1BTC is equal to 10347 dollars | Bitcointalksearch.org

moseich

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Quote from: NeuroticFish on January 03, 2019, 03:27:49 AM

I like the result, but I don't agree with the logic. You know that in math, if the input is wrong, the output will most probably incorrect, right? So "this is math" is not enough.
For example, if you make the same calculation for USD cents and satoshi, instead of Dollars and Bitcoins, the result is already different. How about that?

OK no problem.
1 btc=100 m satoshi
1 dollar = 100 cent
The total number of Satoshi 1 743 673 700 000 000.
Each outlet gives a capitalization of 10,316 ounces
Multiply by the number of outlet that work with Satoshi 14125.
We get 145,971,400 ounces. Capitalization Satoshi.
Divide by the amount of satoshi. It turns out 0, 0000000837148 ounces for 1 satoshi.
One ounce costs 123600 cents.
It turns out 0,010347 cents worth one satoshi.

fabiorem

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True, and thats why you should not sell.

People who are praying for bitcoin, who see bitcoin as a kind of religion, who think faith will make the price go up, are the most likely to sell. They are desperate and need assurance for not selling, so they resort to faith.

But this is a irrational behaviour. Your post is the rational answer.

If you sell now, you are selling to Wall Street.

NeuroticFish

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Quote from: moseich on January 03, 2019, 03:16:49 AM

The amount of 10347 is not a forecast. This is math.

I like the result, but I don't agree with the logic. You know that in math, if the input is wrong, the output will most probably incorrect, right? So "this is math" is not enough.
For example, if you make the same calculation for USD cents and satoshi, instead of Dollars and Bitcoins, the result is already different. How about that?

moseich

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Quote from: Barbut on January 02, 2019, 01:36:19 PM

I think that this predictions are nonsenses too, no one can say how much dollars can worth single bitcoin. It can worth $1 or $1M, if conditions are right. What I read this days on twitter is that experts who predicted recovery at $20k and even higher prices are now saying how they were wrong, nobody is an expert when it comes to predicting bitcoin price.
I was wrong so many times with my predictions about bitcoin prices, I will not make any more predictions, I will just do what market dictate, if its time to buy I will buy, when I think I have nice profit I will sell, and like that. Who knows what can happen in few years, main thing is that i`m open for everything.

The amount of 10347 is not a forecast. This is math.
And when the market goes this way, this is a forecast. Will watch.

Barbut

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Quote from: moseich on January 02, 2019, 12:25:13 PM

Quote from: masterzino on January 02, 2019, 09:12:39 AM

Complete non-sense. Statistical data and calculation algorithm... bla bla bla

The real value of Bitcoin (and any other product/service) is what client/buyer is ready to pay. Everything else is just speculation. Opinion at best. Too many people nowadays are taking finance decision on opinions, but facts.

Reading analytics is always difficult. It is necessary to think. It is much easier to jump in the clouds.
And when you jumped on emotions, it still hurts to fall.

I think that this predictions are nonsenses too, no one can say how much dollars can worth single bitcoin. It can worth $1 or $1M, if conditions are right. What I read this days on twitter is that experts who predicted recovery at $20k and even higher prices are now saying how they were wrong, nobody is an expert when it comes to predicting bitcoin price.
I was wrong so many times with my predictions about bitcoin prices, I will not make any more predictions, I will just do what market dictate, if its time to buy I will buy, when I think I have nice profit I will sell, and like that. Who knows what can happen in few years, main thing is that i`m open for everything.

moseich

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Quote from: masterzino on January 02, 2019, 09:12:39 AM

Complete non-sense. Statistical data and calculation algorithm... bla bla bla

The real value of Bitcoin (and any other product/service) is what client/buyer is ready to pay. Everything else is just speculation. Opinion at best. Too many people nowadays are taking finance decision on opinions, but facts.

Reading analytics is always difficult. It is necessary to think. It is much easier to jump in the clouds.
And when you jumped on emotions, it still hurts to fall.

bintangkejoraku

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Quote from: mercedes321 on December 28, 2018, 06:10:47 PM

i got a 150Kusd target for 1btc in 15 years, if we get there earlier the better, that is actually a conservative one. the most.

it's too long for me. bull takes place every two years, which means the next bull will occur in 2020. if in 2017 it reaches 20k, I am sure that by 2020 it will reach 200k.

masterzino

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Quote from: moseich on December 28, 2018, 05:13:47 AM

Calculate the real value of Bitcoin is not so difficult.
Take the actual data for open countries. The volume of money supply M1, M2, M3. The number of outlets that serve this currency. And we enter the capitalization of the currency as a whole.
Statistical data and calculation algorithm with links to sources, described in a separate article https://medium.com/@igormoseich/cost-of-the-bitcoin-a2d5d360a8bf
Today I am getting economically - the reasonable price of one Bitcoin is 10347 dollars.
Everything else is from speculators.
And definitely, the rate of Bitcoin will grow over time.
The only thing that I did not take into account in my calculations is the correction coefficient for restricting the circulation of Bitcoin, which unfortunately operates in many countries.

Complete non-sense. Statistical data and calculation algorithm... bla bla bla

The real value of Bitcoin (and any other product/service) is what client/buyer is ready to pay. Everything else is just speculation. Opinion at best. Too many people nowadays are taking finance decision on opinions, but facts.

LoyceV

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Quote from: Kemarit on December 29, 2018, 04:29:11 AM

It won't simply work like that, remember there are still fee's as well and everything is based on supply and demand. There were even reports that say Bitcoin would go down below $6000 because that's the median cost of mining to make it profitable to them. But look what happened.

