Calculate the real value of Bitcoin is not so difficult.
Take the actual data for open countries. The volume of money supply M1, M2, M3. The number of outlets that serve this currency. And we enter the capitalization of the currency as a whole.
Statistical data and calculation algorithm with links to sources, described in a separate article
https://medium.com/@igormoseich/cost-of-the-bitcoin-a2d5d360a8bfToday I am getting economically - the reasonable price of one Bitcoin is 10347 dollars.
Everything else is from speculators.
And definitely, the rate of Bitcoin will grow over time.
The only thing that I did not take into account in my calculations is the correction coefficient for restricting the circulation of Bitcoin, which unfortunately operates in many countries.
"Now we can go to Bitcoin. We take from Coinmap the number of outlets that accept Bitcoin (at the time of writing, there were 14,125 of them). The total bitcoin money supply as of December 23, 2018, is 17,436,737 BTC. Each outlet gives a capitalization of 10,316 ounces of gold, respectively. It turns out 14,125 points give a total bitcoin capitalization of 145,971,400 ounces of gold. We divide this amount by the number of bitcoins and we get one bitcoin equal to 8.37 ounces of gold. Or 10,347 dollars, respectively." An interesting bitcoin calculation, informative.