Burn your math / investing / finance and economics books if you want to invest in crypto
Crypto value and volatility is based on human psychology ...
If you understand human psychology / sociology etc you will become very very rich...
Crypto is based on trust ... Sure there are pump and dumps / scams etc ... But at the end crypto is based on trust.
So when the price goes up people trust it more,when the price goes down they trust it less.
Crypto is irational /emotional like humans .It's a indicator of or mood.
That's all to it ...the rest is just Fugazzi,
Where is the tip? You've written a lot of words but no tip. Yeah crypto is irrational but the same as the stock market, as Newton said, he: "could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people" regarding the stock market.
The best way to make money in Bitcoin is just to buy and hold. If you don't have enough money to buy at once, just DCA, buy and hold buy and hold, wash rinse repeat.