Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) - page 14. (Read 26030 times)

Trading technicals when the market is driven by fundamentals is a fast way to get fucked.

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Symmetrical Triangle
https://redd.it/8ev2ki

Since the 6425 (Bitfinex) low set on 01-APR-2018, the Bitcoin market has rallied 50% to retrace a Fibonacci 61.8% of the downtrend wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.

Prior to the rally, the downtrend wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 came within 95% of the low set on 06-FEB-2018, but failed to exceed it.

It appears converging price action in the Bitcoin market is undergoing a large Symmetrical Triangle formation since the 06-FEB-2018 low.

In regards to the internals of Symmetrical Triangle formation:

—wave-a: Rallied 95% from the 06-FEB to 05-MAR, retracing a 50% Fibonacci of the downtrend wave that began on 06-JAN.

—wave-b: Declined 45% from 05-MAR to 01-APR, retracing a 95% of wave-a.

—wave-c: Rallied 50% from 01-APR to 25-APR, retracing a Fibonacci 61.8% of wave-b at 9767 and thus far appears complete.
If wave-c subdivides, additional upside targets as follows:
1. @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
2. @10571: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of wave-b.
However, should wave-c be complete, it would suggest the entire Symmetrical Triangle forms beneath the psychological 10,000 level.

There are two further waves required to complete the Symmetrical Triangle pattern. Given the converging price action trendlines of the triangle, the following are projections for the two outstanding legs:

—wave-d: Currently underway since 25-APR. Expected to decline and retrace at least a Fibonacci 78.6% of wave-c towards 7140. Converging trendlines of the Symmetrical Triangle would suggest a 30% decline to approx 6750.

—wave-e: The final leg of the Symmetrical Triangle pattern, and the shortest. Expected to retrace between a Fibonacci 61.8% to 78.6% of wave-d, rallying approx 35% towards 8590 to 9100.

The converging trendlines suggest the Symmetrical Triangle pattern ought to complete by mid-May to early-Jun. At which point, the bear market is expected to resume towards 4257 which marks a Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.

Short trade:

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 9187
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 9768
RISK: 6.4 %
REWARD: 56%

Speculative and guesswork Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure not time, as follows:

Well I prefer 2014, cause it had more volume already then 2013 I think so it's more preffarable to see 2014 fractals and it's almost on par with now movement, so 10.6 up to 11.7K bounce should occur before, recourring bear market, and slow total collapse of price into abyss of 3200-3500USD territory.

But yeah they are frickin pumping it like hell. So much lol.

i think this is just old money sloshing around. old dip buyers finally exhausted supply, but it's probably just an intermediate bounce that will be sold into.

the fractals i'm mainly watching for are mid-2013 and early 2014. both call for a 60-80% retrace before the downtrend continues.

but the difference between mid-2013 and 2014 is this: the second leg down in 2013 ended on a higher low. the parallel would be never dropping below $6000 again. i can't rule that out yet.....

80's child actually, so a Xennial. But, probably with the mindset of a 60's hippie Baby Boomer!  

Clever drug puns.....counter-culture pessimist....BTC bear

My analysis suggest that OP is a baby boomer gold investor? 

The three scenarios are still in play:

1. The bounce from the 01-APR-2018 low exceeds 9200 but remains below 10000 before resuming the bear market.
2. The bounce from the 01-APR-2018 low exceeds 10000 but remains below 11700 before resuming the bear market.
3. The bounce from the 01-APR-2018 low exceeds 11700 but remains below 17252 before resuming the bear market.

In regards to probability, would currently weight the aforementioned scenarios as follows:

1. 45%
2. 45%
3. 10%

The first of the Upper Range resistance levels is now approaching, lets see if the significance of the 61.8% golden ratio is going to be meaningful...

Lower Range
  @8440: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
  @9063: 50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.

Upper Range
 @9685: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
 @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
 @10571: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.

Currently, taking out 9187 (Bitfinex) would indicate weakening upside momentum.

Suspect the Bitcoin market is undergoing a large Symmetrical Triangle formation since the 06-FEB-2018 low which may elapse until JUN-2018 before the bear market resumes...

Only second and third option is now in play.
I would be keen onto second, but third is also possible, with this kind of major pumping we have seen now (public isn't buying it - all social trends, with keyword of: Bitcoin, blockchain, cryptocurrency, are down to may/october levels of 2017), so what we are seeing now is probably hedge funds major pump, and thus it would completely agree with 5 min huge candles making up moves + 200-500USD.

They probably want to get out of some positions, thus this major pumping.
We have achieved 70% of volume from January, but there don't seem to be major people's buying it.

