Take the actual data for open countries. The volume of money supply M1, M2, M3. The number of outlets that serve this currency. And we enter the capitalization of the currency as a whole.
Statistical data and calculation algorithm with links to sources, described in a separate article https://medium.com/@igormoseich/cost-of-the-bitcoin-a2d5d360a8bf
Today I am getting economically - the reasonable price of one Bitcoin is 10347 dollars.
Everything else is from speculators.
And definitely, the rate of Bitcoin will grow over time.
The only thing that I did not take into account in my calculations is the correction coefficient for restricting the circulation of Bitcoin, which unfortunately operates in many countries.
Your calculation is complicated. Bitcoin price is getting balance in cryptocurrency exchanges. And it is about 3500$ now.