2014 USD/mBTC Price Prediction Contest - page 3.

bluemoon

member

Activity: 69

Merit: 10

I've now sent my predictions.

Given such boring prices, I find the exercise surprisingly interesting, particularly now I have a record of my early predictions to look back on.

So the tension rises as the quirky scoring system looks about to claim its first victim(s) ... Wink

Anyway, good luck everyone, and may the best man win!

dnaleor

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1000

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I've send my prediction. I made it very bearish but I guess the fox will win this competition. I'll go for the second place Tongue

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 1136

Quote from: Foxpup on August 31, 2014, 10:29:05 AM

Prediction sent. I'm feeling confident.

Quote from: wachtwoord on August 31, 2014, 09:42:21 AM

I wanted to go out because the rally started, not with the price going too low Sad

We all do.

I send my prediction too just in case. I'm expecting to be out in 6 hours though.

Foxpup

legendary

Activity: 4551

Merit: 3445

Vile Vixen and Miss Bitcointalk 2021-2023

Prediction sent. I'm feeling confident.

Quote from: wachtwoord on August 31, 2014, 09:42:21 AM

I wanted to go out because the rally started, not with the price going too low Sad

We all do.

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 1136

Quote from: Foxpup on August 31, 2014, 01:06:38 AM

Quote from: dnaleor on August 29, 2014, 07:41:39 PM

foxpup will do very well if no BTC rally starts in the next weeks...

Or the next hours. Wink

Sorry, wachtwoord.

I think I'm going hold off on my next prediction until I know how much effort I need to put into it.

It looks like I'll be signing off right from first place

I wanted to go out because the rally started, not with the price going too low Sad

dnaleor

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I would have thought that by now, we would already be >1000 USD. This delay is getting frustrating Tongue

Foxpup

legendary

Activity: 4551

Merit: 3445

Vile Vixen and Miss Bitcointalk 2021-2023

Quote from: dnaleor on August 29, 2014, 07:41:39 PM

foxpup will do very well if no BTC rally starts in the next weeks...

Or the next hours. Wink

Sorry, wachtwoord.

I think I'm going hold off on my next prediction until I know how much effort I need to put into it.

dnaleor

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1000

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Quote from: rpietila on August 29, 2014, 05:18:33 PM

The Leaderboard

wachtwoord    7,25
foxpup   6,33
dnaleor   2,46
bluemoon   0,58
sgbett3   -1,44
sgbett1   -1,59
sgbett2   -2,88
sgbett4   -7,45

thx!

Think i'm going for the second place now... foxpup will do very well if no BTC rally starts in the next weeks...

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 1136

Quote from: rpietila on August 29, 2014, 05:22:41 PM

Oh how sweet it is to be in the lead... Cheesy

Sure, but if the price dips below $501.19 before then end of the month I'm still out (above I'll get 2.18 points). Next month will be even more perilous if Bitcoin price keeps being sticky.

I would have been far better off copying my prediction in round 1 to every subsequent round.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Oh how sweet it is to be in the lead... Cheesy

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 1136

Quote from: rpietila on August 29, 2014, 05:18:33 PM

The Leaderboard

wachtwoord    7,25
foxpup   6,33
dnaleor   2,46
bluemoon   0,58
sgbett3   -1,44
sgbett1   -1,59
sgbett2   -2,88
sgbett4   -7,45

Thanks Risto

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

The Leaderboard

wachtwoord    7,25
foxpup   6,33
dnaleor   2,46
bluemoon   0,58
sgbett3   -1,44
sgbett1   -1,59
sgbett2   -2,88
sgbett4   -7,45

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 1136

Quote from: rpietila on August 29, 2014, 12:10:55 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on August 29, 2014, 10:36:00 AM

Quote from: rpietila on August 29, 2014, 03:58:02 AM

Please stop whining. My resourcing is very tight and right now I am stuck doing this myself, which was not the intention. And I hate it. But trying to find a third person to do it and teach her would be even more of a chore. Telling this makes you'all feeling even worse, so I tried to not emphasize it. But what if we just leave the issue of apparent delays behind for good, and concentrate on what we have. I hope sgbett has emailed or linked you the orange numbers. If not, they are also as code below:

Can you please post the official closing price of each of the previous periods? Then we can all calculate our own scores extremely easily and post them here.

I'm complaining because you aren't keeping up with your promises by far and because this should cost you less than 5 minutes. I'm a very patient man so if I'm complaining you should probably see it as an indication of something.

Official closing price every month is the Bitstamp vwa price, which can be seen from Bitcoincharts.

I am about to provide the leaderboard today, even though it does take more than 5 minutes. It is already 6 closed predictions.

I am sorry for the inconvenience, however my ability to do wonderful things is fully dependent on that I don't do things that are boring. Every mention of this is embarrassing to me so might it be possible to stop, please.

