i'm always talking about the halving, because it is the only thing concrete, that could have an impact about the price, everything else is just pure guessing and rubbish predictions, instead we know that the halving is something tangible that will happen for sure
What do you expect in the Speculation forum?
well most of them are baseless prediction, i respect those with good TA background that try to determinate the price based on the chart's history,
i guess blind predictions can be ok for short term, but any long term prediction must be done with solid bases that we know that they will affect the price, like the halving or a good investments, like the one of 9M per month
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/9-million-usd-per-month-is-looking-for-ways-to-jump-into-bitcoin-1105725If you are only going to take into account things that are completely knowable, then I advise you, quit bitcoin now. The risk is absolutely not worth it. If you don't take into account the slight possibility that there will be killer apps, and only look at how bitcoin is today, then I guarantee you, bitcoin will NEVER reach mainstream, and bitcoin will die a horrible death when miner rewards become insignificant and the system becomes easy to attack. Most people in the world already heard of bitcoin, they're not going to use it as it currently is, period.
Unless you're considering the possibility that bitcoin will be GREATLY improved, and there will be killer apps on top of bitcoin, just stop wasting your time on this. Bitcoin as it currently is cannot even come close to comparing against banks and visa and mastercard.
It's funny because you got it completely wrong. TA is only good for short term, when there are no new developments, if it's any good at all. No matter how good you are at TA, you cannot account for events in the long term that will affect the market. The longer term you're looking, the higher chance that some event will happen, whether it helps the price or harms the price. The chances will tend to 100% as the time gets longer. So to say that TA works for longer term while predictions based on reality is "baseless" is just laughable. TA is okay for day traders, that's why they use it for trading. For longer term holders, you need to take into account the potential of the investment, the developments that will probably happen in 5-10 years, or even longer, rather than to simply look at the current situation.
@the other guy: How do you know that the halving is one of the variables that have a significant influence over bitcoin's price? Do you have stats to back it up? Same thing with Greece. Most of the reputable people like Fred Wilson and Andreas don't think the current Greece situation has much affect on the price of bitcoins (It might in the future, but not yet). How can you prove that the little pump is correlated to Greece?
I don't think either event has nearly as big an impact as people are led to believe.