Topic: Yet another analyst :) - page 129. (Read 269580 times)

That is the point. Bitcoin is complex software for common user understanding. People will not buy potatoes for bitcoin in near future. Only hard technicials and criminals close their eyes for mentioned bottlenecks and understands the technology.

They agree to wait initial sync for two days (and growing). I dont count chain download via torrent - its centralized stuff and another type of brainfuck.
They agree to wait a sync when they didnt use vanilla client for a long time.
They agree that bitcoin client stucks their hdd and its almost impossible to do regular work on computer during this.
They agree to research what difference between confirmed/unconfirmed trans.
They agree that bitcoin consumes large resouces on their pc.

Some of them agree with that because of geek fanatism. Some because there is no legal way to offer their services.

But for regular user decentralized bitcoin client is just a chineese letter. Only centralized services are better for understanding - but they do regular scam. If they dont do scam - they will be closed for money laundering (hello, MtGox!). The most attractive news about Bitcoin are related to scam and illegal use (see google trends). They bring a stereotype that Bitcoin is something related to scam and illegal stuff.

That is what Bitcoin for regular user: something complex, hard, illegal and scam-related.

Sad but true. I think market is waiting for big disappointment, as many ppl think that is GOLD20, replacement for cash, etc, etc. But Bitcoin is initially ILLEGAL coz of its anonymous nature. It will be always a heaven for criminals and scammers. And this is the true niche for this technology. And the road of understanding this lays via big disappointment.

IMHO.

I'm not sure. I don't think you can say for certain either. I don't think it will become relevant for about lets say 20 years.

Fork trap here if asics not a scam.

If bitcoin price goes to the heaven - only idiot will sell own ASIC technology which may bring him >50% of overall reward. Then we'll have a danger of 51% attack and most power located in few hands => prices go to hell.

If bitcoin price goes to the hell - they will sell technology. But prices go to hell.

The only way for bitcoin price to survive is to stay stable sideways for all priod of asic adoption.

Yup. But what about usability of that for regular user?

I see 3 linear curves, if the overall thing tends to become exponential it has to be weighted against advances in hard-drive capacity and communication bandwidth both of which increase in a exponential fashion.

Anyone say where this exponental curve leads to?

http://blockchain.info/ru/charts/blocks-size?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Because during a gold rush there are very few miners/panners who strike a nice gold vein, but everyone who sells shovels and blue jeans gets rich.  Most miners barely scrape by and eventually give up.

Just come here and press Uncofirmed transactions. Wait, drink a cofee, smoke a sig. And see Gateway timeout This wasnt in past. What next? If bitcoin grow to some average payment system size, number of broadcasted transactions would be overwhelming.

It may not overwhelm power pools servers, but will overwhelm regular clients. We go to centralized model with that stuff not fixed.

Because the eggs spoil very quickly but people will always buy chickens.

Everybody knows about this issue and acknowledges it right now and until the block reward becomes irrelevant it isn't rally any issue. Bitcoin was never made to last that long only a few years. Satoshi said it.


1. Real yes, but again unlikely. Unlikely enough not to worry about.
3. We agreed already it's entirely possible.

Pls explain me why to sell chicken which brings golden eggs?

If it were so easy don't you think it would be attempted?  They invented a problem that doesn't seem to actually exist just so they could "fix" bitcoin.  Yes, I have read and understood the paper.

I see points 1 and 3 real. Point 4 is a joke of course. But every joke has bit of thruth.

Another portion of pessimism

1. Bitcoin has a bottleneck with unconfirmed transactions network buffer, firstly pointed by Microsoft research team. It can easily paralyze network on high load
2. Bitcoin has a bottleneck  with its database size and sync process. Vanilla client is almost unusable for common non-technicial Internet user.

If problem 2 may be solved by futher Electrum server development and deployment of such scheme, the problem 1 persists.

1. Very unlikely to happen, if they actually are able to produce working hardware they would be much better off continuing to do so.
2. Not going to happen, GPU miners will quit after they start become unprofitable not before it, hashrate would only go up.
3. Sure why not? But I'd not be too concerned with a selloff but with a permanent image problem alas a long grind down.
4. That would be stupid and even discussing it is stupid, overall just a stupid point.

Lucif, you might get your precious coins back, but it will likely take a few weeks/ months.

Some thoughts about near future. I dont understand why do ppl so happy for now

Bitcoin stands on border of great changes with reward halving and ASIC arriving.

Reward halving complete. It almost kicked out GPU miners. They still have hope for alternative chains though, but network already became unstable coz they jumping from one chain to another with more than 51% power.

My variants for next events:
1. ASIC devel complete. Owners will not sell em to community and will mine by themselves. With more than 51% power
danger: 51% attack
2. ASIC devel complete. Owners will sell em to community and network power start fluctuate as hell.
danger: unstable network
3. ASIC is a scam. Scammed miners will leave this business with great selloff.
danger: selloff
4. Gavin looking on all of that shit and changing hashing algo
danger: chain fork


Anyone has happy point?

  oh please teach others my ways....lol

LOL that would take all the fun out of it though. 

You know Cypher, ignoring him is an option too.