But I can be wrong. That's my opinion which I'm entitled to.

fair enough---at least you understand the possibilities. it seemed like you kept re-shorting and stopping out based on your one preferred count. when that happens to me, it usually means "time to step back and re-assess."

do you have any bull counts, where the december-march move is all/part of an intermediate correction?

EW aside, those last three weekly candles wicking into the $6000s would trouble me as a bear. that was a major rejection drawn out over three weeks. a large bounce was warranted. the question is still, at which degree? try counting the december-march move as a complete WXYXZ and it sure looks like we should expect a sizeable bull correction! at these proportions, it could last months too!

Since the Bitcoin bear market began on 17-DEC-2017, there appear to be 6 waves thus far (3 up, 3 down).

A corrective sequence consists of 3,7,11,15...(so on) waves. Therefore, barring any wave subdivisions, at least 1 more wave down is expected to complete a sequence of 7 waves.

Whatever the number of waves in the corrective sequence, the overall structure is a 3 wave a-b-c pattern.

With the aforementioned Elliott Wave guidelines, and given the structure of the Bitcoin bear market thus far, there are 3 alternative scenarios of how the waves may develop (Bitfinex quoted prices):

1. First Chart
The bounce from the 01-APR-2018 low exceeds 9200 but remains below 10000 before resuming the bear market.

2. Second Chart
The bounce from the 01-APR-2018 low exceeds 10000 but remains below 11700 before resuming the bear market.

3. Third Chart
The bounce from the 01-APR-2018 low exceeds 11700 but remains below 17252 before resuming the bear market.

these retrace targets seem....presumptuous. you should have multiple EW counts prepared for multiple outcomes, but it seems like you simply assume that the move from march 4th must be part of a primary (bearish) wave A. and then from that assumption, you derive your retrace targets.

i hate to say, but this is how people misuse EW. they get married to one count and then keep trying to redraw it, rather than being open to multiple counts and admitting when they are wrong.

the entire december-april move may be a primary wave. certainly looks like it could be a complete WXY. in that case, you're gonna get bitten for being so perma bearish. your highest retrace target is under $10k! if this follows 2014, then a correction all the way to the $16000s is possible, even if you're eventual targets turn out correct.

9K is under, but it's in pretty much range, strange, that it's going up, without really supports, supporting on MAs only, and when it's going under some "miracles buys" appears, not strange at all.

Bitcoin market has now reached the second Lower Range target, marking a 41% rally from the 01-APR low:

Lower Range
  @8440: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
  @9063: 50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.

Upper Range
 @9685: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
 @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.

Currently, taking out 8616 (Bitfinex) would indicate weakening upside momentum.

So you seems you would be happy that chinese miners would dictate new world order.

That's ... Not gonna happen .

OP, I guess it is you who are 'high' if you think Bitcoin is still the currency of counterculture.

You seem to live in a kind of fake reality - a one artificially constructed by current financial magnates who usurped the financial power and are actively misleading people so they believe the current system is sustainable and its the only system they have to see during their lives...

Its time to understand Bitcoin is not counterculture currency anymore, but is the currency of the coming generation and hence is the currency of the future world. The ones who don't catch it, and stay in the limits of the fake reality, may be swept away by the wind of change.

BTW, the real counterculture currencies (including different kinds of pot/dope/cannabis coins), didn't see any significant pump today. So your assessment is wrong in all aspects.

So market is now on 'high' literally?

It's so damn concering those hard pumps. It's not normal trading, some entities pump it hard really hard.

April 20th (i.e. 420) — An international counterculture holiday, where advocates gather protesting in civil disobedience to celebrate and consume recreational drugs. Counterculture currencies are also seeing fractals and getting ‘high’.

Since the 01-APR low of 6245 (Bitfinex), the Bitcoin market has now rallied 33% thus far.

The following are Fibonacci retracements of the 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 decline of where the current trip may peak:

Lower Range
  @8440: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
  @9063: 50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.

Upper Range
 @9685: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
 @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.

With rising price creating negative divergences against a declining overbought RSI on the 4-hr timeframe, and already reaching and meandering around the initial target of 8440; the rally is looking baked and is expected to complete within the aforementioned Lower Range targets, where the average is 8752.

Currently, taking out 8262 (Bitfinex) would indicate weakening upside momentum.

When the high wears off, a sober market is expected to resume towards 4257 which represents the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market

Well SL again :/

Yes, low-risk because of tight stop.
At current prices, stop is less than $150 away.
So good risk/reward if the April 15th high isn't exceeded.

Why you think it's low risk? Because of tight stop?
They pushed quite a lot now. Almost my perception have changed, althought I know that's a game behind the scenes.