Simply check that the site share count matches your program's accepted share count (which it should)
Shares are also generated based on luck - on average you should expect to get one share per 4billion hash attempts (2^32) - but a share is equivalent to a block at difficulty=1 - thus the same rules about random probability come into getting a share as for blocks.
The web site does not know your computer hash rate, so it estimates it based on your shares that are submitted - which is sometimes higher and sometimes lower than your actual hash rate.