Topic: Yet another worse scenario a head of BTC (Read 830 times)

I think it's safe to say that the price hovering between $4000-$6000 is actually a solid range considering how we haven't anything going on right now, but even this "low" range is very hard to maintain.

Realistically speaking I don't think we're done with $3xxx levels yet. If you look back at past increases, there has always been some sort of a pullback, and I think that we're due for one after being rejected around the $4300 mark.

The only 'good' thing about the recent increase is that people wake up happy, the bad thing however is that it forms a solid counter opportunity when it comes to shorting people's excitement. We'll see what happens.

I think we will move between the area of 4000$ to 6000$ for almost 6 months and will break out in the last quarter of this year. There is not much buying momentum which can take us straight up. It will be more of a slow movements for the next few months. You can call it a consolidation phase.

you are right, at this moment , almost everything points out to the end to this bear market, the bigger picture suggest so> https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-bottomed-out-ta-analysis-5088650  but it's wiser to be prepared for when things go south.

It has fall into a support area but it is currently recovery.  I strongly believe that this time around bitcoin is about to come out of the oversold area and the volume indicators are showing sign of bullish momentum now.  I think we are better now than when bitcoin was completely down in December last year.

I do not think you really understand how these support lines come to existence, you talk about 2000+ being a support, what is a good reason for anyone to buy bitcoin at 2500$ for example?  support lines are price areas where there is a strong physiological history of people buying at the area.

if the current support area is to be broken, i personally will short bitcoin, never going to long it until i see 1900$ or 3000$ again, it's only logical that you keep your SL closer to where price is likely to oppose.

if bitcoin drops below 2800$, the probability of it going to 1900$ is much higher than going back up to 3100$, from a trading stand point, it only makes sense that you short btc at 2800 with SL at 3200$ and TP at 1900$ , as oppose of buying at nobody's land below a major resistance.

look at the chart, when btc fell below 6k, where did it stop ? where are the new support lines you talking about? it only stopped right at a previous support, and if it falls from here, chances are it's only going to stop at the next existing support, it's text book really just watch the chart, history repeats itself most of the time, while anything thing can happen and price can retrace at any point and time, i still suggest that you don't try to beat the odds because they will beat you harder.

People do not realize that support lines could change at any given moment. Right now, we see the 3000+ as a good support and the next big support at 1000 dollars, well guess what that is because people think price will stay above 3000 and do not tend to support anything less and that is why anything under 3000 looks like it could have a freefall affect.

However, even tough I think it will probably never happen but if price goes under 3000 one day and reaches to 2900 or even 2700 levels we will see the support lines change drastically, instead of 3000 levels of good support we will have 2000+ of good support. Support lines at 1900 are useless right now so there is no need for them toe exist but if the price goes down than the support would go down as well and create a good support line there.

I  kind of agree with the second comment dude. Ta's will be hard pressed to make decent predictions in a short time when fluctuations can be very sharp. And there's very little data to base your ta's from compared to being able to observe the long term movement of a certain coin.

I was nodding my head "yes" through that whole post.

It's not like TA = science. Markets can't be studied empirically because there are too many variables that can affect supply and demand. We obviously can't isolate all those variables.

What we can do is identify chart setups/structures that seems to reproduce results over and over. Then we can backtest strategies that exploit that. That creates expected value. It's not science, it's just leveraging statistical probability within a given margin of error.

That's why like you said, you can have a winrate less than 50% and still be a profitable trader. You just have to understand the probabilities and risk/reward setups, and most people just don't understand that stuff at all. They think it's all black-and-white. They make a few horrible trades that experienced traders would never enter in the first place, and then they curse TA over it.

If there is less retail presence in the market (and thus less spontaneous buying/selling), which is the case right now, the algos control the market and TA is your best friend. I was dismissing TA as well, but no longer do so because it actually turns out to work to a larger degree.

We frequently see these attempts, but they remain exactly that, attempts. Bots thus far have nicely bought up or sold down potential structure breaks, and we have seen it happen today as well. People with tight stops are getting rekt when this happens, but that's their own fault. You should know that in a market lacking liquidity these things will happen, especially at current stage with how extremely thin the books are.

