Topic: █▓▒░-&lt; [ZPOOL.CA][BTC Multipool] The miners multipool &gt;-░▒▓█ Paid 925+ BTC - page 55. (Read 217685 times)

Quote from: joblo on July 22, 2016, 06:55:53 AM

The probability of finding a block doesn't change with time, it's always the same given a certain difficulty, so "staying on a coin long enough" doesn't make sense.
See "gambler's fallacy" for further explanation.

true if you play with fiat, a dollar is a dollar after a week, in altcoins your winnings usually drop in hours to the point where your bet becomes higher than winning in a 50:50 game.

And an LBC is an LBC after a week. If the graph was shown in the native coin it would only drop at payout time or when a block orphans.
Since the graph is displayed in a different currency the exchange fluctuations are added to the graph. Exchange price can go up and down.

Profit switching and auto exchange can exacerbate the exchange fluctuations. When a coin becomes profitable it attracts a lot more
hash. That more hash will produce more coins. When the coins mature and are sent to the exchnage it will put downward pressure on
the price. It can be concluded that will put a downward bias on time risk.

it works that way if most of the other miners ot that coin are not dumping, and it doesn't apply to lbry anyways because zpool has a very low percentage of hashrate.
and, again, probability is not affected by time, so the frequency of block finding doesn't affect the price the coins will be sold at.

The surge in new autodumped coins puts the downward pressure on price, The bigger the surge, the bigger the impact.

You mine coins when diff is low and profitability is high. When the surge hits the exchange (as market sell orders) it eats up all the
buy orders orders and pushes the price down. Since most pools use the same factors to calculate profit they usually switch in sync.
So it's not just zpool but the total of all profit switch autoexchange pools. Smart sellling can mitigate the effect but requires a
bigger time investment.

pallas

legendary

Activity: 2716

Merit: 1094

Black Belt Developer

Quote from: Drenaj on July 22, 2016, 06:05:02 AM

The probability of finding a block doesn't change with time, it's always the same given a certain difficulty, so "staying on a coin long enough" doesn't make sense.
See "gambler's fallacy" for further explanation.

true if you play with fiat, a dollar is a dollar after a week, in altcoins your winnings usually drop in hours to the point where your bet becomes higher than winning in a 50:50 game.

And an LBC is an LBC after a week. If the graph was shown in the native coin it would only drop at payout time or when a block orphans.
Since the graph is displayed in a different currency the exchange fluctuations are added to the graph. Exchange price can go up and down.

Profit switching and auto exchange can exacerbate the exchange fluctuations. When a coin becomes profitable it attracts a lot more
hash. That more hash will produce more coins. When the coins mature and are sent to the exchnage it will put downward pressure on
the price. It can be concluded that will put a downward bias on time risk.

it works that way if most of the other miners ot that coin are not dumping, and it doesn't apply to lbry anyways because zpool has a very low percentage of hashrate.
and, again, probability is not affected by time, so the frequency of block finding doesn't affect the price the coins will be sold at.

joblo

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1114

Indeed we have found 3 blocks and profit is more than lyra2v2 and other altcoins. I am mining with a GTX 1070 OC (190core-452mem) at the moment and getting 252 MH/S.

We need more miners to get better results, come join us people! Grin

4th Block arriving soon, don't miss the chance Wink

A newbie sharing wisdom with their first post? Not likely. Two of your three points are false. More miners, ie more hash, will
push up diff and reduce reward. And the next block is just as likely to be found now as it was immediately after the previous
block was found if you factor out diff fluctuations. A silly mistake to make just after discussing the gambler's fallacy.

joblo

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1114

The probability of finding a block doesn't change with time, it's always the same given a certain difficulty, so "staying on a coin long enough" doesn't make sense.
See "gambler's fallacy" for further explanation.

true if you play with fiat, a dollar is a dollar after a week, in altcoins your winnings usually drop in hours to the point where your bet becomes higher than winning in a 50:50 game.

And an LBC is an LBC after a week. If the graph was shown in the native coin it would only drop at payout time or when a block orphans.
Since the graph is displayed in a different currency the exchange fluctuations are added to the graph. Exchange price can go up and down.

Profit switching and auto exchange can exacerbate the exchange fluctuations. When a coin becomes profitable it attracts a lot more
hash. That more hash will produce more coins. When the coins mature and are sent to the exchnage it will put downward pressure on
the price. It can be concluded that will put a downward bias on time risk.

Drenaj

newbie

Activity: 8

Merit: 0

Indeed we have found 3 blocks and profit is more than lyra2v2 and other altcoins. I am mining with a GTX 1070 OC (190core-452mem) at the moment and getting 252 MH/S.

