012, 02:54:17 PM
My five cents to Bitcoin Foundation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=133844.new#new

By the motives of this topic.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
December 29, 2012, 02:03:36 PM
I don't compete with you, I still compete with them. You just represent one of their face, whos don't know whats he doing.

They get this knowledge, and used it fine for some time. I don't stand against this knowledge to be used to lure a girl into orgy, but it is too much to kill her after.... See my sig.

I'll try to use this knowledge with benefit for people to open their eyes and help to see the reality.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
December 29, 2012, 01:10:18 PM
I don't love the Satan as well as I don't love Jesus.

But my knowledge is provided for me by one ancient cult. I didn't want that, I didn't ask that, but they choose me in some reason. It is provided to me for free, so I can't ask payment. It is some related to ppl psychology, so I can handle any science, including trading.

However I can hide the full picture from public and make some money on that. Not too much, don't worry.

 Shocked  i can't compete with that!
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