Topic: You want the bear market to stop? Here are some things you can do :) - page 3. (Read 1062 times)

i think it is good opportunity to invest here.bitcoin are more profitable and potential. it will increasing their price and make more profit. it will come back and turn around in future.

thanks a lot for the advice of the author! I think many newcomers will find it interesting to read about what an intelligent and competent investor thinks about the situation on the market

bitcoin are more secure and potential but now bitcoin price are fall down. i think do not need to worry because it will come back and turn around immediately. it will do something good for investor. in my opinion it is very good opportunity to invest here.

I just want to add. If you are a business owner, you should seriously consider accepting Bitcoin as a payment option and it must not stop there. You should offer "Bitcoin Only" specials for people who paid with bitcoins, because you want to motivate people to pay with bitcoins and not cash or any other payment option. 

Bitcoiners should also support these merchants and retailers, because they are supporting us. ^hmmmm^

I disagree with the last words of your sentence. "Mere buying and selling" would lead to more supply and more demand at the same time - in other words: to more liquidity.

Imagine you are fearing a crash and prices at the exchanges are beginning to descend. If you panic now and sell your coins at an exchange, you will find yourself "deepening" the crash because you take out a buy order and chances are high the price falls further down. If you, instead, buy something for the BTC, then there are three things that can happen: 1) the merchant sells the coins because he's panicking too, 2) he holds, 3) he spends them.

Case 3 (spending), in a "Bitcoin ecosystem" where you can buy almost everything for BTC would be always an attractive option, and it would not have a "deepening" effect on the crash at all - it would only make Bitcoin circulate.

The more attractive case 3 is, the stronger the stabilizing effect.

You are maybe right that the nature of BItcoin's distribution/reward policy (with fixed total supply) may have also a strong influence, but supply and demand theories still apply, at least explaining parts of the price movements.

OK, I understand your point now about "increasing prices after more acceptance". Yes, there is always a danger that such a "revert to hodling" could happen.

But if merchants offer davis196's "refund policy", then it becomes attractive to spend the BTC even in bull markets. You can ensure you won't be hit by a sudden crash, but you also will profit if the price goes further up - and then you get some Bitcoins back and the things you bought. And merchants would profit from high selling volume, too - so they will continue to offer these refunds, until the market turns to bearish again.

I can imagine this "scheme" to become a real alternative to hodling. And this would have also a secondary effect: As it's always possible that merchants sell the BTC at some time for fiat (e.g. to take out part of the risk) then there would be also more sell orders on fiat/crypto exchanges, mitigating the "FOMO" and increasing liquid supply. Above all I can imagine this to happen in the final stages of the bull market, when it becomes clear that a "mania" is taking place and sudden crashes are to be expected. A merchant with sustainable price policies would then probably sell as fast as possible, even suspending the refund policy until the mania has ended.

There's not all said, and maybe there are other effects, but overall I'm sure that usage would stabilize the price evolution - but because of the effects you mentioned, bubbles couldn't fully be prevented.

If 20% of this forum member using one of what OP propose then i believe btc will going to rise more than ATH . but i would like to add a point that if anyone do not have the OP criteria then we can help by spreading the word of optimistic in our real-life about future of BTC. More people aware of this thing would give a great outcome

Well the proposed is good. As a payment solution bitcoin should be used for. An online business can accept the bitcoin as payment. Though, the regulations of different country differ. But it is true that, using BTC is one of the most important thing to stop the bear market.

There are various factors that might influence demand and supply, mere buying and selling won't affect it. Also, if buyers are selling, supply doesn't really go up. Merchants accepting bitcoin won't increase demand, people have to buy something from that merchant. This is a highly debatable topic, and using the old-school micro/macroeconomic theories don't really go hand in hand with bitcoin, there needs to be a crypto-economic theory. Because the theories that I am aware of, are contradicting with bitcoin's nature if I am being honest. Its confusing too, to compare and put down a hypothetical scenario and find how the equilibrium is attained.

There are many more scenarios than that, I don't want to go more into it, because this becomes more of an educational confusing debate, and there'll be no winner at the end. Crypto-economics is really complicated, and I am still trying to use my brain to try relating them with the micro-macro economic theories.

What I meant was, people will stop using the refund back policies, there'd someother marketing strategy by then, and whatever happens, the community would go back to hodling again. Like you said, people were spending more in 2014-15, but when prices started to rise, they started hodling it. If ever, merchants, the more popular ones start accepting crypto, then the price will rise, at the same time, people will start stocking it, and sell later, and before you realize it, bitcoin becomes an investment again.

I really wish I could explain this using some graphs, I can, but not everyone would be able to understand it, unless they know the basics.

It feels good, that people are actually having conversations here. The spam is too much, but am happy that some people are at least bothering to reply.

I would like to add one more aspect to your amazing post. It goes really close to being a developer or maybe donating to the cause.

