Topic: .. (Read 3648 times)

Depends on whether you mean the day's high or the day's low. If you'll give me the day's spot high then I'll take the bet. I, honestly, think it will be close and just under the day's spot price. My thinking is this:

10% chance of collusion and/or utter bull---- -- bad news bears
50% chance of just under the day's high -- it is an auction, after all, and even if there isn't straight up collusion there are ways to figure out what everybody else would be bidding.
40% chance of just over -- over spot but under the cost of amalgamating on the secondary market
10% chance that God loves us all


So, by that thought process, I'd take the bet because I think the odds would favor me slightly albeit not immensely.

Note: I am fairly poor -- the bet would have to be modest. About half a bitcoin.

I think a more positive way of viewing the SR coin auction is the fact that, even if they bid a single dollar on them (which obviously they were required to bid much more than), there is more money overall backing the bitcoin. Think about it -- each of those coins have essentially been double purchased. They were initially purchased by the Silk Road customers who exchanged them for goods and then the same bitcoins were then resold into the market a second time via the auction.

It would be as though somebody bought counterfeit bills or securities (I don't mean this comparison in quality, just for the purpose of explaining the practical effect) at face value and then the government seized those bills and sold them for X cents or dollars on the dollar. Again, remember the bitcoin is more currency than asset (like a car) so seizing and reselling it just means there is that much more fiat that was essentially injected into the coin.

Thus, regardless of how the auction went off, I think it should be looked at positively. Moreover, less than a 1% stake in bitcoin resulted in a price fluctuation around 15 to 20%. Therefore, viewed through that lens, there is reason to be bullish in the near to mid-term.

Post Note: I am still wary of the possibility of collusion in the bidding process especially after the leaking of identities and, if that happened, a subsequent overreaction. Still, on the whole, things are all to the Jesus.

just curious -- what would you use as confirmation of the auction price(s)? are we actually going to hear from any official channel? and if not, who can be trusted to "leak" this info?

i would be willing to do an escrowed bet that the price they were sold at was higher than the spot price of the day they were auctioned off.

Care to put up? Or just shut...

my sauces tell me somewhere 800-1500

Sources say $789

What is the verdict? The final price on auction that is.

That's a great quote, replying so I can find this later.

+1 ... most government crap like this is supposed to be public record anyways when available. Barry's reak down was too confusing just tell me when the avg price was per btc

Right. There will definitely be a flood of information coming out after the auction ends. There is no way all of those people are going to stay silent about the process or what bids did not win.

People in the US are being bombarded by marketing campaign everyday. And being brainwash into thinking certain products are associated with certain emotions. Couple with easy money policy where consumers can spend what they do not have, of course everyone spend like there is no tomorrow.


 

+1, If a product needs to be marketed, then you don't really need it at all.

The secret to becoming wealthy is to simply spend much less than you make (i.e. save at least 50% of your pre-tax income) until you reach financial independence. Until then every single dollar you spend is another dollar (actually 2 dollars pre-tax) that you have to work for at some point later in life. Becoming financially independent simply means that you've gained enough investment income to cover your living expenses and thus don't have to work, and now are free to work on your own interests. Anyone who saves 50% of income for 20 years and re-invest that savings throughout, will end up with investment income that equals their spending habits well before retirement.

The problem for the vast majority of people is they've been told/taught to spend money as it comes in, largely on junk or services that they don't really need. That is the behavior of peasants who never expect to become truly independent, but assume they will work forever or until the government steps in with SS (which won't exist in any meaningful form for my generation, most of whom I expect will have to work until the day they die).

If you think this way, then bitcoins just become yet another asset class (among others) to constantly add your position to. Since you should be spending much less than you make there is no reason to sell and can simply watch your BTC position grow.

This is the main reason why many in the "middle class" or even "the poor" in most OECD countries do not get ahead. They fail to realize that the secret to wealth lies in spending less and saying no to marketers and sales people, rather than earning more.

A good rule of thumb here is the more branding and marketing, the worse the deal is. This applies just as well to investments as it does to day to day products. As for bitcoin I say buy and hold, the time to get out will come eventually. One good indicator as to when to sell is when bitcoin is heavily marketed and sold to consumers.

Even if we don't find out the sale price of the coins, we're pretty likely to get info on what some of the failed bids were.  So worst case, we know the amount that was not high enough for the coins to go for, and can deduce from there.

I imagine price would immediately jump with panic buys and short squeeze, but I think the euphoria may be short-lived. BFX long stats continue to scare me, and fall in line with Coinsight flair count (). I think traders and bitcoiners are overwhelmingly bullish, and expects a bubble soon. But what about retail?

Nope, not American.

Thank god I was born in Canada, I do however have a dual citizenship but the other country has even harsher taxes then we have in Canada.

It's real, valdy does it big. I love his pranks, but they are a bit disrespectful. If you like that though you shoudl watch some of Fouseytube on youtube... here's on of my favorites.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UmOCKFigME

Will we ever know the price those coins were sold for? Or is it confidential?

It seems we'll never know, that's too bad.

I totally agree, mostly because I was that guy at one point between 10$-260$ lmao, those were the good ol days. Luckily I picked up way more btc then I could have afforded when I started buying. Paid all my debts, made boat loads and still hold a "fair" amount of btc for the future. Hopefully in 2-8 years I'll be able to fully retire, on a yacht somewhere in the Mediterranean, most probably Monaco due to the lack of taxes.

And now you know exactly why 95% of bitcoiners who were involved with bitcoin 2-3 years ago, even one year ago, are still no richer or better off than they are today.  Because they had a chance to buy tons of bitcoins for pennies or even dollars, and just sit on them for a few years.  But they didn't, as soon as the price jumped 25%, 50%, or even doubled, they cashed out immediately.  Or day traded and pissed all the money away.  So stupid, many of them could be extremely wealthy today, had they just purchased a few thousand bitcoins and just held them.

The same thing is going to repeat itself from this point forward as well.  The majority of bitcoins will eventually find their way from the hands of the stupid and poor to the rich and wealthy, simply because the stupid and poor don't know how to invest properly and just want to buy some stupid toy with their "winnings".