We need more miners to get better results, come join us people! Grin

4th Block arriving soon, don't miss the chance Wink

pallas

legendary

Activity: 2716

Merit: 1094

Black Belt Developer

Quote from: Spiffy_1 on July 21, 2016, 12:23:26 PM

The problem with lbry(if it is a problem), is currently we need a lot of Mhash to get it profitable. In a rolling scrypt batch file, you won't stay on the coin long enough to solve it when current blocks are found in 30 minute or longer intervals. To get it profitable we need to get down to about 5 min intervals so a scrypt will actually stay on it long enough to find it. Otherwise its manually selecting the coin to force it to pay. It's the same with sib at the moment. Both coins are incredibly profitable but we currently don't have the hash to hit it.

The probability of finding a block doesn't change with time, it's always the same given a certain difficulty, so "staying on a coin long enough" doesn't make sense.
See "gambler's fallacy" for further explanation.

true if you play with fiat, a dollar is a dollar after a week, in altcoins your winnings usually drop in hours to the point where your bet becomes higher than winning in a 50:50 game.

sometimes it goes down sometimes up.
and even if it goes down, you should bring block maturity time into account: for example decred needs a full day.

EDIT: furthermore, the average payout per unit of time doesn't change so your point is void.

I don't even bring luck probability where you need at least 2% of total blocks within a difficulty change to have at least average winnings(like in 50:50 game), but this is more for bitcoin mining where difficulty changes in 2 weeks.

again difficulty goes up and down.
in the case of lbry, we mined only 3 blocks in two days and profit was much higher than expected, and much higher than any other "fast block" coins there is.

jkminkov

hero member

Activity: 698

Merit: 500

Quote from: Spiffy_1 on July 21, 2016, 12:23:26 PM

The problem with lbry(if it is a problem), is currently we need a lot of Mhash to get it profitable. In a rolling scrypt batch file, you won't stay on the coin long enough to solve it when current blocks are found in 30 minute or longer intervals. To get it profitable we need to get down to about 5 min intervals so a scrypt will actually stay on it long enough to find it. Otherwise its manually selecting the coin to force it to pay. It's the same with sib at the moment. Both coins are incredibly profitable but we currently don't have the hash to hit it.

The probability of finding a block doesn't change with time, it's always the same given a certain difficulty, so "staying on a coin long enough" doesn't make sense.
See "gambler's fallacy" for further explanation.

true if you play with fiat, a dollar is a dollar after a week, in altcoins your winnings usually drop in hours to the point where your bet becomes higher than winning in a 50:50 game.

I don't even bring luck probability where you need at least 2% of total blocks within a difficulty change to have at least average winnings(like in 50:50 game), but this is more for bitcoin mining where difficulty changes in 2 weeks.

joblo

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1114

oh really ? then let's see if you succeed in enabling single-coin mining

Yes really.

Anyway my proposal was not directed to you, it was meant for Crackfoo, you know the guy who runs zpool.
I'd take his word before yours and he'd likely elaborate in his response, unlike you.

Speaking of elaborating I'll elaborate on my proposal. It is essentially a cross between yiimp and zpool.
Take the per-coin selection from yiimp and the autoexchange from zpool. That's what I thought (hoped) yiimp was going
to be in the first place. The main issue I see is how to specify both a mining coin and payout coin. Seperate ports for specific
coins is one way. A now defunct pool, trademybit, had both single coin ports and multicoin algo ports.
Their API, however, only supported the multi-coin pools.

It could also be implemented on a seperate server, one for the multipools and one for the single coin pools. The auto-exchange
and API are the missing features from existing single coin pools.

joblo

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1114

Quote from: joblo on July 21, 2016, 07:19:08 PM

I don't know what you're implying with that curve. Those kinds of drops are mostly due to exchange volatility and
orphaned blocks. The only connection to the stoppage in mining is that the drop is more visible in the graph because
there are no offsetiing new blocks to push it higher. I have seen this many times with many algos, some with many
coins. I see no connection at all to the yaamp SW or my suggestion for single coin pools.

ok nvm, more happy people in crypto - more profits Grin

just let me point out - it was 55k, then it became 32k - for me, not necessary for the pool.
if you enable somehow mining certain coin instead of autoprofitable one
such miracles in favor of the pool won't be possible in general anymore.
for single coin pools we have http://yiimp.ccminer.org/, it's totally different

That in no way benefitted the pool, they lost out on fees due to the lower mature value.

Next time don't bother trolling if you aren't prepared to elaborate, particularly
when you're so far off base.

joblo

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1114

Quote from: joblo on July 21, 2016, 06:03:26 PM