What about hosting a node to support the Bitcoin network?. It comes with certain costs and measurements you need to take, but you will be for sure helping the cause. Make sure to read carefully before making the decision though. If Bitcoin is illegal in your country you could get in trouble, also if you have limited data plan you could pass it since it uses Bandwidth, of course. However, if you have some spare Gbs a month, you could measure the data consumed and stop doing it for the month when it reach a certain limit.

The information is right here: https://bitcoin.org/en/full-node

The proposal seemed like very interesting.  An online business can easily use the bitcoin as payment. Though it depends on the country and the choice of its government and the regulations. Using bitcoin is the most important thing to stop the bear market.

This is a very good proposal and the best thing that everyone can do. Bitcoin should be used more as a solution of payment instead of holding it as an investment. An online business can easily accept the bitcoin as payment. Though it depends on the country and its governments choice. I think that, to stop the bear market using bitcoin is the most important thing.

If Bitcoin is used more as a currency, then there should be both more supply and more demand for it:
- Users (buyers) are basically "selling" their bitcoin -> supply goes up
- But they can only buy things for BTC if there is a merchant accepting it. A merchant is equivalent to a "buy order". => so every merchant accepting BTC drives up the demand

This means that the relation, at the end, becomes equilibrated. Bitcoin would simply circulate.


The only scenario where I can see supply going up without demand "catching up" by merchants and equilibrating it, is when we have a phase (e.g. a year) when Bitcoin becomes massively used as a currency, and then suddenly there are less merchants accepting it. In this case Bitcoin holders would be forced to HODL or to sell them for fiat, which may drive down the price.

But I consider this scenario to not be very likely, because when customers show a high "intention to buy things with BTC", merchants would view that as an opportunity to sell more goods and services. The only reason for a "massive merchant exit" to happen, would be when stricter regulations in an important market come into effect.

Sorry, I don't understand your point here. It's true that this refund policy would only work in bull markets, but in bear markets the problem of people hoarding BTC is less pronunciated (in fact, we saw more usage "as a currency" in bear markets, e.g. in 2014-15). In bear markets this "merchant policy" is better suited. Merchants could combine both.

jonalva

I wholeheartedly agree that I am a pessimist, but there's reason here, explained below:

Think about it, if people start using bitcoin as a currency, there would be more supply for it, since it has a high monetary value. But the demand will be very low. We would see the same blackmarketing strategies applied here, this time its only legal. And an economic theory/principle known as chain effect will occur here. Either the price will go down and the demand will go up. Or the price will stay as is, and the supply would fall down, causing hoarding, or as in this case, hodling, and demand will go up. Either way, price will go down, if mass adoption occurs.

This whole refund  bonus would only work in a short term, couple of years later(more or less the same), people will again go back to point 1 and become hodlers and bitcoin into an investment. Something that could really change the situation is, satoshi coming back. He is the one who would be able to make people realize what bitcoin's actual purpose is.

Of course I can believe that everyone of us is responsible for the things that are going on in this market but also I can tell if you will do those things it doesn't mean that anybody else will do so you will be at this disvantage position.

Through the points you are talking about and convey to other people so that they try to work accordingly but it is hard for the people of those countries who haven't yet legalized Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. However, they are also less likely to affect the market right now, so people who can should definitely try to help mass adoption of cryptos so that we don't have to see such bearish trend again.

The word trend was once that gave us a very big profit, i agree with you that this will probably be our baseline or worse $3000 . As of today less people tend to buy btc becaue many people already purchased...as time goes by the price will definitely be stable compared today. As btc will be destributed thoroughly ,which means that only few people would sell their btc because they can use it anyway in the market, and only few people would buy cause they already have, this may create balance which will result to the equilibrium cost of btc. I hope it will happen sooner.

@pitiflin: I agree with most of what you wrote, only that I'm a bit less pessimistic, it seems.

Only two short remarks:

Maybe because otherwise it could fall again into complete irrelevance, e.g. 100$=1 BTC? Then they would get poor from it

While you're right that a massive adoption would need a mentality change, I guess a massive usability boost (by easy to use LN apps, for example) can be a significant factor for that to happen.

And for the hodlers not wanting to spend their "precious" BTC that could make them rich: Have you seen davis196's proposal for merchants to give a kind of "refund bonus" in bull markets? That could end in a win-win situation (for buyer/BTC user and merchant), see my comment on it.

There are use cases for Bitcoin where it already really excels, but still isn't used massively. The biggest area imo is remittances (I have used it often for that purpose as I've a migration background). I guess spreading the word to use BTC-based services instead of Western Union and friends is a good idea as people can save a large part of the fees.

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For the interested: I've found a nice article in German which could have been written by me on exactly that topic:
Warum es gerade jetzt mehr Bitcoin-Nutzer als Bitcoin-Spekulanten braucht.

Resumed: Bitcoin's value uf use is tied to adoption and acceptance, so the best thing you can do to ensure that Bitcoin will be worth something in the future is to use it as a currency, test LN and spread the word among merchants and businesses who could accept Bitcoin.

I'm not afraid of any speculation in this market, even if the BTC will cost $ 3000 then I do not see anything wrong with it in the future everything will be fine. Especially on these speculations we can make good money