Topic: Your thoughts on when BTC will reach $1000 again? - page 5. (Read 10421 times)

Your timescale is much too long. Why would it fall out of the limelight now? This is tipping point so by 2015 it will either be nice and high (around $5,000 minimum I think) or completely out (which I believe is not likely). Just my black and white opinion there.

Here's my prediction:

Everyone is expecting amazing results in 2014... like super bullish results. But guess what, bitcoin doesn't give a fuck about what everyone thinks. In fact, it would rather do the opposite and be unpredictable like it's always been.

So 2014 will start slow, very slow.... I think it'll take until March or April for it to reach back to $1000-$1200. The highest it will go in 2014 is between $2000-$2500. I'd be more willing to bet it will go down from that ATH to around $1000-$2000 by the end of 2014.

Noobs will think bitcoin has stabilized to this value for good. The people who invested expecting 1000% returns will be disappointed, maybe even scared, and start cashing out. 2015 will begin slow as well. Stupid fucks form Business Insider and Forbes will make articles saying "has bitcoin lost its fire?" showing charts and talking about how it's not the hot investment as it used to be. Morale will be much lower than it is now (way too many bulls currently, imo).

And then sometime in 2015 bitcoin will skyrocket to 5 figures. No one will expect it and it'll probably happen in a matter of weeks. Those who hodled will be rewarded. People will start noticing and bitcoin will start gaining hype again. There will be another 'bubble' when it reaches 5 figures but from there on out bitcoin gaining or losing $1000 within a few days or a week will be normal volatility. It will reach new ATH's of $20K-$30K in 2015.


I'll bump this post when time comes so everyone can bow down and worship me for being right.

There's a lot of different sites out there to see the volumes on each exchange.  I like and use : http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/  It's fairly simple but does a nice job showing most of the major exchanges in the world.

Shows the 30 day avg price volume etc and also the 24 hour price avg volume etc.  You can see, for example, Stamps 30day vol is 956k, or basically avg of 31k per day for the last 30 days.  Last 24 hour is only 8.8k.

Question to anyone: What would be the most accurate way to judge BTC volume?

Yes and no.  Volume is a huge factor.  We're going up now, but on very low volume since it's holiday time.  But per the charts, we're reaching some resistance levels also and slowly breaking through them.  That only comes with people buying.  You can't predict anything of course, but you can make educated guesses.

I think it depends on the market state of mind. If people are in a panic for example then volume is important to consider but still difficult to judge. Volume with Bitcoin is actually very difficult to judge in any accurate way in any case. Looking at the order books is deceptive - there are full accounts without limit orders - and I don't think you can read Bitcoin in the same way as stocks and shares when it comes to volume.

I don't think most people are in a panicky mood at all now. But people wanting to buy in might get more panicky as the uptrend continues, causing a some steeper stuff in the weeks to come.

When will people learn. Trend, volume, it doesn't mean anything. All that matters is how much people buy. And that can't be predicted just by charts.

The current trend is too weak and low volume to reach anywhere near $1000.  It will have to be after another capitulation. So, probably not in January.

Thanks.  Godmode-trader Chart looks great.  I've never seen it before.  I am by far no expert, but it will interesting to see which chart is more accurate 2 years from now.

Bit earlier than that - we will at least scrape it if not break it in January

March 2014 sounds right to me too

Note to myself: buy more bitcoins in January 2014 

Here's my guess. US federal tax refunds start mid to late February 2014, so beginning middle of March 2014, lots of SMART people will start to invest in bitcoins. Note to myself: buy more bitcoins in February 2014.

Agreed again.

Agreed, agreed, agreed.

Thanks

just put it in a log scale and it will be ok.And it will be useful for month.
I personally think more comparable numbers are not needed .
Watch this longtime Chart from Godmode-trader.de
http://img.godmode-trader.de/charts/46/2013/11/d1170bitcoin2-18.png
The text about this Chart is:
I think Godmode-trader`s Chart is a bit "healthier" than yours.
you might Label your chart "bullish but healthy"

Thanks.. I was simply looking at angles and saw a pattern.

I should play with the design an incorporate some useful & comparable numbers. 

@Bitcoin-machines
I was just drawing a few examples to make my point, by comparing a fixed-in-$ price raise end-2012 with the same raise end-2013. I assumed you needed arguments to accept going to log scale, but obviously you don't

Consider,we are approaching 2014 and will compare prices in 2013 with Prices in 2014 so a log scale is more valuable
BTW :I appreciate your chart- drawings

A log scale sounds good. But I am not sure what you're saying.  The chart shows only activity in 2013. Where do you see 2012?  I don't know what you mean by a $10 increase.

I am only observing angles and looking for patterns.

From mid march 2013 to April 10th you see a spike from $35 - $230. And then it corrected itself back to $65. This is important to understand since this type of activity always repeats itself. In which it did.  We can see similar pattern between November and December but much more radical.

This chart projects a conservative increase in value over time compared with sharp spikes of the past.  It helps me understand what happens when the market spikes and how a good bull market can go into insanity very quickly.  

All I am trying to point out is that investing long term is the answer.  If you day trade then this chart may not help as much except as a warning to people investing at the top of a spike.

But right now seems to be a good time to buy. Especially long term.  But I think many people are waiting to see what happens after the Chinese new year (Jan 31st). After this date we may see some interesting activity.