It's about noon on the 25th here in KC.
I plan on meeting them in about 6 hours from now (or midnight UTC). After that, we'll decide if we have enough time to do the live test or if we'll just do the hardware portion.
Topic: 1GH/s, 20w, $500 — Butterflylabs, is it a scam? - page 25. (Read 123112 times)
But, I have 99% faith it is all a big elaborate scam 
Soon we'll know...
Yeah well I don't know about you but in my part of the world the time is already 25 Nov and evening already. What time is it in Kansas or whatever ? Any announced time for the "magic" revelations ?
But, I have 99% faith it is all a big elaborate scam
Soon we'll know...
This is going to suck for my GPUs 
But, I have 99% faith it is all a big elaborate scam
Can these :
-mine SolidCoins ?
-mine Litecoins ?
-hack WPA ?
Thanks !
But, I have 99% faith it is all a big elaborate scam
Can these :
-mine SolidCoins ?
-mine Litecoins ?
-hack WPA ?
Thanks !
I will inquire and I don't see any reason they would be opposed to releasing the code to other, more qualified individuals to review the code as well. I will send them the same code I use to test, as opposed to BFL sending them code, assuming they (BFL) approves and someone is both qualified and willing to review.
I don't know about qualified, but I'm certainly willing to review it. I'm assuming it's C/C++.
Yes, that's all I've seen and yes I've reviewed it. I've not had a lot of time to go into minute detail and step through the code as it would potentially operate, but I see nothing nefarious in it. I informed them that whatever they sent me is what I would be compiling and using on my own hardware that they have not had access to prior to the test... so what I've reviewed is what I'll be using to conduct the test(s).
Most of the code is actually already out in the Bitcoin community and well vetted, from what I can tell they've only made some minor changes to to accommodate the box as opposed to a GPU. There's actually some optimization that can be done, I think, to speed things up. If what they have now lives up to the claims, with code optimization, I think you could see an increase in hashing power. But, that is purely speculation on my part.
I will inquire and I don't see any reason they would be opposed to releasing the code to other, more qualified individuals to review the code as well. I will send them the same code I use to test, as opposed to BFL sending them code, assuming they (BFL) approves and someone is both qualified and willing to review.
Most of the code is actually already out in the Bitcoin community and well vetted, from what I can tell they've only made some minor changes to to accommodate the box as opposed to a GPU. There's actually some optimization that can be done, I think, to speed things up. If what they have now lives up to the claims, with code optimization, I think you could see an increase in hashing power. But, that is purely speculation on my part.
I will inquire and I don't see any reason they would be opposed to releasing the code to other, more qualified individuals to review the code as well. I will send them the same code I use to test, as opposed to BFL sending them code, assuming they (BFL) approves and someone is both qualified and willing to review.
BFLabs, how long with the pre-order price on the single be good for?
I have not signed an NDA nor do I plan to and one has never been mentioned. An NDA would be contrary to a public (as in not affiliated with the company) and unbiased test.
I have not fully disclosed everything I have seen in regards to the drivers so far, just out of respect for their privacy prior to launching a product. They have not asked me to do so in any way.
I have not met them in person at this point, but I will be meeting someone from the company this evening, either for some live testing or at least for them to hand over a test unit for the evening for disassembly/pictures.
So at this time, all you've seen is driver source code? Have you had a chance to review it?I have not fully disclosed everything I have seen in regards to the drivers so far, just out of respect for their privacy prior to launching a product. They have not asked me to do so in any way.
I have not met them in person at this point, but I will be meeting someone from the company this evening, either for some live testing or at least for them to hand over a test unit for the evening for disassembly/pictures.
As far as me being in on a scam, anyone who has dealt with me in the past knows that I'm definitely not about that, as I've had plenty of opportunity to scam people out of BTC and USD, and my IRL name and lots of details about me are available to many people who's had dealings with me. It would be pretty easy to track me down if I rob someone or scam them... it would be epic and also epically (is that a word?) stupid of me!
Agreed.
Can't wait to see results 
I have not signed an NDA nor do I plan to and one has never been mentioned. An NDA would be contrary to a public (as in not affiliated with the company) and unbiased test.
I have not fully disclosed everything I have seen in regards to the drivers so far, just out of respect for their privacy prior to launching a product. They have not asked me to do so in any way.
I have not met them in person at this point, but I will be meeting someone from the company this evening, either for some live testing or at least for them to hand over a test unit for the evening for disassembly/pictures.
As far as me being in on a scam, anyone who has dealt with me in the past knows that I'm definitely not about that, as I've had plenty of opportunity to scam people out of BTC and USD, and my IRL name and lots of details about me are available to many people who's had dealings with me. It would be pretty easy to track me down if I rob someone or scam them... it would be epic and also epically (is that a word?) stupid of me!
I have not fully disclosed everything I have seen in regards to the drivers so far, just out of respect for their privacy prior to launching a product. They have not asked me to do so in any way.
I have not met them in person at this point, but I will be meeting someone from the company this evening, either for some live testing or at least for them to hand over a test unit for the evening for disassembly/pictures.
As far as me being in on a scam, anyone who has dealt with me in the past knows that I'm definitely not about that, as I've had plenty of opportunity to scam people out of BTC and USD, and my IRL name and lots of details about me are available to many people who's had dealings with me. It would be pretty easy to track me down if I rob someone or scam them... it would be epic and also epically (is that a word?) stupid of me!
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If these devices are real, I'd buy a hundred of them myself.
Unfortunately, they're probably just going to take their butterfly wings and fly away with your money.
Unfortunately, they're probably just going to take their butterfly wings and fly away with your money.
