http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/currency/2014/06/could-argentina-default-on-its-debt.htmlAt this point, there are two possible outcomes. Either Argentina negotiates with the holdout creditors (since paying them back in full is all but impossible), or it defaults on its debt. Depending on whom you talk to, these eventualities count as two options or one; some argue that a default is inevitable, because even if Argentina negotiates with the holdouts, those talks are doomed to fail. Blitzer is not one of these skeptics; he thinks that if Argentina shows that it’s seriously willing to negotiate, the courts and the creditors will be obliging. “No one thinks a hard default would be in anyone’s interest.”
Payments on the restructured bonds come due on June 30th; after that, there’s a monthlong grace period—some maneuvering room—and then Argentina will officially be missing its payments on the bonds it has spent years trying to pay back. There are, in theory, ways for Kirchner to save face while negotiating with the holdouts. She could push for another haircut on the claims or angle for a lower rate of interest on the bonds in question; she could also request a longer period over which to pay back creditors, which would make repayment less painful in the short term.
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A few weeks ago, the Financial Times turned up a confidential memo written by Argentina’s American lawyers to the Argentine minister of economy and public finance. Dated May 2nd, the document details what Argentina could do next, legally speaking, should the Supreme Court deny its petition. At the time, the lawyers were considering a hypothetical, and brainstorming; now the document is being scrutinized as a plan of action. The lawyers wrote, “The best option for the Republic could be to permit the Supreme Court to force a default and then immediately restructure all of the external bonds so that the payment mechanism and the other related elements are outside the reach of the American courts.” This would mean reissuing the bonds under local, Argentine law, rather than on the New York market. This would be hard to pull off, according to Charles Blitzer and Anna Gelpern. But the tack is revealing: Argentina is desperate.
давайте угадаем каким механизмом им лучше всего это сделать?