Crypto is based on trust ... Sure there are pump and dumps / scams etc ... But at the end crypto is based on trust.
Crypto market is based on demand and supply. In your words, when the
trust demand is less the price goes down and when the
trust demand is more, the value goes up.
when the price goes up people trust it more,when the price goes down they trust it less.
As more investors are coming in the
trust demand increases and hence the price. The supply doesn't change much unless there is a whale dumping for some reason.
One thing, I can agree on is that no math or analysis works in this market and really all that matters is how you benefit from either of the bull or bear run. Once the bear run starts if you are smart and buy some coins you benefit and similarly if the bull run ends and you sell the coins at the best possible time, you benefit the most.