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Topic: Your thoughts on when BTC will reach $1000 again? - page 4. (Read 10407 times)

hero member
Activity: 644
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One Token to Move Anything Anywhere
It just became totally aparent to me after that crash (I suppose we won't go much lower than the lows we have already seen, otherwise I might have to reconsider) that it hadn't been a bubble at all.

It depends how short-term you are talking. According to your view I don't think you can say that April was a bubble either. In fact I agree with you that Bitcoin has never been in a bubble - look at the log scale.

But in the short-term it is a valid description, basically applying to panic buying.

Also the first fall came before China bad news. And in my opinion (although it is just speculation) the double top was forming strong regardless. But perhaps we would have just kept going significantly higher.
hero member
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One Token to Move Anything Anywhere

Are we in a bubble? Nobody knows. Does it feel like a bubble? Not to me but who am I.

Not to me either, although in my opinion it is OK to refer to the rise to $1,200 in November, the rise to $270 in April, etc. as bubbles.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
A "bubble" imo is a positive price movement when there is nothing to back it up anymore.
You can get into a cascading effect where the price is driven sky-high because people are investing in it because the prices are going sky-high turning the whole thing into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Only when a person or a group, which have a big enough share, figure out that the price is utter bullshit and pull out (or no new investors want in) does the "bubble" "pop". Due to the fact that the price plummets and everyone already knew that the price was bullshit, will everyone start making a run for the exit driving the price into a crash.

With bitcoin it is hard to tell if we are in a "bubble". The price is based on a tekst string and has no usable value, this is equal to fiat where the paper itself has no real value. Is the euro a bubble, is the dollar a bubble? these questions are equally hard to answer. If fiat can survive bitcoin most certainly will survive since nobody controls it. Some virtual coins will therefore become strong like euro's or dollars in fiat-land and others will become virtual Zimbabwian dollars which are completely worthless.

It's all about trust and acceptance and only time will tell which will survive. As we know from historic events like VHS vs Betamax we know that it is not always the best that wins.

Are we in a bubble? Nobody knows. Does it feel like a bubble? Not to me but who am I.

You described the mechanics of a bubble very well there. In short, a bubble is when price is totally detached from real value (to the upside).

But BTCs latest movements on the upside and the downside were driven by positive/negative news, changing the game in a fundamental way. eg: China is out to a large degree = BTC is worth less now.

But there have been long threads made about that bubble discussion before. It just became totally aparent to me after that crash (I suppose we won't go much lower than the lows we have already seen, otherwise I might have to reconsider) that it hadn't been a bubble at all.

Most people on this forum (not you) think bubble means "extremely fast and high rising price", which is just stupid. Most people on here know about BTCs technical side, but seem to have absolutely no feeling for trading and economics.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
A "bubble" imo is a positive price movement when there is nothing to back it up anymore.
You can get into a cascading effect where the price is driven sky-high because people are investing in it because the prices are going sky-high turning the whole thing into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Only when a person or a group, which have a big enough share, figure out that the price is utter bullshit and pull out (or no new investors want in) does the "bubble" "pop". Due to the fact that the price plummets and everyone already knew that the price was bullshit, will everyone start making a run for the exit driving the price into a crash.

With bitcoin it is hard to tell if we are in a "bubble". The price is based on a tekst string and has no usable value, this is equal to fiat where the paper itself has no real value. Is the euro a bubble, is the dollar a bubble? these questions are equally hard to answer. If fiat can survive bitcoin most certainly will survive since nobody controls it. Some virtual coins will therefore become strong like euro's or dollars in fiat-land and others will become virtual Zimbabwian dollars which are completely worthless.

It's all about trust and acceptance and only time will tell which will survive. As we know from historic events like VHS vs Betamax we know that it is not always the best that wins.

Are we in a bubble? Nobody knows. Does it feel like a bubble? Not to me but who am I.
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 501
Question to anyone: What would be the most accurate way to judge BTC volume?

There's a lot of different sites out there to see the volumes on each exchange.  I like and use : http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/  It's fairly simple but does a nice job showing most of the major exchanges in the world.

