So when are we going to hit $30-$50 then Lucif? lol 
I wouldn't rule it out. I bet you said that two weeks ago.
Don't make me laugh...wait...please make me laugh harder!
Topic: Yet another analyst :) - page 50. (Read 269580 times)
I wouldn't rule it out. I bet you said that two weeks ago.
Don't make me laugh...wait...please make me laugh harder!
So when are we going to hit $30-$50 then Lucif? lol
I wouldn't rule it out. I bet you said that two weeks ago.
So when are we going to hit $30-$50 then Lucif? lol
Daily MACD heavy resistance area (past bullish rally macd bounce levels). SMA20 tanking like a boss (blue).
Big time price manipulation is happening guys. By my estimation everything will crumble sometime between now and if price hits 101.
Just a typical bear market rally
Yes... the fact that you know its a bear rally makes you wanna profit it :p
Amazing that just days after a parabolic move followed by an 80% crash people are already getting euphoric again about Bitcoin with the recent retracement.
I've been around Bitcoin since its inception, and I've watched the psychological shifts. If this truely was a new bull market, nobody would be euphoric about it... It's going to take one hell of a rout to get back to those conditions
That's why they say bull markets climb a wall of worry, and bear markets slide down a slope of hope
Back in the day, your intuition based on FORUM sentiment was 100% spot on.
As bitcoin grows, I bet you more than 50% of the users do not post or know about bitcointalk.org. Hence your indicator has now become dilluted. Possibly even worthless at this point to predict market moves based on "bulls being euphoric".
on log scale I get 0.8302335879 as the correlation coefficient, which is pretty decent
That's an extremely high correlation......ridiculously high. Wow.
Yep. That's what I keep telling people, but nobody gets it: Bitcoin is a risk asset. It's not a deflation hedge and an inflation hedge at the same time. It cannot be both. I heard the same arguments about gold but it's finally really starting to crack with the emerging deflationary pressures. It "sounds logical" that Bitcoin would be a disaster hedge, but actual historical trading activity clearly identifies it as a risk asset. That's why it broke out in a parabolic move as stocks made record highs, not while stocks were falling - i.e. people buy bitcoins when they're euphoric, not when they're fearful
Bear rally in progress now in both markets IMO... this likely will go higher but the point here is that it should eventually end without making a new ATH in either market. Positive seasonals have been kicking in. Futures down 5 point atm but it seems unlikely that the push higher is over quite yet as the retracement on the spx has been too small. Proly a good opportunity to get more shorts on will present itself soon, and we have a nice ATH to use as a stop level
The next move down in the spx should be much bigger, and my assumption here is that bitcoin will go down with it. This is just the very, very beginning. We have so much furthur down to go
more jpg less text 
on log scale I get 0.8302335879 as the correlation coefficient, which is pretty decent
That's an extremely high correlation......ridiculously high. Wow.
Very interesting. I assumed it was non-correlated but I can see that there are reasons that it would be correlated. Can I ask you what level of positive correlation you found? I have been meaning to do this but haven't found time to manually account for monthly BTC time series.
on log scale I get 0.8302335879 as the correlation coefficient, which is pretty decent
I'm still holding short on the sp500, so far that position has worked out very well. Btw I finally ran a real multi-year correlation study on sp500 and bitcoin in bloomberg software and it came out positive... No surprise here as that's exactly what I've noticed since the earliest days of bitcoin (yet for some reason people argued angrily against the notion that stocks and bitcoin could possibly be correlated! I'll give you a hint though: they are because they're both risk assets and are driven by the same social cycles of greed and fear. It's all psychology...)
I need to rerun it though on detrended data
Enjoy,
BA
I need to rerun it though on detrended data
Enjoy,
BA
Very interesting. I assumed it was non-correlated but I can see that there are reasons that it would be correlated. Can I ask you what level of positive correlation you found? I have been meaning to do this but haven't found time to manually account for monthly BTC time series.
I found that they really interested in bubble growth. They do their best to not allow panic sells.
Exactly.
divergences
However porn for bulls should look like that
It could happen... We have positive seasonals until early may
But i agree $50 will certainly be broken in the next decline, whenever that begins. IMO once the PPI hits strongly negative territory and USD deflation really heats up we're going to see some awesome fireworks across many markets, and this will be very profitable for those on the right side of things.
I'm still holding short on the sp500, so far that position has worked out very well. Btw I finally ran a real multi-year correlation study on sp500 and bitcoin in bloomberg software and it came out positive... No surprise here as that's exactly what I've noticed since the earliest days of bitcoin (yet for some reason people argued angrily against the notion that stocks and bitcoin could possibly be correlated! I'll give you a hint though: they are because they're both risk assets and are driven by the same social cycles of greed and fear. It's all psychology...)
I need to rerun it though on detrended data
Enjoy,
BA
However porn for bulls should look like that
You say a 'break down of $50 should happen', what does this mean ?
It does mean that correction very oftenly, if not said, always, walk on wave 3 territory, which is below $50 USD/BTC. 
While I am anticipating a break in the price, I think speculation is still too strong to get us down to 50, or even 60 this time. It would take some severe dumping to get us there.
If we DO touch 50, things could get even uglier.
If we DO touch 50, things could get even uglier.
TA does account everything. Good eyes to read required.
I interpret with probability 80% that that was a daily sma20 (middle BB) retest and try to quit from negative territory. And it is failing.
In anyway, break down of $50 should happen, as it was start of wave 5 off 9.77 low, so it should be broken down by correction.
I interpret with probability 80% that that was a daily sma20 (middle BB) retest and try to quit from negative territory. And it is failing.
In anyway, break down of $50 should happen, as it was start of wave 5 off 9.77 low, so it should be broken down by correction.
Lucif, I appreciate your posts and it's obvious you put alot of work into them.
I'm a little confused by something though.
You say a 'break down of $50 should happen', what does this mean ?
Is it a reduction from the current price by $50 suggesting a target of $70 based on the current price of approximately $120 or a 'breakdown' back to the $50 'double bottom' we saw this week ?
He said "here she comes, sell sell sell" but he will confirm later.
TA does account everything. Good eyes to read required.
I interpret with probability 80% that that was a daily sma20 (middle BB) retest and try to quit from negative territory. And it is failing.
In anyway, break down of $50 should happen, as it was start of wave 5 off 9.77 low, so it should be broken down by correction.
I interpret with probability 80% that that was a daily sma20 (middle BB) retest and try to quit from negative territory. And it is failing.
In anyway, break down of $50 should happen, as it was start of wave 5 off 9.77 low, so it should be broken down by correction.
TA does not account for external events, like DDoSes or Gox playing up.
However, do you see the last 2 day's price action as a double top reversal ?
However, do you see the last 2 day's price action as a double top reversal ?
Jump to: