Topic: [∞ YH] solo.ckpool.org 2% fee solo mining USA/DE 255 blocks solved! - page 298. (Read 1514780 times)

Ok that's what I was looking for

Thx for correcting me

If you run it for 24hours, the numbers come out to 97%, just because you have 144 chances on average in that 24 hours.

Thx for reconsidering I appreciate that

FULLY AGREE and I would like that too....but at some point it will become impossible as you stated before ....more hash power you buy you pull the price up


at that price you might get 100TH within a week....but if we want 500TH (I say wee but this would have to be agreed by all) then what do we do ?
lower odds ?
Increase time ?
Increase cost ?
or abandon ?

we all know that 500TH have more odds than 100TH......
but there again at what price ?


what I want to do is try to find a compromise in all this in a logical manner....that's what I called the sweet spot

Ok lets pursue:


total network speed:         518 Peta
Blocks/24hrs:                   148

That means:                     3.5peta / block / 24hrs            (518/148)

but each:                         3.5peta is about 0.0067 of the total speed (0.67%)          (3.5/518)
then each 3,5                   have 0.67% chances to hit a block within 24hrs that's less than 1%


are this right ?

can someone check if I'm not mistaking ?

Want to join a group
1 btc available

we have a different belief on what is gambling and what is not gambling.

if you play a 3 digit number and get paid 975 to 1 that is gambling
if you play a 3 digit number and get paid 1025 to 1 that is not gambling.

you don't agree with that.
 you said both are gambling.
you said you are willing to overpay for rentals.

I am not in agreement with that.

I would like to think both of us agree that 1 + 1 = 2

or that 1+1+1+1+1+1 = 5

If we could not agree to that math spitting the winnings could be a big problem.

So far you and I have not been able to agree on overpayment of hash vs correct payment of hash.
this below is what I think is correct

right now in this round

.0074 or higher  is overpayment .-----  bad odds
.0073 or lower is under payment ------ good odds

do you agree to this statement?

Im in if this does happen. Let me know

why ? did I said that i didn't accept your numbers ?

You called my logic a ''magical thinking or gambler's fallacy"
I showed that yours is the same.....in essence.....and past luck doesn't guarantee the future

Can't accept a polite adult discussion...??


I'm not deciding anything alone...just trying to explain all aspects involved....
because I truly believe that there's a threshold which makes it all more appealing or pointless

the decision is everyone's....and for sure you would have a word because you were supposed to run this....

and as I said before the risk will be always there and if explained well everyone can make their own decision



anw I will try to simplify my thoughts and I hope you will reconsider....

sure

but here again i came from assumption that many people here, including me, are renting some hash: 150,300,or so TH and try their luck even if the adds are against them...

but if you combine....the odds might increase...but the reward if hit would be lower too because spread among participants...

not going to do this.

Ziploc  we have different methods of approaching mining.  I wish you good luck bro.

Hard to figure in luck!! 

I'm still thinking about it but it's hard to figure it out..

so far I have this variables:


1- hash speed
2- time
3- cost
4- probabilities of hashspeed to hit block within a certain fixed period of time (now it takes on avg 3,3peta for 1 block every 24hrs)

they work together and

we want
-4 to be as high as possible
-3 as low as possible


but
if you increase 1 and 2, 4 goes up as well (like 3,3peta for 24hrs)
but if not enough 4 will go down (like 3,3peta for 12hrs) or (1peta for 24hrs) or (10peta for 10min)


then you might increase 1 and lower 2 and/or vice versa to keep 3 fixed.....and this also will have a negative or positive influence on 4


does this make sense ?
So far I have hard time to put on a graph

Philli


don't want to argue but if you take the things literally, you're gambling to.....because of the nature of mining itself....you might never hit a block...or 1 in 5 years which isn't possible neither because in the mean time with the difficulty and halving your INVESTING ODDS will fall.....or you might hit 5 blocks...


that being said I think if you increase the amount of hash and the time your odds are increasing....the point is at what cost....and what cost would be acceptable...

like I said renting 150Th for a day doesn't even make mathematical sense because on avg it takes at least 3,3Peta to find a block within 24hrs....


there's always a gambling aspect if you want to call it that way....but with a possibility to grab an important part of the network hash rate the odds are indeed increasing...


you're simply thinking ROI...but with solo mining it doesn't apply..in a pool that pays for every share yes...but not solo...




there always be some risk involved the question is how much is acceptable for all

If you guys are looking for more participants in the group, I'll join up to 1BTC.

yes I do and you are indulging in what is called magical thinking or gambler's fallacy.

look left  the order i showed you has yet to activate even though I bumped it to the max number .0073 that still keeps the odds in my favor.    someone is  just above me with an all no limit order so he gets filled ahead of me.

At this point I can bump to .0074 and win 3 blocks in a row  with magical thinking like you are doing  you would think something like oh pay just over the right price and just over a no limit order and thats why I won.

That thinking would be magical.  my think would be I never play at wrong odds and .0073 is good odds I will wait until the order above me clears.

better yet if .0073 is math in my favor .0072 is more in my favor I will lower my rental price.
see second screen shot.

in the long run I make money and you go broke.

in  the short run your way could be better.

the long run in my example my take 5 year or more to be correct.

but I invest you gamble.

my definitions:

 invest =  odds in your favor
gamble = odd against you

your ideas state you are willing to over pay and that is gambling.




so my sample order is now at .0072  which is odds in my favor.  and it also involve magical thinking of a different kind.

 ie I will hit the block while teaching you the correct way to play it. --- magical thinking may not work.

I paid .0072 a th sound rational investment thinking as the math is in my favor as I underpaid for the hash.

best of both worlds even if I lose.

0.3BTC is about my limit cause of cash atm

Jacob

same for
rented hash rate and time VS cost of the rental.....

and if you plot these 2 together I thing they will cross.....but maybe i'm wrong...

let me work on a that a bit I will check it out with bitcoinwisdom

It's all linear. No curve to better or worsen your chances.

I'm not just talking btc/GH....and not contesting your calc...

but at your target price it would be very difficult to find such amount of hash....



I'm talking:

is it better to have:

100TH for 3 days or
500TH for 0.75 day or
1peta for a day and so on



and


it's better to spend 1BTC even if it's above 0.0073 and get what you want from above..or
1 BTC lower than 0073 and get it in chunks of smaller hash....


In essence I would try to make a graph of
1 line ( probability of finding a block vs hash power )
2nd line (time vs cost)

Those would have to cross somewhere.....then you have your sweet spot....

and you start planning from there......how much BTC you need, How many participants, etc. and which odds are acceptable...


Like I rented 1,7Peta for 10min....but it was pure gambling and waste of BTC.....however I wanted to learn how it works and if it was possible to get that kind of hash and if it would be sustainable...



anyone follows me here ?

sweet spot:


hashrate vs time and probabilities of finding a block vs investment