Shows the 30 day avg price volume etc and also the 24 hour price avg volume etc.  You can see, for example, Stamps 30day vol is 956k, or basically avg of 31k per day for the last 30 days.  Last 24 hour is only 8.8k.

Remember to look at volumes before the bubble though, and then during the previous bubble and before that also, to give an idea of changes as time goes by and prices change etc.

Yeah, that's a great idea!

Although I have to disagree with you for the first time here, as this was not a bubble, because the price was moving clearly for fundamental reasons.

Both posts bring up good points.  What is considered a "bubble" and how were volumes effected by the bubbles?  Bubble is a very non-technical term overused mainly for the stock market.  We heard it for the tech bubble in 01, the real estate bubble in 08.  Many consider the current stock market a bubble.  And was the bitcoin jump to $1200+ a bubble?  China was jumping on board and XBT was getting a lot of mainstream press so there was somewhat of a fundamental reason for the price increase.  But more on emotion and new investors also.  If China didn't shutdown (or basically shutdown), would the "bubble" really have been a bubble?
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
Question to anyone: What would be the most accurate way to judge BTC volume?

There's a lot of different sites out there to see the volumes on each exchange.  I like and use : http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/  It's fairly simple but does a nice job showing most of the major exchanges in the world.

Shows the 30 day avg price volume etc and also the 24 hour price avg volume etc.  You can see, for example, Stamps 30day vol is 956k, or basically avg of 31k per day for the last 30 days.  Last 24 hour is only 8.8k.

Remember to look at volumes before the bubble though, and then during the previous bubble and before that also, to give an idea of changes as time goes by and prices change etc.

Yeah, that's a great idea!

Although I have to disagree with you for the first time here, as this was not a bubble, because the price was moving clearly for fundamental reasons.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
One Token to Move Anything Anywhere
Question to anyone: What would be the most accurate way to judge BTC volume?

There's a lot of different sites out there to see the volumes on each exchange.  I like and use : http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/  It's fairly simple but does a nice job showing most of the major exchanges in the world.

Shows the 30 day avg price volume etc and also the 24 hour price avg volume etc.  You can see, for example, Stamps 30day vol is 956k, or basically avg of 31k per day for the last 30 days.  Last 24 hour is only 8.8k.

Remember to look at volumes before the bubble though, and then during the previous bubble and before that also, to give an idea of changes as time goes by and prices change etc.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
My quote was essentially this.  Give it three years.  Bitcoin will be $10 or $5,000+ a coin.

Three years is much too slow for Bitcoin!   Smiley

Yes, three years is much to slow for BTC.

This will probably happen in 6-12 months.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
Question to anyone: What would be the most accurate way to judge BTC volume?

There's a lot of different sites out there to see the volumes on each exchange.  I like and use : http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/  It's fairly simple but does a nice job showing most of the major exchanges in the world.

Shows the 30 day avg price volume etc and also the 24 hour price avg volume etc.  You can see, for example, Stamps 30day vol is 956k, or basically avg of 31k per day for the last 30 days.  Last 24 hour is only 8.8k.

Awesome, thanks a bunch!
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 540
Someone posted this link earlier



Best analysis to me so far.
hero member
Activity: 882
Merit: 1000
I'm surprised by the bearishness here.  I have 80% confidence that by half way through 2014 bitcoin will be over $1500 and lets call it 65% confidence it will be over $2000 half way through the year, and 30% confidence it will be over $3000 at half way.  By the end of 2014 I expect the price to be between $5000-$10000.
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
I have a feeling we'll see this $750 range for a while - a few months - and a strong $1000+ before next summer.  That'll grow as more retailers come on board, until finally it pops and either bottoms out, or explodes to the 40k+ we're all hoping for!
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 501
I want to hear your thoughts on when btc will reach 1000 bucks again, feel free to share.


Here is a chart I made on December 17th. Before BTC fell below 500 the following day.

