Topic: Yet another analyst :) - page 51. (Read 269580 times)

Hehe

WOOT, more cheeeep coinzzez!!!!

Hourly SMA50, the base of rallies since first $50 hit, failing to hold. And zigzags... They are everywhere.



As well as daily sma20, the border of bollinger negative territory. No breakout.

Panic? Hehe. Two valued exchanges were suffered from bank attack.

I am surprised that panic wave delayed.

+1

The price wasn't decreasing. The only reason it will decrease now is because of panic. The low volume exchanges make people think gox will follow and go down in price, so it does.

Bubble or not, gox creates more selling then there would be otherwise.

nope. gox codes don't work anymore to return fiat back where coins were bought.

He's right though !

as soon as gox goes back up people are just gonna buy a bunch from btc-e and bitstamp and sell at mtgox till we even out.

I found that they really interested in bubble growth. They do their best to not allow panic sells.

Gox down for 2 hours. Looks like they do it each time of plunge. But we know the truth from other exchanges

btce


bitstamp

Um, only one other time? The one you are talking about, the 2011 bubble, is obviously the closest comparison we have to choose from. So yea, it happened twice, I would expect something similar to happen again. Though in 2011 it took some 18 months to make the full retracement to $2 (to just higher than the $1/$1.10 previous top), today in 2013 the full retracement to $50 (just higher than the $32/$30 previous top) obviously happened much quicker (assuming $50 was bottom).

But regardless, who could know, for sure, what would happen this time? Or even what is likely? For a player big enough to come in and control a significant portion of the market, they would have to be sure that they can get players to follow who are even bigger.

By the way, I only call the immediate bounces after crashes "dead cat bounce". Upward movements that break a downward trend are something else. They are reversals, like bitcoin got at $2. There are also just upward volatility bursts, which is what what we would have called the bounce up from $2 if it had turned back down at $10 or $20 instead of making an all-time-high at $32. So you can't truly know the difference between a long-term trend reversal and an upward volatility burst, until it continues on to set new highs.

Look at the conventional markets. Stocks have bubbles, corrections, and then growth cycles which follow. The ones which don't have subsequent growth cycles, they get kicked off the NYSE and go to the OTCBB, become penny stocks, and (usually) die.



Yes, but how do you know that was a short-term peak or a mid/long-term peak? A growing price will drive more news and interest. Its hard to say which direction the market will play out, it could happen in 2 months or it could take 2 years. The closest example we have for comparison is the one other example in bitcoin history, the 2011-2013 example.

For now, yes. But it's still higher than all of March, where most of the growth occurred. If it sustained the amount of interest at that peak the price would skyrocket.

Google trends confirms that the interest in bitcoin has peaked.

I don't know much about any forms of chart analysis, but I have been following this thread for a while and enjoying the information, and discussion very much!

This question came to me after Lucif's last update, and then immediately remembering how many people were shouting "dead cat bounce" after the first crash from the 30+ ATH last year whenever the market had some large oscillations. To those of you who look at these charts all the time, in your experience how many times have you seen something like the first "bubble" and then what looks to be a "dead cat bounce" followed by gradual recovery and then another huge upswing?

Basically, I was always under the impression that a bubble followed by d.c.b. is always followed by death, and that the recovery and second large movement basically rules out the suggested death. In which case we just had an excessive rally, and partial correction hopefully both being respectively somewhat higher and lower than where the market overall wants to be right now.

That's at least my inexperienced view on things as we stand now. 

It might hold up for a few more days... Friday's A/D on the s&p was quite strong

But i agree longer term this is a bear rally

So. Unless it will close success above daily BB and survives there for couple of candles, my sentiment is like that

However candle pattern is very similar to 2011. At that time correction candle also closed above BB.

Green soldier + shooting star + doji.

2011


now

Howdy. Did you miss me?  I really tired from rally off 9.77 low, so I decided keep away from daily trading during this drop/correction or whatever.

But here is another bunch of information. But, for first - disclaimer.

To newcomers: I don't give advices. This information is thrown away by me only to take a look at it from 3rd person and make right decision. I don't share my decisions, except rare case of quit from rally at $250 as it was high emotional background and i couldn't take anymore. So none of anything above or below can be considered as trading advice. It just a bunch of info to take look at when I make decision.

Bulls. Good news is that price is about to close above weekly BB.



Like I said at beginning of april, bullish resolution should looks like that



Bears. However I still considering daily zigzag to $40 can be in development.



And very pronounced, almost linear volume divergence.



Neutral. Price trying to escape from negative deviation zone which is bordered by daily 20 sma. Lets see whether it will.



And also from envelops. Current level is highly important for further prediction.

I really like people that take data, interpret it to their best and then share without saying THIS WILL HAPPEN. Just present what THEY think the outcome is.

Did lucif said anywhere: "follow me, sheeps, 'cause this will happen next!" ?

+1

The data helps make guided decisions.

In my limited experience the figures don't account for emotion. Therefore, I would argue that if you combine a healthy dose of TA with a healthy dose of emotional analysis of the market - you might be on to something.