Topic: 100 bitcoins. Will I be a millionaire by 2020? - page 23. (Read 77417 times)

Which people are you referring to? If you're referring to me I suggest you read my explanations and rebute those points rather than ad hominem in this roundabout manner.

I see it to only grow as well.

Cause last time I checked gavin said all those issues with memory will be on its way to be fixed to 2mb or 20 mb i forget sooner then later situation.

Then again most people just think other wise, Im all towards that bitcoin is the only option or else what is?

Funny to hear BTC1000 mentioned. One could have already been a millionaire with that many, so I don't know why you'd be holding out now. Also, this number implies that Bitcoin will return to $1000 only to flap about in the wind like an old sock.



Yep, people have quite a "leaky" interpretation of the system.

Saying it's 50/50 has NOTHING to do with it remaining constant... There is absolutely no chance it will remain constant. The demand, not the price, I mean.

This is exactly what I have beef with. Sure, mining rewards might have a slight affect on the PRICE of bitcoin. I don't know how big a variable it is, with the thousands of other factors that goes into the pricing of bitcoins, but it is a factor. That I admit.

But there is absolutely NO REASON whatsoever, that reducing mining rewards will somehow help bitcoin grow. That is completely outrageous. People won't magically begin to accept bitcoins when the rewards are lower.

Even in terms of price, the halving won't necessarily help, again, because there are so many factors involved that we just don't know how big an affect mining reward has on the whole bitcoin economy. Furthermore, much of it is already priced into bitcoins, because it is a known event, not something that suddenly comes.

If anything, mining rewards might magnify the effects of demand. If bitcoin ends up succeeding, and demand growing, then halving the mining rewards will increase the price even more.

But if demand drops, as the mining reward halves, miners will lose incentive to mine, and the network will be less secure, causing the price to fall even more, in an endless cycle.

So mining rewards act as a multiplier rather than a simple increase or decrease mechanism.

well if it is 50/50 it's evident that it is like saying that it will remain costant in the end, you know...

but what i believe is that there are more chances to grow than to fall, because the halving will help us grow, that's all

Its only trend is to go up.

But, its just a matter of when right. So the millionaire thing can take another couple years down the road when we see no more bitcoins able to mine or something.

Imagine a whole country needs it to move their funds, and people need to pay a premium to move money. btw, when i say country i mean its citizens.

You aren't taking into account all possible scenarios, you are taking a default that the demand WON'T change, and that every other variable WILL remain constant. Which is completely silly because that's impossible. We don't know whether demand will go up or down, it's probably a 50/50. But we do know that it will NOT remain constant or near constant, that's just not possible. So to assume that as the default is silly.

Any change in demand will far out shadow the effects of mining rewards.

No. What YOU'RE not getting, is that there is money both going IN to bitcoin, and going OUT of bitcoin. For example, if everyday early adopters or people who lost faith in bitcoin after buying at the peak decide to completely exit and never come back, and sell $500,000,000 worth of bitcoins a day, and new investors are bringing in approximately $500,000,000 per day, the mining reward is hardly significant in changing the price, because it's such a small percentage of the daily change, probably a lot smaller than the daily variance.

Note that I'm not saying there is 500 million going in and out of bitcoin everyday. I'm using an extreme example to illustrate a point. We don't know how big a % of daily dumps mining rewards are. Because a previous investor exiting the bitcon economy should have the same effect as mining dumps, so what is the ratio of these things?

Again, all else being equal is normally a good way to isolate a variable, but in this case it is not realistic at all. But if it was, bitcoin would still not go up by thousands of percentage points by a few thousand btc a day, at least, it would take many, many years for that to happen. If everything were to stay absolutely constant in those years.

Yeah, probably.

no one know this, and this is way i'm taking into account all possible scenario, speculation if done right must be done, by taking into account every possible future of what you're speculating about

there are not more chances that the demand will go down instead of going up for example, same ratio, simply because those variables are unknown, you can't say that it will go down for sure like i can't say that it will go up for sure

but what we know is, if you do not consider the demand because it is unknown, thus you can't consider it, if it is unknown, it is evident that for every halving the price will rise, it is really a simple concept

People don't get that it doesn't really matter whether the coins are kept, sold on Bitfinex, sold privately, or whatever. The bitcoin economy as a whole has to absorb that reward in any case. Someone has to buy the coins. If the miner keeps them, then he himself is buying the coins. We can't pretend those coins aren't sucking something out of the BTC economy because if there were no block reward, he would have to buy existing coins to maintain his BTC income.  


Thousands of bitcoins do change the price in an "all else being equal" scenario. In a situation where we would be going sideways with equal buying and selling interest, the block reward breaks the tie and sends us lower.

In the first place, we don't know how much bitcoins is being dumped everyday, at all. There's no data on this. We don't know how many miners are holding, and we don't know how many early adopters are cashing out. It is quite likely that even today, miners dumping only makes up a small fraction of the daily bitcoin transactions, making it quite insignificant. After all, there are over 10 million bitcoins, to think that a few thousand coins can change the price by thousands of percents is just silly.

Furthermore, assuming that demand stays the same is also incredibly silly. Demand will NOT stay the same. The vast majority of the demand currently is for trading and speculation. If it's shown that bitcoin does not have traction with any real world uses, then demand will fall. Furthermore, because mining rewards won't be sufficient, there will be problems with the network security, further pushing down the price.