I think it's rather a waste of time trying to explain to someone who doesn't know what TA is that it actually works.

the problem that i seem to find with most of those people is that- they think TA is purely numeric based, something like physics or math that can't go wrong, if 1+1 = 2 today, then it has to be same the next day,thinking of it this way indeed leads to not believe in it, specially after making or seeing a few bad calls that end up in a loss, when you expect something to work 100% of the time, the moment it does not work is the moment you stop believing in it.

however if you think of TA of more like a physiological based analysis, where you try to predict based on previous actions of market decision makers, of where the majority of the money is likely headed to at x point.

after all , trading as a concept is nothing but gambling with slightly above 50% probability of success. actually with proper capital and risk management, even at 50% success ratio you end up making money, but these people don't want to learn, they rather buy bitcoin at 15k and blame the whales!. it's easier that way indeed.

i feel the opposite. anything below the 1-hour charts is noise to me. long terms charts are actually analyzable. there is some inherent logic to this: higher timeframes dampen volatility. when mr. itchyfingers market buys 500 BTC it really messes with the short term charts. but on the weekly/monthly charts you hardly notice it. that's why you can recognize the real moves on the higher timeframe charts. they separate the signal from noise.

Using technical analysis or not, it would just vary on a certain investor or trader on what he will use as long we can able to benefit on such movements.For long term aspects

I don't see for TA to be necessary but its still applicable if youd wanted to use it. TA are good for short active trades where you do always aim for entry and exit points.

As we prepared for that changes and basically we do strategies to follow what is happening in the market.
Yes, we do agree TA is very important and many of us were still not relying on it. I know we have different understanding with the market flows and its  volatile being, and the way we adopt the system.

On the cryptocurrency market, technical analysis can be useful only in short periods of time (hours, days). Unfortunately, it does not work if we apply it in longer periods.

The "whale" factor is mainly just a function of low liquidity. There are many volatile, low liquidity markets out there. Bitcoin isn't the only market that trades that way.

When support lines get broken, panic occurs and downtrends are triggered. You make a good case for using TA (so one can identify those times when price will continue falling).

IMO you are relying too much on tech analysis. Bitcoin is not a Forex and the market is driven by many other factors than pure tech-fundamental analysis. Every whale could break lines in any point and you will be in panic what happens. I prefer to scalp on MA and leave the big game to the big boys.

Lots of people were buying at 12k , as well as 6k. i am only willing to think they are not "happy now" missing the chance of doubling their coins, same thing will happen if we drop to 1k, when people who sell now will load up 3 times btc than buying now.

I am not saying we are dropping for sure, but the chances  are there, even though there are more reasons for price not to drop from here. but you need to be prepared for that case scenario.


agreed 100% the lower 3k has officially become a bull zone for now, it only makes sense to long that area, however a break below the lowest low will trigger a good drop, regardless of the the million reasons why btc should go up from here, the ABC for any market suggest that it's easier to move in the same direction than reversing.

it seems like everyone is gearing up for a real massacre here.

honestly, it would surprise me if bulls didn't support $3k. maybe a little stop run below, but it's also possible that $3k is too obvious and eager bulls try to front run it. we've got historical pivots here, the weekly 200 MA, shorts are still fairly high, and we dropped with fast velocity. that's a recipe for a strong reaction.

i'm done shorting this market myself, at least until we've seen a solid relief rally.

Guys guys guys, we are getting very close to the bottom of this support channel, depending on the exchange you are watching it could be anything from 2600 to 2800 .  but basically we are looking at the high of 5th Jun 2017, which is also the low of 11th sep 2017. this is a critical moment for bitcoin. a break below with a full candle including the body will be the worst drop of this year.

possible scerinos : 1- a test of the 2800$ with a huge wick followed buy massive green candles to the up side with a fast rally to potentially 4k
2- a break through, panic, huge red candles.

depending on the shape of the candle ( price action ) you should know if you are selling or buying.

I am personally in short positions, i am starting to close my positions slowly all the way to 2800$, i might get into some long positions if i see a price reaction, in fact i got a few orders sitting between 2500-2700 hoping for them to be activated. but i will close with loss if the at least 4hr candle closes below the support.

stay safe.