Mining only got that expensive because the difficulty went up so much, which in tern was caused by more miners joining when the price went up. Ultimately, the price is the only thing that lead to a high difficulty. Without that, one old PC would be enough to mine all Bitcoin blocks and process all transactions!
A lower price means some miners turn off their equipment, the difficulty drops, and mining becomes profitable again for the remaining miners. There will always be an equilibrium, as long as the price doesn't drop fast enought to make many miners quit at the same time. If that happens, the (average) 2 weeks for a difficulty adjustment (and an increase in profitability for the miners) can take much more time. Bitcoin Cash created an emergency difficulty adjustment system for that scenario, which lead to a very volatile difficulty.

gabbie2010

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I will assumed that this a virtual value of the price of bitcoin an ordinary man in the street believes that the real price of bitcoin hovers around $3K7 to $3K8 presently I just hope bitcoin attains that value in the no distant future, of this is achievable if all the fundamental news related to bitcoin are positive.

Marcsymon

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All figures are possible for Bitcoin and its just a matter of time of when these possible figures will going to happen as we all knows that Bitcoin is really unpredictable. Hopefully by this year Bitcoin price will plunged to $10,000 as it will be the sign of the end of this bearish market so lets just wait and see then.

adaseb

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I agree with the above posts, I don't believe the money supply is a good indicator to calculate its value. A more reliable way can be the cost to mine a bitcoin which is not very accurate actually.

Last time I calculated it was somewhere around $5000 a BTC. However keep in mind that this number easily changes when new hardware comes out which has better efficiency and also if the difficulty changes by a great magniture.

Farahtenan

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The market remains the market that matches demand and supply, maybe your calculation is good and inspires you with your attitude and decision when you see it. We will continue to see a positive side to bitcoin because it is indeed worthy to be a top coin.

cellard

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Quote from: KingScorpio on December 28, 2018, 08:29:20 AM

Quote from: franky1 on December 28, 2018, 07:05:02 AM

"outlets" pfft

more easily if comparing bitcoin to gold

187,000 tonnes of gold vs 17.5mill btc currently existing /mined

1btc = 187,000 tonnes / 17.5m btc
1btc= 0.0106857142857143 tonnes
1btc= 0.0106857142857143 tonnes * 32150.7 troy ounces
1btc= 343.5531942857147 ounces *$1278
1btc= $439,060.98

so much fantasy and dreaming in this sect that seeks to achieve global enslavement to their "bitcoin"

No one is forcing anyone to buy, sell, hold, or transact bitcoin at any rate. Meanwhile, you are forced at gunpoint to use fiat.

So who is aiming for global enslavement and who is the real sect here?

moseich

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Quote from: crairezx20 on December 30, 2018, 10:11:15 AM

Good calculation but always think that the crypto market is not as stable as other assets it always depends on the market if the bitcoin is in demand with low supply expect for the price can increase again and reach 5 digit value but this time it doesn't due to many ICOs scam and bad news.

All recommendation and prediction online is not 100% can be happen all of them are just a prediction but since the price of bitcoin in the past years ago is reach $1k I do believe that the price of 1 BTC is $2k or around $3k is enough it means that there is still improvement in the price.

When I started the calculations, I also thought that it would price for Bitcoin 2-3 k. Dollars.
And I was surprised to see the result.
I think the market will go in the direction of 10k for Bitcoin, when the garbage collected by the fraudsters on ICO will settle

crairezx20

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Good calculation but always think that the crypto market is not as stable as other assets it always depends on the market if the bitcoin is in demand with low supply expect for the price can increase again and reach 5 digit value but this time it doesn't due to many ICOs scam and bad news.

All recommendation and prediction online is not 100% can be happen all of them are just a prediction but since the price of bitcoin in the past years ago is reach $1k I do believe that the price of 1 BTC is $2k or around $3k is enough it means that there is still improvement in the price.

5ensei

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There are a lot of random numbers being thrown into the ring, so good to see a calculation based on something other than pure speculation. However, I'm still thinking that it should be at least around $6500 where it was for many months before the bear market

moseich

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Of course, the market is the market.
We are absolutely not interested in the company's capitalization and production costs when we make a purchase of a product or service.
People buy bitcoin for only 4 thousand dollars, which means that it is worth it now.
It does not matter that its mining costs 6 thousand dollars.
But it became interesting to watch the connection between the number of outlets and the price of Bitcoin.

Kevin77

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It is one of calculation how much it SHOULD worth but it definitely doesn't make it anymore valuable than it is today.

I still respect the calculations and work put into this, it must have been a great effort to think of all the calculations and than going out doing them as well. This is not any worse than all those "experts" going on live news shows and talking about how bitcoin should be this or that, they don't know what they are talking about, at least you have some points you can show that backs your claim and I respect that about this.

However, since there is really no limitations or regulations on bitcoin price the only thing we know about the price is "it is what people deem it to be", so if people say bitcoin is 4 thousand dollars, its 4 thousand dollars, if they say its 10 thousand dollars its 10 thousand dollars, it doesn't have any value aside from that.

moseich

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The purpose of my post is an economic assessment of the cost of BTC.
I do not persuade the price to rise down or up. I just became interested in calculating the Bitcoin economy as currency.
Of course the price is dictated by the market, supply and demand.
But the market sooner or later comes to an economically reasonable price.
After analysis, it is safe to say that he will move to 10 k. And it does not matter if he drops to $ 1,000 or soars to $ 20k.

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