But if we were to play with the thought that they were building the boards on demand (not the chips themselves) - at least in this pre-order phase - could this tell us anything about their technology? Would it even seem possible to do so, while selling them for $500?
Nobody hand builds boards for production. Building costs are negligible, hand building is error prone, slow and expensive. You may hand build the prototype and you may make a trial run of a dozen or so units (at very high cost) to make sure everything is right before begining production. However the actual production is in as large of volume as you can afford to minimize production costs.
In volume build costs are low. Less than $10 a board likely less than $2 per board given has small & "simple" the boards are. The complexity and cost comes from the processor not the PCB, minor components, or assembly.
So either they have hundreds of boards already completed or no boards (other than prototypes) completed.
But if we were to play with the thought that they were building the boards on demand (not the chips themselves) - at least in this pre-order phase - could this tell us anything about their technology? Would it even seem possible to do so, while selling them for $500?
I can think of no good reason for this. If they are sitting on 100s (or 1000s) of chips, they already have the PCBs, you have the equipment and personnel, you might as well assemble the boards. The only thing that might be produced on call is the alu housing, but even that doesnt seem very likely and wouldnt make much sense if their plan is to sell 100s or more of these.
Could they be building the boards on request?
Certainly it would seem that way - if we assume it's not a scam. Would there be anything wrong with them building the boards as they get in orders, instead of having x boards pre-built and ready to go?
[...]Certainly it would seem that way - if we assume it's not a scam. Would there be anything wrong with them building the boards as they get in orders, instead of having x boards pre-built and ready to go?
In short, even if they could ship in 2 weeks after receiving the order now, it doesnt exactly hurt to have "4-8" weeks on their website. Particularly not with the holiday weeks almost upon us.
But if we were to play with the thought that they were building the boards on demand (not the chips themselves) - at least in this pre-order phase - could this tell us anything about their technology? Would it even seem possible to do so, while selling them for $500?
No, I am no longer taking bets. When I offered them I said with in the next 10 days. You also have to understand that even if I win with P4man I just only break even in terms of US$. Bitcoins price fall is not great for this bet.
Im sure he will accept bets in $ too Goat.
No, I am no longer taking bets. When I offered them I said with in the next 10 days. You also have to understand that even if I win with P4man I just only break even in terms of US$. Bitcoins price fall is not great for this bet.
Im sure he will accept bets in $ too Goat.
Could they be building the boards on request?
Certainly it would seem that way - if we assume it's not a scam. Would there be anything wrong with them building the boards as they get in orders, instead of having x boards pre-built and ready to go?
Certainly it would seem that way - if we assume it's not a scam. Would there be anything wrong with them building the boards as they get in orders, instead of having x boards pre-built and ready to go?
There are many other plausible explanations; like simply not having updated that part yet of the site yet and not having much reason to, until they finish the software and are ready to ship their first board so they could give a more accurate estimate; although that estimate Im sure would also depend on the amount of preorders they are getting.
In short, even if they could ship in 2 weeks after receiving the order now, it doesnt exactly hurt to have "4-8" weeks on their website. Particularly not with the holiday weeks almost upon us.
It is reasonable. But the risk is still there. Pre-orders started in mid-Oct, 8 week delivery puts us in mid-Dec. This gives a two week buffer, (in the holiday season) for shipping. I think they can do it, but still risky.
Well except for the website still advertising 4-8 weeks nearly 6 weeks later.
Certainly it would seem that way - if we assume it's not a scam. Would there be anything wrong with them building the boards as they get in orders, instead of having x boards pre-built and ready to go?
@Goat: I made a very reasonable offer to you as well, considering your estimate of a 96% probability that it's a scam. I understand it if you won't accept it, cause I'd be happy to put up 100 BTC at 10 to 1 odds now. Given reasonable terms, that is. Ie. allowing some time for delays. If they are a scam, your winnings would only be delayed a month or so.
I obviously don't think there's a 96% probability that it's a scam now. A conservative guess from me right now would be 50% (with great uncertainty), I think.
It is reasonable. But the risk is still there. Pre-orders started in mid-Oct, 8 week delivery puts us in mid-Dec. This gives a two week buffer, (in the holiday season) for shipping. I think they can do it, but still risky.
Well except for the website still advertising 4-8 weeks nearly 6 weeks later.
My concern with the bet is the ship date, not with the scam. Although BFL has hit their date estimates thus far, I can see circumstances occurring where they miss the 3Jan12 deadline stated in the bet.
Same concern here. In general you would expect delays; looking at the startup I used to work for, our first standard product was almost 12 months late and still performed a whole lot worse than projected. Then again, what BFL is doing ought to be much less risky with far less unknowns. If its Altera Fast path, then Altera guarantees you it will work if it works on FPGA, and they must have had working FPGAs for a long time. The photos on their site show multiple PCBs, so they probably have working silicon and Inaba is apparently testing one now (meaning the software would work on some level at leas.t) so Im optimistic they can ship at least a few units this year.
But like you, Im more concerned about losing this bet due to a minor slip like buggy software, than losing the bets for being fundamentally wrong.
Since so many things can go wrong I thought the 2 to 1 odds would make it more fair to you. I also gave a window of what 10% or 20% on their numbers to be more fair to you/them. Shat can happen, and my claim is its a scam. So allowances were made. I thought I was being reasonable.
I was talking about the bet on "bets of bitcoin" which leaves BFL no margin whatsoever for missing their promises. That bet I might lose. Im not too concerned about my bet with you, but should point out its only 2-1 odds and not 24-1 as you claim is your assessments of the odds of BFL being legit. Quite a good deal you got there.
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