Topic: Yet another worse scenario a head of BTC - page 2. (Read 830 times)

The more we wait the lower bitcoin is going because of speculative news, there is nothing that really makes the price go down aside from market decisions and supply/demand rules.

Right now, there are more people who want to sell and get out of bitcoin than people who would like to buy, actually not even "people" but more money sold than more money bought. It has happened too many times in a row and there is absolutely nothing going on neither.

Today it went down because bitcoin ETF that was suppose to decided on 29th of December was postponed and market reacted to it, well there was nothing that changed for today ? Why did it drop when something 3 weeks from now became 2 months from now ? There is no explanation but people keep doing this and market gets swinging from bottom to bottom.

the moment of truth is here, btc fell into the support zone.

I don't really think Ethereum has something to do with this bearish market, in the first place this is bitcoin and not ethereum. Even if those devs release a lot of ICO token, bitcoin has nothing to do with it. It is the market and the support who decides the price plus, are you aware of the BCH fork news lately? I think that's the main reason why everyone was in a panic situation now.

not sure what you are trying to imply here, the point of pointing further support lines is simply trying to predict a potential reversal area should the next near support fails.

Agreed. The $3000 drop in price was from the BCH fork/hash war madness that dropped the whole market into chaos - investors love to panic.

I don't see another major drop coming. It might, but I don't see any reason for it too. Lots of people are buying (like me) now that the price is so low again. Panic sellers are selling to happy people like me that are loading up. It may well sink a good bit lower than the $3400 it hit recently, but I don't see any reason for say another 40% drop or something.

There are weak supports even further down the line because if the price is closer to one support line that gets heavier and heavier over time whereas the support for something like 1900 doesn't need to be strong since the price is so far away from it. If the price was about 2200 dollars right now you can be definitely sure that the support line for 1900 would have been much stronger than what it is right now.

The point I am trying to make is that the closest support line is always the heaviest one there is and the further down it goes becomes weaker. Same with resistance, if the price somehow magically went up to 18 thousand dollars right now, it is easier for it to go to 19 thousand dollars however it is incredibly hard to go back to 6.5 thousand which it was just a month ago.

Trace thinks that this is being done in part to "kill" some naughty miner-producing entity. Guess, which one?
https://twitter.com/TraceMayer


Makes some sense to me.

The rise to $20k was purely on the coat tails of ethereum scam ico use case. If ethereum never existed I bet the last halving would have peaked at around $2500. Since ethereum's use case of scam icos has been smashed with a governmental sledge hammer, the drop for bitcoin may be severe (back in the hundreds?)
What. Is. The. Use. Case. Of. Bitcoin.

what are you implying, that anytime a legacy platform launches the price needs to see a major reversal? the CBOE futures launch doesn't seem to fit the narrative.

bakkt may or may not be launching near the bottom. if it gets delayed again, it'll raise a lot of question marks as to whether it was empty hype like all the ETF applications.

what exactly those higher lows that have never been broken?  there were higher lows by the tons that have been broken , and yet more will likely fall too.

I understand your point, but i have to disagree ( use cases, transactional ecosystem) have minimum affects on prices.

proof is, most of us are now waiting for ETF , and Nasdaq btc futures to bring the attention of investors to then raise the price, how on earth will ETF improve BTC itself?

the point that you do not seem to understand is that  investors buy just about everything to sell it for a higher price and not because they like it or they think it has a use case. if you look around you will find many things that are worth much more than their real value. but it's just the way the world works, demand increases price and that's all about it.

again i do not understand how difficult is it for everyone to see that Fundamentals as of today are much better than they were last December while price is 80% lower. this fact goes exactly against your claim that ( fundamentals underlie the market, creating demand)

the existence of fundamentals doesn't imply markets are rational. the rise to $20k was not rational. unsurprisingly, we are returning to the mean now.

you can't ignore that fundamentals underlie the market, creating demand (via use cases, transactional ecosystem, investment). why else does bitcoin have a long term uptrend of higher lows that has never been broken? the technicals don't just invent themselves; they reflect supply and demand which is totally linked to fundamentals.

That is one excellent analysis OP, it may never happen but you do try to prepare yourself for most of the outcomes. Although i would not expect BTC lower than 1000 i would expect it (by 20% chances) at around the previous official ATH (~1300), so just in case i have some orders there waiting. I think you have missed one factor; the new futures market. As with CBOE the great bear started, it may be the opposite now. with BAKKT the great bull starts. If the big boys are officially in to make big money thay will try to destroy as many as possible before that (old hodlers). So yeah i tend to agree with your theory on this.

Also another factor not put into the analysis is the oncoming regulation. I suspect BTC will "sell its soul" to its enemy (the state) in order to gain legitimacy. If this is true then with legitimacy you have tax implications that will most propably induce stability on the price (no more big candles). unless you have a well working futures market for hedging. and this are the pieces that we are seeing played out now. (this is just a theory and not knowledge).

Crypto has proven to do the impossible, so we can't rule out any price levels from this point, but we have to be realistic enough to understand that once prices move up or down people turn either super bullish or super bearish.

Overall, rallies usually tank back to where they started if it isn't based on fundamental growth. Before the $10,000 mark was reached last year we had a failed rally to $5000 which bottomed around $3000 which is the price it started rallying from.

Doesn't it look like coincidence that last year during the all time high the CME platform went live, and that now we're nearing the bottom we might again see the launch of another legacy Bitcoin futures platform?

Possibly if that strong support in $2900 was eaten out.  Anyway, I believe market orders changes as funds comes and go in the market.  There is also a possible scenario that right after that strong support is broken, buy order would come in.  Market is not stagnant like taking picture and it freezes there.  Every minute, market changes so it is too early to tell that BTC will go down below $2k . 

yes fundamentals are almost not important at all, this is not my own conclusion. if fundamentals are important then why did bitcoin rised from 3k to 20k ? was there any mass adoption ? any etfs? any real contribution to the world? NONE ! people got into bitcoin based on the rising price and only to make profit. the fundamentals have been positive for the past a few months ,more awareness, more adoption , rumors about ETF and almost everyone and their grandmother's learned about bitcoin, yet the price kept falling. investors do not care about fundamentals, they want to buy something they can sell for profit in the next day / week / month or year.

you tell someone to buy btc at 3k only to sell it for 1k while the fundamentals are all looking great ! nobody will buy it. tell them that btc is going no were and it's a bubble with no real use for the world but they will be able to sell it for 10k , they sure as hell will buy it.

as for the volume i could care less, for all i know price moves and respect major support/resistance lines. if you disagree then go ahead and post your chart showing us how will price react to volume.



indeed TA is not a crystal ball that will tell you exactly everything about the future, but it's funny to think that 1k is not possible, if btc fell from 20k to 3.5 why would 1k or even 500$ be impossible? where are down over 80% from ATH, another 10% or 15% from ATH is nothing much. i am not saying we are diffently going there, but it is very possible.

People will be panic when the price break at the $3000 and there will be a mass selling among the exchanges and makes the price to go down for deeper. It is what happens if the price cannot stay up to $3481 which is the lowest price of bitcoin ever. And if this happens again, then some people cannot hold any longer and decide to cut loss the bitcoin. But when the price can get down in less than $3500, then there will be any new investor come and invest the money in bitcoin. The primary support is at $3000 and still active until now, but I don't know if there are any down of the price, so it makes the price get down for more. I hope that there is a reversal of the price so it will push the price to go up to $3900-$4000 but the trend still down.

I guess it clearly indicates there are very less chances for the bull run, a long way to go guys just hold your nerves and keep calm crypto has different thoughts for a few more months. Don't sell your coins now happy days are on the way have patience and wait for your day.

Those who already buy some BTC are definitely holding and waiting for the right time. Worse cases happens anytime especially we are in cryptocurrencies which we believe that its value can't be manipulated.

You state that fundamentals are not important, but I believe that they are the most important considerations. For example, your chart doesn't take account of the imminent inversion of the yields in the US bond markets, or the probable chucking of DoucheBank under the bus. If you are a short term day trader, then the charts can help you to predict the moves that will be made by the whales to manipulate the market, but without considering fundamentals, and the external financial and economic factors, it is hard to get a feel for whale sentiment.

Another important fact is that you don't include volume, and that is relevant to determine the importance of price movements in my opinion.

you are making the situation worse that it really is only inside your head by drawing lines on the chart. so far nobody could ever predict bitcoin by only using TA and lines on the chart!
this doesn't mean $1k is not possible, but it means that you have no logical reason to expect that price or anything lower than $3.5k to be possible at this point.