According to my observations it could be anywhere between mid January and June 2014.  Unless we hit another bull market, then it could take only a couple days. If that happens we maybe headed back to the moon.  Wink






Seems like a reasonable chart. But a chart that says we will hit $1000 again between January and June doesn't really tell me I couldn't guess anyway Wink

How did you come to your conclusions for the chart? Is it based on resistance and support levels or basically just random "angles" for the lines?
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
I want to hear your thoughts on when btc will reach 1000 bucks again, feel free to share.


Here is a chart I made on December 17th. Before BTC fell below 500 the following day.

According to my observations it could be anywhere between mid January and June 2014.  Unless we hit another bull market, then it could take only a couple days. If that happens we maybe headed back to the moon.  Wink






Seems like a reasonable chart. But a chart that says we will hit $1000 again between January and June doesn't really tell me I couldn't guess anyway Wink
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
Three years is much too slow for Bitcoin!   Smiley
@T.Stuart
I have to agree again ! Cool Cool
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
One Token to Move Anything Anywhere
My quote was essentially this.  Give it three years.  Bitcoin will be $10 or $5,000+ a coin.

Three years is much too slow for Bitcoin!   Smiley
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 501
Here's my prediction:

Everyone is expecting amazing results in 2014... like super bullish results. But guess what, bitcoin doesn't give a fuck about what everyone thinks. In fact, it would rather do the opposite and be unpredictable like it's always been.

So 2014 will start slow, very slow.... I think it'll take until March or April for it to reach back to $1000-$1200. The highest it will go in 2014 is between $2000-$2500. I'd be more willing to bet it will go down from that ATH to around $1000-$2000 by the end of 2014.

Noobs will think bitcoin has stabilized to this value for good. The people who invested expecting 1000% returns will be disappointed, maybe even scared, and start cashing out. 2015 will begin slow as well. Stupid fucks form Business Insider and Forbes will make articles saying "has bitcoin lost its fire?" showing charts and talking about how it's not the hot investment as it used to be. Morale will be much lower than it is now (way too many bulls currently, imo).

And then sometime in 2015 bitcoin will skyrocket to 5 figures. No one will expect it and it'll probably happen in a matter of weeks. Those who hodled will be rewarded. People will start noticing and bitcoin will start gaining hype again. There will be another 'bubble' when it reaches 5 figures but from there on out bitcoin gaining or losing $1000 within a few days or a week will be normal volatility. It will reach new ATH's of $20K-$30K in 2015.


I'll bump this post when time comes so everyone can bow down and worship me for being right.

Not a bad analysis at all actually.  I tend to agree with a lot of it.  I posted on FB under a friends questioning of bitcoin and then various friends chiming in.  My quote was essentially this.  Give it three years.  Bitcoin will be $10 or $5,000+ a coin, it's not going to stay at current levels.  Which?  I don't know.  But I like the risk to reward at these levels.  Save this post and come back in 3 years. Smiley

So very similar to what you're predicting.  Time will tell...
hero member
Activity: 644
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One Token to Move Anything Anywhere

Maybe, I mean what do I know. But I still think 2014 will be a good year for bitcoin in terms of merchant adoption... but I think we will see those benefits (more money going into btc, significant increase of market cap due to merchant adoption) in 2015. I also think there will be more bad news in 2014 due to governments and banks being scared, and this will cause panic sells and make for a bumpy ride in 2014. Especially because more noobs are getting access to BTC.

I think people will want to get in early generally speaking. And for every noob who invests a week's wages there will be people already in for a while substantially increasing their investments - I believe there aren't that many "all in" at the moment  Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1330
Merit: 1000
dafar consulting
Your timescale is much too long. Why would it fall out of the limelight now? This is tipping point so by 2015 it will either be nice and high (around $5,000 minimum I think) or completely out (which I believe is not likely). Just my black and white opinion there.

Maybe, I mean what do I know. But I still think 2014 will be a good year for bitcoin in terms of merchant adoption... but I think we will see those benefits (more money going into btc, significant increase of market cap due to merchant adoption) in 2015. I also think there will be more bad news in 2014 due to governments and banks being scared, and this will cause panic sells and make for a bumpy ride in 2014. Especially because more noobs are getting access to BTC.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
Making money since I was in the womb! @emc2whale
jan 3rd we will be over 1000 USD per coin
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