Topic: YIFU IS AUCTIONNING? - page 17. (Read 22106 times)

Not bad if you can pick them up for 2-2.5btc. I am planning on picking up 2. Hopefully I don't get screwed.

I like your analysis, but I don't get this. Can you elaborate a bit?

Auction will not be over until 10/15/2013 (Tuesday)
This means it will probably not ship until 2-3 days later minimum.   On top of that you will have to wait another 2 days minimum to receive the item.

So you probably will not receive item until at the very least 10/19/13 (Saturday) or 10/21/2013 (Monday)

BTC difficulty is projected to jump at the very least 23.47% in 7.31 days which lands it on 10/17/2013.
Being in this business a while I have learned its always best to assume higher than 25% jump.   The average the past few months has been about 33% every 10.x days so I used 35% difficulty increase in my calculations.
So to be conservative lets say difficulty will jump 35% every 10.x days and power / cooling power will run 1000 watts/hour at 15 cents kwh (fees, taxes, etc averaged per kwh).

This means units will arrive when difficulty hits at least 255,281, 249.     The absolute most this thing will make before power costs more than it produces is 3-4 BTC.
Power costs will be more than it makes after December-March 2013.  

Historically, Yifu has always been 3 months late minimum on his delivery quotes.  I'd say this device is worth 2-3 BTC tops.  To add more questionability:  If you get a bad power supply or no PSU at all...then that will set you back another $60-75 USD minimum



jump   difficulty       usd/btc   ฿ revenue (excl. power)   ฿ total   $ total   $ revenue (incl. power)
1 (on 2013/10/11)   255,281,249   + 35 %   121   1.41843 ฿   0   0   127.88 $
2 (on 2013/10/23)   344,185,167   + 34.8 %   121   1.05204 ฿   1.05204   83.69   83.69 $
3 (on 2013/11/03)   463,454,302   + 34.7 %   121   0.7813 ฿   1.83335   134.72   51.03 $
4 (on 2013/11/15)   623,254,303   + 34.5 %   121   0.58098 ฿   2.41433   161.59   26.87 $
5 (on 2013/11/27)   837,084,523   + 34.3 %   121   0.43257 ฿   2.8469   170.56   8.97 $
6 (on 2013/12/09)   1,122,848,215   + 34.1 %   121   0.32248 ฿   3.16938   166.25   -4.31 $
7 (on 2013/12/21)   1,504,258,787   + 34 %   121   0.24072 ฿   3.4101   152.08   -14.17 $
8 (on 2014/01/02)   2,012,685,276   + 33.8 %   121   0.17991 ฿   3.59   130.58   -21.5 $
9 (on 2014/01/14)   2,689,571,101   + 33.6 %   121   0.13463 ฿   3.72463   103.62   -26.96 $
10 (on 2014/01/26)   3,589,600,133   + 33.5 %   121   0.10087 ฿   3.82551   72.59   -31.03 $
11 (on 2014/02/07)   4,784,835,676   + 33.3 %   121   0.07568 ฿   3.90118   38.52   -34.07 $
12 (on 2014/02/19)   6,370,124,480   + 33.1 %   121   0.05684 ฿   3.95803   2.18   -36.34 $
13 (on 2014/03/03)   8,470,143,472   + 33 %   121   0.04275 ฿   4.00078   -35.86   -38.04 $
14 (on 2014/03/15)   11,248,576,982   + 32.8 %   121   0.03219 ฿   4.03297   -75.18   -39.32 $
15 (on 2014/03/27)   14,920,053,582   + 32.6 %   121   0.02427 ฿   4.05724   -115.45   -40.27 $
16 (on 2014/04/09)   19,765,652,915   + 32.5 %   121   0.01832 ฿   4.07556   -156.44   -40.99 $
17 (on 2014/04/21)   26,153,025,076   + 32.3 %   121   0.01385 ฿   4.0894   -197.97   -41.53 $
18 (on 2014/05/03)   34,562,462,140   + 32.2 %   121   0.01048 ฿   4.09988   -239.91   -41.94 $
19 (on 2014/05/15)   45,620,640,886   + 32 %   121   0.00794 ฿   4.10782   -282.15   -42.24 $
20 (on 2014/05/27)   60,144,240,006   + 31.8 %   121   0.00602 ฿   4.11384   -324.62   -42.47 $
21 (on 2014/06/08)   79,196,252,193   + 31.7 %   121   0.00457 ฿   4.11841   -367.27   -42.65 $
22 (on 2014/06/20)   104,158,596,975   + 31.5 %   121   0.00348 ฿   4.12189   -410.05   -42.78 $
23 (on 2014/07/02)   136,825,638,680   + 31.4 %   121   0.00265 ฿   4.12453   -452.93   -42.88 $
24 (on 2014/07/14)   179,524,481,757   + 31.2 %   121   0.00202 ฿   4.12655   -495.89   -42.96 $
25 (on 2014/07/26)   235,269,523,357   + 31.1 %   121   0.00154 ฿   4.12809   -538.9   -43.01 $

This exact same scenario will happen with Cointerra and Hashfast @ 28nm. It will only take a while longer to get there.

