Topic: Your thoughts on when BTC will reach $1000 again? - page 4. (Read 10439 times)

It just became totally aparent to me after that crash (I suppose we won't go much lower than the lows we have already seen, otherwise I might have to reconsider) that it hadn't been a bubble at all.

Are we in a bubble? Nobody knows. Does it feel like a bubble? Not to me but who am I.

A "bubble" imo is a positive price movement when there is nothing to back it up anymore.
You can get into a cascading effect where the price is driven sky-high because people are investing in it because the prices are going sky-high turning the whole thing into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Only when a person or a group, which have a big enough share, figure out that the price is utter bullshit and pull out (or no new investors want in) does the "bubble" "pop". Due to the fact that the price plummets and everyone already knew that the price was bullshit, will everyone start making a run for the exit driving the price into a crash.

With bitcoin it is hard to tell if we are in a "bubble". The price is based on a tekst string and has no usable value, this is equal to fiat where the paper itself has no real value. Is the euro a bubble, is the dollar a bubble? these questions are equally hard to answer. If fiat can survive bitcoin most certainly will survive since nobody controls it. Some virtual coins will therefore become strong like euro's or dollars in fiat-land and others will become virtual Zimbabwian dollars which are completely worthless.

It's all about trust and acceptance and only time will tell which will survive. As we know from historic events like VHS vs Betamax we know that it is not always the best that wins.

Are we in a bubble? Nobody knows. Does it feel like a bubble? Not to me but who am I.

Yeah, that's a great idea!

Although I have to disagree with you for the first time here, as this was not a bubble, because the price was moving clearly for fundamental reasons.

Remember to look at volumes before the bubble though, and then during the previous bubble and before that also, to give an idea of changes as time goes by and prices change etc.

There's a lot of different sites out there to see the volumes on each exchange.  I like and use : http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/  It's fairly simple but does a nice job showing most of the major exchanges in the world.

Shows the 30 day avg price volume etc and also the 24 hour price avg volume etc.  You can see, for example, Stamps 30day vol is 956k, or basically avg of 31k per day for the last 30 days.  Last 24 hour is only 8.8k.

Three years is much too slow for Bitcoin!   

There's a lot of different sites out there to see the volumes on each exchange.  I like and use : http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/  It's fairly simple but does a nice job showing most of the major exchanges in the world.

Shows the 30 day avg price volume etc and also the 24 hour price avg volume etc.  You can see, for example, Stamps 30day vol is 956k, or basically avg of 31k per day for the last 30 days.  Last 24 hour is only 8.8k.

Seems like a reasonable chart. But a chart that says we will hit $1000 again between January and June doesn't really tell me I couldn't guess anyway

Here is a chart I made on December 17th. Before BTC fell below 500 the following day.

According to my observations it could be anywhere between mid January and June 2014.  Unless we hit another bull market, then it could take only a couple days. If that happens we maybe headed back to the moon. 

Three years is much too slow for Bitcoin!   

My quote was essentially this.  Give it three years.  Bitcoin will be $10 or $5,000+ a coin.

Here's my prediction:

Everyone is expecting amazing results in 2014... like super bullish results. But guess what, bitcoin doesn't give a fuck about what everyone thinks. In fact, it would rather do the opposite and be unpredictable like it's always been.

So 2014 will start slow, very slow.... I think it'll take until March or April for it to reach back to $1000-$1200. The highest it will go in 2014 is between $2000-$2500. I'd be more willing to bet it will go down from that ATH to around $1000-$2000 by the end of 2014.

Noobs will think bitcoin has stabilized to this value for good. The people who invested expecting 1000% returns will be disappointed, maybe even scared, and start cashing out. 2015 will begin slow as well. Stupid fucks form Business Insider and Forbes will make articles saying "has bitcoin lost its fire?" showing charts and talking about how it's not the hot investment as it used to be. Morale will be much lower than it is now (way too many bulls currently, imo).

And then sometime in 2015 bitcoin will skyrocket to 5 figures. No one will expect it and it'll probably happen in a matter of weeks. Those who hodled will be rewarded. People will start noticing and bitcoin will start gaining hype again. There will be another 'bubble' when it reaches 5 figures but from there on out bitcoin gaining or losing $1000 within a few days or a week will be normal volatility. It will reach new ATH's of $20K-$30K in 2015.


I'll bump this post when time comes so everyone can bow down and worship me for being right.

Maybe, I mean what do I know. But I still think 2014 will be a good year for bitcoin in terms of merchant adoption... but I think we will see those benefits (more money going into btc, significant increase of market cap due to merchant adoption) in 2015. I also think there will be more bad news in 2014 due to governments and banks being scared, and this will cause panic sells and make for a bumpy ride in 2014. Especially because more noobs are getting access to BTC.

Your timescale is much too long. Why would it fall out of the limelight now? This is tipping point so by 2015 it will either be nice and high (around $5,000 minimum I think) or completely out (which I believe is not likely). Just my black and white opinion there.