Thank you

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: wachtwoord on August 29, 2014, 10:36:00 AM

Quote from: rpietila on August 29, 2014, 03:58:02 AM

Please stop whining. My resourcing is very tight and right now I am stuck doing this myself, which was not the intention. And I hate it. But trying to find a third person to do it and teach her would be even more of a chore. Telling this makes you'all feeling even worse, so I tried to not emphasize it. But what if we just leave the issue of apparent delays behind for good, and concentrate on what we have. I hope sgbett has emailed or linked you the orange numbers. If not, they are also as code below:

Can you please post the official closing price of each of the previous periods? Then we can all calculate our own scores extremely easily and post them here.

I'm complaining because you aren't keeping up with your promises by far and because this should cost you less than 5 minutes. I'm a very patient man so if I'm complaining you should probably see it as an indication of something.

Official closing price every month is the Bitstamp vwa price, which can be seen from Bitcoincharts.

I am about to provide the leaderboard today, even though it does take more than 5 minutes. It is already 6 closed predictions.

I am sorry for the inconvenience, however my ability to do wonderful things is fully dependent on that I don't do things that are boring. Every mention of this is embarrassing to me so might it be possible to stop, please.

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 1136

Quote from: rpietila on August 29, 2014, 03:58:02 AM

Please stop whining. My resourcing is very tight and right now I am stuck doing this myself, which was not the intention. And I hate it. But trying to find a third person to do it and teach her would be even more of a chore. Telling this makes you'all feeling even worse, so I tried to not emphasize it. But what if we just leave the issue of apparent delays behind for good, and concentrate on what we have. I hope sgbett has emailed or linked you the orange numbers. If not, they are also as code below:

Can you please post the official closing price of each of the previous periods? Then we can all calculate our own scores extremely easily and post them here.

I'm complaining because you aren't keeping up with your promises by far and because this should cost you less than 5 minutes. I'm a very patient man so if I'm complaining you should probably see it as an indication of something.

Foxpup

legendary

Activity: 4551

Merit: 3445

Vile Vixen and Miss Bitcointalk 2021-2023

Quote from: dnaleor on August 29, 2014, 07:02:22 AM

May I ask how much you'll get if we stay above 501 USD at the end of this month? Wink

In two out of the four predictions for this month, I assigned the highest probability to the $501-$562 range, in which case I'll get a slightly less monstrous score of 8.60 points this round, for a grand total of 14.93 points. I'm a long-term bull, but I can smell a crash coming a mile away. I can also smell the sweet scent of victory. Grin

dnaleor

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1000

Want privacy? Use Monero!

Quote from: Foxpup on August 29, 2014, 03:20:24 AM

Quote from: dnaleor on August 28, 2014, 09:04:35 PM

lol, I was kinda hoping that we would go below 501 USD (no offence wachtwoord) but now that I know you will get >50 points, I hope it won't happen Tongue

I don't care. Just as long as it's below $501 next month, in which case I'll get >500 points. Hey, wait a minute... Take a closer look at the orange numbers. Did everybody except for us put 0.0001% for everything below $501? These numbers don't make sense otherwise. Undecided

Ii'll "only" get around 100 points in that case.
May I ask how much you'll get if we stay above 501 USD at the end of this month? Wink

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Please stop whining. My resourcing is very tight and right now I am stuck doing this myself, which was not the intention. And I hate it. But trying to find a third person to do it and teach her would be even more of a chore. Telling this makes you'all feeling even worse, so I tried to not emphasize it. But what if we just leave the issue of apparent delays behind for good, and concentrate on what we have. I hope sgbett has emailed or linked you the orange numbers. If not, they are also as code below:

Code:

0,0003 %	0,0003 %	0,0003 %	0,0024 %	0,0024 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0008 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0008 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0008 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0008 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0014 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0024 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0047 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0071 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0071 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0090 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0008 %	0,0090 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0008 %	0,0134 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0008 %	0,0251 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0008 %	0,0461 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0047 %	0,0689 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0047 %	0,0863 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0002 %	0,0071 %	0,0974 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0003 %	0,0071 %	0,1047 %
0,0001 %	0,0002 %	0,0006 %	0,0150 %	0,1189 %
0,0001 %	0,0003 %	0,0007 %	0,0239 %	0,1245 %
0,0002 %	0,0006 %	0,0010 %	0,0289 %	0,1294 %
0,0003 %	0,0008 %	0,0010 %	0,0433 %	0,1337 %
0,0003 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %	0,0532 %	0,1456 %
0,0005 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %	0,0632 %	0,1495 %
0,0006 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %	0,0841 %	0,1729 %
0,0006 %	0,0010 %	0,0124 %	0,1030 %	0,1800 %
0,0006 %	0,0111 %	0,0141 %	0,1189 %	0,1922 %
0,0006 %	0,0111 %	0,0188 %	0,1392 %	0,2025 %
0,0056 %	0,0119 %	0,0259 %	0,1524 %	0,2060 %
0,0056 %	0,0119 %	0,0396 %	0,1647 %	0,2093 %
0,0056 %	0,0133 %	0,0612 %	0,1760 %	0,2209 %
0,0059 %	0,0139 %	0,0960 %	0,1913 %	0,2241 %
0,0100 %	0,0157 %	0,1456 %	0,1992 %	0,2302 %
0,0126 %	0,0331 %	0,1808 %	0,2208 %	0,2248 %
0,0234 %	0,0792 %	0,2027 %	0,2416 %	0,2252 %
0,0495 %	0,2027 %	0,2385 %	0,2670 %	0,2278 %
0,0880 %	0,2652 %	4,2541 %	4,0833 %	3,4685 %
1,9062 %	4,9623 %	5,1710 %	4,5678 %	3,7681 %
3,3896 %	6,2807 %	6,3956 %	5,4216 %	4,4546 %
4,5620 %	7,3320 %	7,2111 %	6,1016 %	4,6185 %
6,8002 %	8,7948 %	8,1924 %	6,8321 %	4,4246 %
8,5508 %	9,5039 %	8,3422 %	7,0132 %	4,4267 %
11,0611 %	10,2643 %	9,3732 %	7,2612 %	3,8337 %
12,0927 %	7,7250 %	6,1920 %	4,6905 %	2,8284 %
11,4653 %	5,3348 %	3,2117 %	2,0598 %	1,5922 %
8,1153 %	3,0341 %	2,0933 %	0,1425 %	1,4035 %
0,3440 %	0,0211 %	0,1934 %	0,0188 %	0,1354 %
0,2156 %	0,0186 %	0,1257 %	0,0180 %	0,1285 %
0,1638 %	0,0162 %	0,1218 %	0,0170 %	0,1188 %
0,1189 %	0,0148 %	0,0953 %	0,0159 %	0,0845 %
0,0946 %	0,0138 %	0,0819 %	0,0138 %	0,0740 %
0,0740 %	0,0116 %	0,0622 %	0,0135 %	0,0727 %
0,0088 %	0,0088 %	0,0500 %	0,0119 %	0,0714 %
0,0049 %	0,0080 %	0,0473 %	0,0115 %	0,0589 %
0,0023 %	0,0074 %	0,0447 %	0,0111 %	0,0102 %
0,0010 %	0,0008 %	0,0278 %	0,0106 %	0,0100 %
0,0005 %	0,0007 %	0,0251 %	0,0084 %	0,0093 %
0,0003 %	0,0006 %	0,0038 %	0,0078 %	0,0032 %
0,0002 %	0,0005 %	0,0032 %	0,0008 %	0,0029 %
0,0001 %	0,0004 %	0,0027 %	0,0007 %	0,0015 %
0,0001 %	0,0003 %	0,0004 %	0,0006 %	0,0007 %
0,0001 %	0,0003 %	0,0003 %	0,0004 %	0,0006 %
0,0001 %	0,0002 %	0,0002 %	0,0003 %	0,0003 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0002 %	0,0001 %	0,0002 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0003 %	0,0003 %	0,0003 %	0,0003 %	0,0003 %

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 1136

Quote from: Foxpup on August 29, 2014, 03:20:24 AM

Quote from: dnaleor on August 28, 2014, 09:04:35 PM

lol, I was kinda hoping that we would go below 501 USD (no offence wachtwoord) but now that I know you will get >50 points, I hope it won't happen Tongue

I don't care. Just as long as it's below $501 next month, in which case I'll get >500 points. Hey, wait a minute... Take a closer look at the orange numbers. Did everybody except for us put 0.0001% for everything below $501? These numbers don't make sense otherwise. Undecided

Starting in round 3 I did that yeah but even in my original prediction I put that down for the end of September and later. We should really have left sub-500 prices behind by now. I actually wouldn't have called my prediction bullish compared with what I thought many would have guessed.

By the way, I'm thinking of having quite a decent score in the current leaderboard (irrespective of whether I might drop out before the end) but to know that for sure I need that leaderboard! Come in Risto, this contest is losing some of its appeal. Undecided

Foxpup

legendary

Activity: 4551

Merit: 3445

Vile Vixen and Miss Bitcointalk 2021-2023

Quote from: dnaleor on August 28, 2014, 09:04:35 PM

lol, I was kinda hoping that we would go below 501 USD (no offence wachtwoord) but now that I know you will get >50 points, I hope it won't happen Tongue

I don't care. Just as long as it's below $501 next month, in which case I'll get >500 points. Hey, wait a minute... Take a closer look at the orange numbers. Did everybody except for us put 0.0001% for everything below $501? These numbers don't make sense otherwise. Undecided

Topic: 2014 USD/mBTC Price Prediction Contest - page 3. (Read 21883 times)