Eventually the economics of mining will be so skewed towards "zero" that even 28nm devices won't be viable. Even lowering the price of a 28nm miner to almost production cost won't really help the matter.

As for those who think that it will level out, they are right, but it won't level off and taper off, it will just stay at a perpetual plateau where people who invested too much into mining will struggle against math to get their money back out of hardware. Selling to each other is one viable option.

Another option is to buy into FPGA's that can be programmed to mine coins not based on SHA256. But again it is a major gamble...who would use coins beyond the Scrypt and SHA256 variety? The money in an exchange just wouldn't be there. At best speculators with remaining cash reserves would put their cash into the exchanges.

Word to the wise, find out where the third generation Alt-Coin is going to be and when it is very cheap pump your money into it and hold.

==========================

Or

You could always build up a fortune of Bitcoins and speculate lightly and live/supplement your income from that for a pretty long time. Although that presumes that Bitcoin will still remain money pot on the exchanges in the next 2 years.

I am just waiting until someone ruins the alt coins by saying very unnecessary things.

I would be interested if I did not believe that I would just be buying my own batch II boards which I already paid for and someone withheld for months.

I'd rather you throw it into the sea. (save the dolphins or sharks instead)

I would be interested if tradehill wasnt involved, but screw waiting a week for bids

Now who's interested?

sad times, but new era is here

I might sell 7 of my Bees that are on crappy hubs... leave the 9 Bees on a nice 10 port with fan... shutdown the old ModMiner

makes it easier since my two jupiters are hashing over 500 Gh each  

Maybe,I just sold 3 BFL FPGA's    Hated too but the power consumption is too much vs hashrate....even sold my 8 BE's  

While I could still get some cash out of em 

I guess it is time to shutdown my ModMiner        I saw that it jumped my PC psu 40 watts when running at its ~800Mh !!

but it looks so cool inside my pc case

Yeah,any amount is profit right Sorry,but NO,to me its already a loss,due to diff rise,after only 2 months.It will only work with 90GH of Drillbit & Avalon 30GH of 5GH'ers I got coming 

Maybe 16 weeks at a 90% per month difficulty increase with no slowdown.  But looks like that is starting to level out giving more time of profitability. 

BFL hardware WILL BE obsolete in a matter of weeks,my 30GH'er consumes 130+ watts & earns .08BTC perday= 4.3 watts per GH   

Some new ASIC's consume(theoretically) .5 watt per GH,no way for 110nm, 65nm or 55 nm to compete with 28nm tech.You HAVE to go with the lower watt per GH solution for longevity,unless you have free power 

I think Avalon hurt more folks than BFL with thier delay in chips,no communication & his trust factor was ALOT higher than BFL.....ALOT more.At least BFL IS shipping,albeit VERY slowly(no better than Avalon,basically).

Plus all Y I FU had to do was order chips,recieve chips & pack & ship chips,how the fuck do you fuck up something SOO easy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Why the eff would I bid on something that is probably made from boards from batch II that should have been shipped to batch II customers instead of mined with for their personal gain?

He has beyond the pale burnt his bridges ...nobody will trust him with anything

He better hope that what he produces is a the friken solution to the fusion reactor of an ASIC chip.... as the guy is a scammer and a dog and is not welcome

To be honest If i had 1 spare life jacket and both Yifu & Josh where drowning ...I would give it to Josh ..lolz

I actually agree with this statement with one major caveat.

Avalon catched up to BFL (performance per watt wise) in gen 2. So if you make the argument that Avalons second generation is now obsolete....then the case is also made for BFL hardware.

Good thing Yifu is already working on gen 3 and 4 in parallel.

Question what is the $$$ to GH/s ratio for Avalon in gen 2? How does it compare to BFL hardware or current 28nm designs?

Too many people lost too much money. What is the word on a class action lawsuit?
There must be a few in the works.

IAS

We all knew Avalon's ASIC chip design & fab process technology would be poor compared to current state of the art, but people (including me) were interested in their chips due to the time to market advantage.

What was not understood was just how poor and low performing Avalon's design was compared to Gen2 ASICs from other strong design teams. KnC, Cointerra and other groups are now coming out with designs that render anything Avalon is offering completely obsolete, even Avalon's gen2 is behind by a wide margin.

I think Avalon might be out of the game soon, it makes little sense to buy an Avalon based system at any price due to their higher Watts/GH requirements. Avalon self mining with their own gen2 might not be very profitable either. If that is the case where does that leave them? Sure they made a ton of money in the past year, but did they blew the money on a Gen2 design that they can not recoup?