Again, bitcoin HAS TO succeed BEFORE the mining rewards become insignificant. That's the only way for bitcoin to succeed. Otherwise, it'll die out.

The only other possibility is if some companies/banks will use the blockchain as a purely B2B database type thing, and they'll invest money to keep it secure, without caring for the actual bitcoins. In this scenario, it's possible bitcoin doesn't go to <$10 nor does it go "to the moon".

what you are talking about? it is clear like the sun that if the demand stay the same and supply reward will be halved the price MUST GO UP, there is no other alternative, this is a simple logic

this is one of the worst scenario, where demand isn't going up, then you have the scenario where demand going up because of killer app like you said, and then the scenario where it go down, those are only possible scenario

miners will keep mining because their efficiency will be greater, this is a reason why satoshi settled the halving every 4 years to give time to the technology to advance

My idea that bitcoin can reach $1000 to $10,000 in 2021 is not based on the idea that bitcoin will do what it did in the past (i.e. have speculative bubbles). It's based on the combination of the daily mining reward halving a few times and the (proven) black market economy and remittance activity continuing their rapid growth.

Supply diminishes while demand goes up. Squeezed from both sides. It's a pincer movement.

If bitcoin can go sideways at 250 with 3600 coins produced per day, then it can go sideways at $1000 with 900 coins produced per day. And if bitcoin violently rejects sub 210 prices today, whereas it violently rejected sub $70 prices after April 2013, that indicates that bitcoin's non-speculative economy is rapidly growing. The number of listings and number of unique sellers on the dark net markets has massively increased. I keep an eye on these things.

So for me, $1000 is a conservative guess for 2021. It assumes that we just go sideways and everything else remains the same.
$10,000 is possible if everything goes "well" (bitcoin's non-speculative economy grows 10x over the next 6 years and the dollar loses strength).

The optimistic scenario makes your 100 BTC holder a millionaire. Of course, IF a bubble situation happens amidst the fundamental decrease in supply and the growth of non-speculative use, then the price can overshoot $1,000 significantly. But that's not what I'm counting on.

The stars-aligning scenario is where everything goes well for bitcoin (establishing a fair value of $10,000) AND the price overshoots. Then you could be looking at a short-term value of ... well, you can think about it.

But, again imho, when BTC is going up to 1000USD you will sell 10-20 BTC, then on 2000 you will sell again 10-20 BTC...etc

I think you could very well be a millionaire with 100 BTC. One thing you could try to do is trade the major waves, to increase your holdings even further - but please keep in mind that you may also lose your BTC very quickly by doing so.

Yes, there is always the possibility that a few million millionaires around the world will finally realize that all their stocks, currency, bonds, paper gold, etc. can easily and instantly be taken from them, and that bitcoin can't. But this realization is one that may not dawn on them in 1 year or even 20 years. It is such a terrifying thought that most people, even financially sophisticated people, don't fully acknowledge it. Or maybe they think they'll be safe because they have some money in the Cayman Islands. Ask Mikhail Khodorkovsky how safe his shares of Yukos Oil were. How safe his billions were. He had tons of power and political allies. He must've thought he was untouchable. Ask him where his billions went. If bitcoin becomes recognized by the worlds top 0.1% as the only sure way that they can preserve their wealth, then the sky is the limit. Bitcoin's price would be astronomical. But I'm not holding my breath. I think people will watch their wealth be stolen and their economies fall apart over and over because human beings are simply not very intelligent. So even if the euro goes extinct, they'll just create new government currencies and we will repeat the entire cycle again.

By this trend i dont think millionare but make good money YES

I don't think that buying from greeks contributed a major proportion of the current increase, anyway.
I don't like to extrapolate so much from a mere 20% pop, but current situation is quite interesting from many angles.
One-what does it mean in a current society to "have" money if such money durability and utility depends on some arcane negotiating tactics of a government that is not even in control of a currency, like in Greece.
Perhaps, we will have some kind of crystallization of this thought throughout at least a part of "opinion leaders" and we will see many more voices re bitcoin utility.
Things can go on from there.

The universal law of speculative extrapolation, LOL.

My idea that bitcoin can reach $1000 to $10,000 in 2021 is not based on the idea that bitcoin will do what it did in the past (i.e. have speculative bubbles). It's based on the combination of the daily mining reward halving a few times and the (proven) black market economy and remittance activity continuing their rapid growth.

Supply diminishes while demand goes up. Squeezed from both sides. It's a pincer movement.

If bitcoin can go sideways at 250 with 3600 coins produced per day, then it can go sideways at $1000 with 900 coins produced per day. And if bitcoin violently rejects sub 210 prices today, whereas it violently rejected sub $70 prices after April 2013, that indicates that bitcoin's non-speculative economy is rapidly growing. The number of listings and number of unique sellers on the dark net markets has massively increased. I keep an eye on these things.

So for me, $1000 is a conservative guess for 2021. It assumes that we just go sideways and everything else remains the same.
$10,000 is possible if everything goes "well" (bitcoin's non-speculative economy grows 10x over the next 6 years and the dollar loses strength).

The optimistic scenario makes your 100 BTC holder a millionaire. Of course, IF a bubble situation happens amidst the fundamental decrease in supply and the growth of non-speculative use, then the price can overshoot $1,000 significantly. But that's not what I'm counting on.

The stars-aligning scenario is where everything goes well for bitcoin (establishing a fair value of $10,000) AND the price overshoots. Then you could be looking at a short-term value of ... well, you can think about it.